Showing posts with label SBCCORP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SBCCORP. Show all posts

Monday, 4 May 2015

KLSE: A failed short term trade in AWC

AWC is definitely a failed short term trade. I could have earned a profit of 10% in 2 days, but at the end of the day I ended up losing 10%.

This time, not only my entry price is beautiful, my timing is perfect too.

AWC


I did set a target at the time of buying, i.e. 10% short term trading. This implies a target price of RM 0.490-0.495. The target price is achieved after 2 trading days, I did not sell. A target without strict execution is useless.

Greed has crept in my mind and I "suddenly" decided to increase my target price. While I keep on reminding myself to not make the same mistake, greed has also buried my previous experience.


I do not know what to say, but hoping that I could at least take this lesson seriously.

Saturday, 11 April 2015

About long term investment

This is my 5th year of involvement in KLSE. While surviving KLSE in this period is nothing more than ordinary, I am still glad that I have made it, with a capital growing at a satisfactory rate.

In retrospect, the way I "handle" KLSE is by intraday, short term (<6 months) and medium term (<3 years) tradings.

Intraday tradings were extremely rare, simply because the energy and time spent is too much to bear. Some examples, MAS and CYBERT(don't learn this). All have gone to holland by now.

Short term (<6 months) trading is something that I prefer more. INGRESS, SBCCORP and PRLEXUS are typical examples. Mostly use chart to look for entry price, seeking a return of 10-30% in less than 3 months. Sporadically, there will be chances to earn "fast money" in a few days, i.e. playing rebound, e.g.  PHARMA and TAKAFUL. When this occurs, if you are bold enough, ALL IN.

Medium term (>6 months <3 years) can be torturous at times. But good things come to those who wait. INARI, PNEPCB and SHH are my old buddy now. Return has been very satisfactory. 6 months - 2 years is a period that I am more comfortably to hold a share, because they always end up good return.

Where is my long term investment?

I understand that my current investment style will not last long. When the capital becomes large, so does the stake. At some point, I will like to invest long term -- in the sense to hold a share for at least 3 years.  This is where your "skill" is tested, to see how well you can spot a good counter, as if PBBANK and GENTING in the 1980s, DIGI in the 2000s and DLADY in the 2010s. What type of companies should I look for long term investment?

Are they companies that I really like? For this, I look no further from AirAsia and AAX. It is the airline that enables me to fly between PEN-KUL and KUL-SYD. But sentiment cannot help making decision in the stock market. AirAsia has been dropping for a while, since it hit a top of RM 4.00 in 2012. If you buy AAX since IPO and hold until now then you would have lost a lot. Perhaps there are just too many uncertainties in the airline industry.

Are they companies that I don't like to involve as an individual? This means health care and pharmaceutical industry. Nobody likes to go to hospital, yet everybody needs to go there at some point. Examples include KPJ, PHARMA and IHH.

How about companies that are needed in daily lives? Consumer products. NESTLE, DLADY and others.

At this stage I wouldn't buy any of these securities. I don't look for long term investment now. Long term investment does not make sense to me if the capital is not big enough, e.g. RM 500k. Until then, I can use a portion of this capital to invest "long-term". For now, the first task is still to grow my capital, which is what I have been doing for 5 years.

Monday, 9 June 2014

A brief review: when to sell a share?

Selling a share is a tough decision for me. When I intended to sell a share:
- for which that have an unrealized gain, it is as if I am cutting my limbs.
- for which that have an unrealized loss, it is as if prohibiting the loss to turn into victory.

Perhaps I hang on to these things too long, with too much emotions.

SBCCORP is a typical example:

Bought in Dec 2012 @ 1.04 (before right issue)
Went up to 1.18 at 17 Jan 2013 (before right issue)
An unrealized gain of 4 figures within 1 month. Yet I hang on there, wanting more gain. (I mentioned this before 2013 Q1 Review)
Finally sold @ 1.01 at Feb 2013.

Looking back, I realize two things, that:
I sold it too late, that only took action after it fell from peak price.
I sold it too soon, that I didn't continue holding or the share would have doubled its price in a few months time.

Why would I mention something 1.5 years ago? Because I found that I didn't learn from that experience at all. That I went through the same thing again: 

CHHB:

Bought in Mar 2014 @ 1.48
Went up to 1.61 at 21 Apr 2014
A 9% gain within 1 month. Yet I continue to hold, not even think of taking profit.
Worse comes to worst: top up @ 1.55 Top up CHHB
Current price @ 1.45

Yet I am still holding the share, get nothing for almost 3 months.

Yes I bought both of these shares at a pretty "decent" price. But buying at a low price alone does not guarantee profit. It must be paired with a good timing of selling to maximize profit. 

I keep repeating the same pattern: holding, telling myself that the share is going to move very soon. But as one day turned to two and two days turned to weeks or even months, at the end of the day the opportunity cost that I may have lost may cost me a lot in the waiting. Until the share did move, months would have passed, and by then I would long for an even higher return, which in turn results in not selling AGAIN, which traps myself in this circle eventually.

So how to sell a share? JUST SELL IT when volume comes! If not willing to sell or, then at least take partial profit. Look at these two example, if I sell them when it shot up, the waiting period is within 1 month, and yet I secured profits. Remember: Profit in the account is still the best, not the unrealized profit in the portfolio.

Wednesday, 10 April 2013

心痛

在股市怎样最容易心痛?很简单的。

第一:卖后大起
第二:看到涨了,不敢买,结果他继续涨

入市2年多,这种感觉都差不多麻木了。 只是这一次突然来了那么多走鸡的名单,实在有点气人。

 马后炮一 :DAIMAN。2.00觉得会洗盘。不买。觉得2.20还是不买。你越不买,他越涨给你看。这股还没有爆发之前的走势美到... 。BB收窄到...GPMMA粘到...  也难怪会爆到这样。这个还不会很心痛。毕竟我都没有留意他的走势。



 马后炮二 :FAVCO。看到MUHIBAH早几天被炒。怎么会没有联想到儿子也会被炒的可能?这真的是马后炮高手讲的话了。这股有得看没得吃。


 马后炮三 :CYPARK。太阳能之王。这个开始痛在心理,因为这股在我的 watch list。 鸟,1.6X 看到不买。之前1.50那么多机会不买。1.80跟着KLCI下调到1.50的时候我也不买。结果这种时候跟你来个20%++涨幅。


马后炮四 :SBCCORP。其实我在KLCI第三次跌破1600的时候也开始担心。当时心想亏2餐KFC卖掉。输少当赢。这股观察很久了。结果还是敌不过一时被情绪化的决定。

马后炮五 :PRLEXUS。当时国会久久不要解散。觉得有赚就好,就卖掉了。更可恶的是大减价2天(0.8X),我不肯放掉手中的股换马。结果50%盈利飞走。

以上都是马后炮。股市有早知道,谁还会亏钱?这种走鸡的感觉已经习惯了。

有哪一支放慢脚步,回调洗盘一下,目标价一到,我跟他拼过!


Monday, 1 April 2013

2013 Q1 季度检讨

时光飞走了,3个月就不知道怎么的,一眨眼就过去了。大选还是没来。这个季度想的不是该买什么股,而是该不该买股。大选的消息引发散户 panic selling。今年1月21-22日,指数在2天最大跌幅达70点。没有想到,现在就爬回来了,而且好像还有意思创新高。股市就是这样。

这个季度回酬不错。+7.5% 对比 KLCI的 -1.03。 我很满意。当然,这总存在着进步空间。说实在,什么功课都不做,单单靠着了解股性,图表和去论坛吹水偷师来交易,也可以骗到几口饭真的偷笑了。

回看过去,3个月以来犯了不少错误,以下一一列出,希望以后要交易的时候看回去,可以制止自己重犯。


PRLEXUS卖得太迟!不是目标价没有达到,就只因为太过贪心!见《贪心的后果》。
以后就算没有设定目标价,看到高点也得选择部分套利!

有钱就一直买一直买。钱在户口完全没有放超过1个星期的。实在可恶!PRLEXUS上个星期0.8X 看到我口水一直流,做梦一直流(那么夸张吹水罢了),可是就是没有现金去买!
现金一部分。


INARI资金一个月是多余的。我的买价肯定可以更低一点。这种错误是我投资第一年时才会犯的,怎么到现在还在犯这种错误?


我最爱的红酒,难得给我买在这几个月的最低点(这股的股性我摸透了),结果却因为大选恐慌心态,竟然早早把盈利砍掉。对自己一点信心都没有,怎么行?
好好分析趋势决定去留。最重要的事,别让情绪主宰理智!一旦情绪布满脑袋,判断力肯定大挫,结果就会造成大错!


SBCCORP。给我抓到时机,确实赚了一个很不错的纸上盈利。结果心太贪,不肯套利。KLCI回调一下,盈利瞬间蒸发。实在懊悔不已!
同上,高位总得选择套利!别一直担心卖了会继续升的,越担心情况将会越糟糕!


现在来马后炮也没有用。以后别重犯错误,自然可以让赚钱成为一种习惯。

By CK Tan

Friday, 8 February 2013

卖股的难度

昨天股市开低,早上9点开市就一路下滑跌破1600点。当时最低是1597. 我有看盘。心慌了。第二次跌破心里关口。我心想还是把票卖了吧。

当时就把SBC套现了。看回去还真惭愧。一样的错误犯了又犯。虽然说不至于亏大,可是赚了不会卖的老毛病还是一直发作。结果现在SBC回归原点,什么都没得到。空欢喜一场。看回去会觉得可惜,当时却不这么觉得。

 

什么股都是这样。会买不回卖。结果每次都不能落袋平安。下次真要牢牢记着这次的经验了。赚了也烦恼,现在没得赚了也烦恼,这怎么行?买股是不可以有这种心态的。吸取经验,以后赚了觉得够了就放手吧!

这招让指数跌破1600关口的招数对散户来说还蛮有效的。看到跌破了很多人都会急着卖。结果早上10时左右指数就回升了。竟然还可以以收高闭市。这说明了每天看盘的反而更容易被影响。不看还好,一看就想要交易,这往往是错误的决定。

还有,这次的跌幅也让很多有涨幅的股都回到原点。像我之前交易过的红酒,卖后升,心痛。跟自己说没有跌回目标价是不会买回的。昨天来到0.370了。已经达到目标价。问题是面对这种大市,我该不该下手?这种情况之前也是遇过的。经验告诉我既然目标价来了,就不用想那么多,下手吧。结果到底如何,相信短期自有答案。

上个星期上市的CAP吧。中国股就当做透明就好了。永远别动!看看马股上市的中国股,有那个有好下场的?真替那些1.00以上买入CAP的散户可怜。这庄不是普通的凶狠!玩不过的!

Wednesday, 16 January 2013

再接再厉 让我拿个红包吧!

走势非常漂亮,只要突破1.16的前期高点,那么就可以继续冲了。这庄玩T+3是玩不过的,肯定会被洗出局的。


股性:

喜欢玩长上影线。这股的上影线pattern很多的。相信是为了吓走拿票的人。


来吧来吧,让我拿个新年红包!相信好戏不远了。:D

Friday, 11 January 2013

最近有动静的旧好

这股去年交易过一次。看这里。最近量来了。价量齐升,是好事。可是不知道庄要怎样?以趋势来看是想来一个涨潮的。这几天都收在1.07以上,是去年2月的阻力。2012年8月尝试突破,可是最后还是软了下来。这次又会如何?



这个也是回头草来的。去年交易过一次。这次看到旧好有动静就买个意思。我喜欢交易同样的几个股,因为观察久了,股性都了解的差不多了。至少没那么容易被套。

这一次只要突破1.16,那么相信后市可期!如果不能那么就要考虑走人了。

Saturday, 7 April 2012

迄今最满意的交易 - 2个月净赚16%

这是我的一个交易记录。接触了股票一年多,交易了不少次,不过也不多。这是最满意的交易了:
SBCCORP

首先要感谢Investalks的瓜子介绍这只股。一直都在留意。去年的12月就看到目标价来了。就排了一下,然后去睡午觉了。午觉醒来就看到All Matched了。


不到2个星期,看到机会又来了。那时是Design的Presentation吧。完了后人家在看facebook,我就打开交易系统来排队。结果下午回去又All Matched了。


就这样买够了(当然后来嫌买太少了=.='',典型散户的心态)。过后股价在2012年1月尾就爆了起来。连续几天大涨。我看到后真的开心到不会讲!

过后股价冲破RM1.00,最高做1.07.当时我有另外的目标了,只只有暂时告别它了,1.02卖掉。不高2个月,扣掉Broker Fee还净赚接近16%。这真是非常棒的交易!我真的为自己感到自豪、骄傲!虽然才赚那么几百令吉,可是我才用了2千令吉,不到2个月就赚了300令吉,这可是非常难得的。

以后就是要做这种交易。要常常提醒自己:买价到了才买。不要冲动地买股。