Showing posts with label Return. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Return. Show all posts

Saturday, 11 July 2015

2015 Q2 Review

The total transaction in this quarter was very high, probably the highest in my history.

My portfolio reached a pinnacle on 23rd Apr, which have declined since then as KLCI has been dropping continuously. Indulging myself in insatiable greed, I saw many counters that I hold turned from green to red, from earning to losing. AWC and PRIVA are only a fraction of examples. I experience the highs and lows of the rise and fall in my portfolio, feeling completely numb about the change in numbers.

The transaction involving call warrant in this quarter has far exceeded the total call warrant transaction for the past 4.5 years. After all these years, I have finally felt comfortable to trade call warrant. The experience is: taking profit on call warrant is way too important. You can't hang on to call warrant like the way I used to do with a mother share. When you see a reverse trend, it is time to sell regardless of the return.

Going to the end of June, the Greece drama and the possibility of a downgrade in Malaysia credit rating have proven that my own insight into the market was right. This marks a great advance in my investment life: to be able to insist on my own view and not being swayed by the others. Yet I know that I still have a long way to go, for having zero experience in a real bearish market.

The investment return will remain undisclosed since now.

Friday, 4 April 2014

2014 Q1 Review

Return: satisfied.

Transactions: 3

1. Top up PNEPCB
This transaction did pull up my average price. So I actually endured the "pain" when I topped up -- already 2X of my first entry price, how could I still buy it? But I don't want to regret, and this share did not disappoint me. It "hurts" me in the sense when seeing the % return "decreased dramatically", however, in terms of amount, the return is of course higher. 

2. Buy INARI-WA
I used to think that an investment of less than 2k wouldn't make me any huge return, at most a few hundreds in short time. But INARI-WA has really "broken my glasses". For this small amount of investment, the return is really surprising in 1 month time. This shows the power of investment, of how money is being duplicated. 

3. Buy CHHB
Clearly a "follow wind" trade, from guazi in Investalks. Buy at low volume, not too bad. 

Dividends 2
1. INARI 1.5 cent
2. INSAS 1 cent

Review:
This results show that I don't have to trade frequently to pursue for huge return. In fact, buy and hold may be the best way for high return - just do nothing and wait for the return, isn't this the best part of investment?

Yes, I could have sold INARI at high price and then wait for adjustment and then go in again, but how could I catch the moment precisely? What if I miss it, and then just let the rest of the return gone?

Yes, I could have sold PNEPCB on 14 Feb 2014 @ RM 0.84 and switch share for another return. And until today it did prove working, since PNEPCB still hovering around this price, but WHAT IF? I am loyal to this share, really feel reluctant to sell at this price though.

After all, it is easier said than done. When my capital gets larger, when I have some cash to play really short term, then I can go for different trading style. For now, I am satisfied with my return.

Saturday, 11 January 2014

My share doubled its price, i.e. "kai fan"

Last month I just wrote something about a share that I've hold for the longest time.

Yesterday, I mentioned that I really look forward to my first "kai fan" share, i.e. 100% return, in 2013 review.

Note: "kai fan" = 开番 in mandarin
                = "open slip" by direct translation (meaningless)
                = doubled share price in English term

To my surprise, the share that I look forward to be the first share that doubled its price is not the first share that doubled its price in my portfolio. I am still very excited to see the first 100% in my portfolio, finally, after 3 years of stock investment.

pnepcb double share price


I've hold this for 13 months. Not too bad after seeing this return. But the process is not that easy, especially if you look at the market everyday. This stock can be completely deadly for weeks and months, with only small volume traded.

The weightage of this share was 25% of my total capital by the time I bought in. Although I would think of buying not enough (greed has no bounds), but even if I put in a large portion of my capital, say 50%, being half of my capital locked in there for so long, how could I go through the process and how much opportunity would I lost? After all, there is no regret in stock market. The fact is, nobody will know when would a share move, just like this one, near to 50% rise in 2 days, how could one speculate this? Even tough you really look at this share all the time, the energy and time that you spent on it would not worth it too. It is impossible to know when a share will move, so the only way we can do is buy and hold. Buy before it moves. As long as you are confident with your choice, just hold.

Ironically, my portfolio seems to hint me to reduce my frequent trade in stock market -- I would expect INARI to double its price first, but at last is this "black horse", of which I've hold for so long that jump the queue. Is like telling me that as long as you are confident with a share, just hold, time will bring you the return that you deserve. I will remember this lesson. 

Now, question comes: when to sell it? I don't really have a target price for this. If really have one, I would say at least RM 0.80. But now I still don't see any reason to sell it -- this new high was broken by a record high volume too, nice chart!

Also, today the stock closed at Buy 0.595 & Sell 0.600 with a sell of 13000+ lots, i.e. a lot as compared to usual queue of 200-500 lots. I would say that this is a "fake" resistance, as most of the shares are in the big fish hand. Today high of 0.600 has only traded for 2 lots, an obvious act by retail investors. I couldn't print screen of the queue tough, after Bursa has upgraded its trading system to BTS2. It wouldn't take immediate time to break 0.600, I hope so, as this share should rest for a while now before continue moving.


Finally, some Manglish, i.e. Malaysian English. Whenever I talked to someone that I have this share, people will look at it and say:

this kind of stock can buy meh?

no volume one, how to buy?

like that need to hold how long? 

like this can earn money meh? 

Friday, 10 January 2014

2013 review: part 5 (end)

In summary, 2013 breaks several personal investment records: (it's easy to break though, cause I am only 3 years in KLSE)

  1. record loss of a single share, in terms of amount -- not something worth bragging
  2. record earn of single share, in terms of amount -- something I am very thankful for
  3. record dividend income, a bonus for me, still wish to get more dividend this year
Several mistake that (hopefully) can never be repeated:

  1. There is nothing like what I should have earned from a bullish market. The stock market does not owe me anything. That kind of thinking and attitude will only make me lost even more.
  2. It turns out that holding 0% share in a bullish market can make me to lose control in stock market for months. I am very grateful for the time this lesson came, fortunately it did not plunge by the time I got in to "revenge". Hopefully I will remember this lesson for years. Never fight with the market.
  3. Before buy / sell a share, read the quotes and experience that I've gone through before.
  4. All in style works pretty well when the capital is small, however, the style will need to be adjusted ones the capital gets bigger. All in a share using large capital is too risky - you don't have any more cash to buy other share or average down when the opportunity comes.
This year, I enthusiastically wait for my 100% single share return, I am pretty sure it will come very soon, and then only see if I want to continue holding or sell. Just like what typical Malaysians would say "later only see how lah". 

Dividend "sneak-peak": one to come next week (INARI), one to come next month if I hold the share (INSAS), which I probably will. "money, nobody will think it is too much one mah"

One more expectation: surprise dividend



After 13 years, this company paid out a dividend last year, announced on 29 Jan 2013. I was very happy to receive the dividend last year, and expect something this year too, hopefully not too long. Based on last month and today's performance (+17%), I guess something is coming very soon (less a question than a statement).


Tuesday, 7 January 2014

2013 review: part 4

I changed to INARI. This was quite a hot share in KLSE in 2013. This share has something to do with me. It was first listed on 19 July 2011, where I treated it as "one night stand", i.e. only hold for 1 day and sell.

In Feb 2013, I suddenly thought of it, and observe and took profit  not long after that. I bought it back later, this is very unusual for me, I don't usually bought back a share which the price is higher than then price that I've sold. But I don't want to regret anymore. Then, I hold it until now.

Since I've mentioned this share, let me share my view on it. Few weeks back, some in the Investalks forum said that the financial report look suspicious, especially from the cash flow side. I am not an expert in this, so can't comment about it. Technically, I found no reason to sell this share at this point.

INARI


Look at the graph:

All circle regions, i.e. pulling period were accompanied by big volume. Whenever there is a relatively high volume, the candle will be big white. And it doesn't move non-stop, instead, it move up steadily, move and rest, move and adjust. During adjustment, volume are small. 

Then, 3 vertical lines shows that whenever a white candle came, the volume is relatively higher. No exception.

This graph is just beautiful, so why sell it at this point? More importantly, I am really looking forward for my 1st "kai fan" share, i.e. a share that double its price.

I am very fortunate to have swifted to this share, and hold it until now.

[to be continued]

Saturday, 4 January 2014

2013 review: part 3

I bought and wait, repeating this for several shares, until I realized that I have lost enough -- lost all earning from the beginning of this year. The last mistake I made was MAYBULK-CI -- ALL IN. When would I think of all in a call warrant in a normal situation? I do know how risky it is to all in call warrant, but I just wanted something back at that time. Kind of revenge, wasn't it?

I started collecting the CW in July, and finished all my cash in August - hoping that I can turn the table in one hit - too naive! Not long after that, world stock market "crashed", or more correctly if looking back now, adjusted. So did KLCI, it has no privilege against the world stock market.

KLCI august chart


MAYBULK is not like NESTLE or BAT, is not a defensive stock. So it followed KLCI pattern. 

Maybulk-CI


On 22 Aug 2013, KLCI opened with a gap, downwards. I decided to cut loss early in the morning - a right decision finally. For several consecutive days, Maybulk-CI went down to as low as 0.135, which I was fortunate. But not long after that, it climbed back to the price I sold, even went to as high as 0.325. While it may seem that if I hold until then, I could have earned some money, but I wouldn't sell even it is 0.325 though - my greed has no bounds. This is something I need to improve.

Maybulk-CI expired on 6 Dec 2013, at the same price that I have sold. Even if I hold until the end, it doesn't cost me to lose more in terms of capital, but it does cost me to lose time opportunity, a very important cost in the stock market - I could have switched share and manage to secure some earning, which I did.


[to be continued]

Thursday, 2 January 2014

2013 review: part 2

Looking back, it is not really hard to earn >26% a year in a stock market in 2013 -- with the condition that the capital is not big. When the capital is not big, simply "all in" a share can easily bring you a huge return.
Several shares that, at least double its price, from my memory -- DSONIC, INARI, TNLOGIS, MYEG, PWROOT, HOMERIZ, NAIM, PRLEXUS, HLCAP, HUAYANG etc.

Even not doubling the share price, a lot of share can grow >26% a year, providing that you know how to sell -- MMODE, REDTONE, INSAS, MAGNI, OLDTOWN, AEONCR, SBCCORP etc.

But how could I struggle to achieve my aim?

I still remember, right after GE13, construction shares fly like angels. While I am holding 100% cash, it is really not a good feeling, and my weakness are totally reflected in the stock market. After 1 week of GE13, the construction shares still kept rising, I really cannot tahan (stand), I all in GAMUDA-WD -- a very rash deicsion, without looking at the chart, volume, without even queuing, directly buy from seller. This is in contrast what I used to do -- always find a safe entry price. The market has made me to lose control.

GAMUDA

I went in 13 May, then sell on 14 May, making a profit of just 0.5%. Why would I be so impatience while I can earn 15% if I sell a week later? I just want the share I bought to fly INSTANTLY, because, deep in my mind, I have "lost" 1 week of earning from 6 May to 13 May, so I would like this to be COMPENSATED IMMEDIATELY. That was the beginning of my mistake. I couldn't wait even if it is just one day. In my mind, I want to find something to recover my "loss" during 6-13 May. Thinking back, that thought was HORRIBLE. All decisions are made emotionally. What if the market just crash at that time? 

Following that, I kept on hantam (i.e. all in), changing from share to share, to seek for "compensation", of what I thought I SHOULD HAVE EARNED. That made me lost EVEN MORE. Not only a loss in terms of capital, but the directional loss in stock market as well. What ever experienced that I learned previously was completely forgotten. 



[to be continued]

Wednesday, 1 January 2014

2013 review: part 1

Thankfully, my target is achieved by the end of the year, thanks to the share that I bought last quarter, that brings me a record paper gain, or my investment return will be in red.

For 2013, I still use the same technique as in 2012 - observe, buy in, wait and sell. This is in total contrast of what I planned at the end of 2012.What is planned is not delivered, especially the 30% cash part, I did not keep a 30% cash all the time. In fact, I all in all the time. How come like that one? Greed.

At 1H of the year, my return was negative. The bullish market after election reflects my weakness in stock market, I went in emotionally, without any rationale.  It costs me a big loss. Then, knowing that my target is even further away, I kept on doing the wrong thing - all in a call warrant. This is just too scary for me. Fortunately I admitted my mistake,cut lost within 1 month, still incurring a lost of 2k.

The turning point is in August, where I all in a share that I traded previously, that brings me the return I have today.


Dividend is a total bonus for me when I focus on capital gain- RM 998.30, touching 4 figures, that is surreal. And one more dividend to come in January, already ex in Dec 2013, I love dividend. 



Tuesday, 2 July 2013

2013 Q2 季度检讨

这个季度成绩,一句话:不及格。总资本 -10.63% 对比 KLCI 的 +6.1% (Q2)。半年成绩 -5.76%。

更多的交易都有记录:
大选前操作分析1

大选前操作分析2

大选前操作分析3 


大选前操作分析 -- 结论

意味着今年所有盈利尽数回吐。包括大选前认为做得不错交易尽数回吐。原因:

1)大选前空仓。大选后看到综指不断上涨,安奈不住情绪,立刻中套。要说空仓看到指数大涨,我还是第一次遇过。我失去了理性,看到就买,看到就买。结果一买就是中套。

2)之前已经找到交易的感觉瞬间不见。那种找到心水价来买股的感觉,竟然被综指的上涨冲掉了。脑袋想的就是“再不买就没有得买了”。结果一买就是亏损。一买立刻中套。

很多股项,我错过了就没有追的。这一次怎么会有那种“不买就没有得买”的感觉?都怪自己被综指 5月6号的大涨吓坏了。害怕再不买盈利就会跑掉。因为害怕赚不到钱而买股的心态,要怎么去赚钱?


没有得回头,只有吸取经验。当初被套的经验又来了。原来以前被套后,有了几次不错的盈利就会完全把被套的经验忘掉。看来这也是一种经验。

还有,记得大选前空仓的错误。太多散户这样子做了。庄家不会跟你来同一套的。当初信心不够坚定,现在马后炮也没有用了。

还剩下半年,今年的目标必须达成。

Monday, 1 April 2013

2013 Q1 季度检讨

时光飞走了,3个月就不知道怎么的,一眨眼就过去了。大选还是没来。这个季度想的不是该买什么股,而是该不该买股。大选的消息引发散户 panic selling。今年1月21-22日,指数在2天最大跌幅达70点。没有想到,现在就爬回来了,而且好像还有意思创新高。股市就是这样。

这个季度回酬不错。+7.5% 对比 KLCI的 -1.03。 我很满意。当然,这总存在着进步空间。说实在,什么功课都不做,单单靠着了解股性,图表和去论坛吹水偷师来交易,也可以骗到几口饭真的偷笑了。

回看过去,3个月以来犯了不少错误,以下一一列出,希望以后要交易的时候看回去,可以制止自己重犯。


PRLEXUS卖得太迟!不是目标价没有达到,就只因为太过贪心!见《贪心的后果》。
以后就算没有设定目标价,看到高点也得选择部分套利!

有钱就一直买一直买。钱在户口完全没有放超过1个星期的。实在可恶!PRLEXUS上个星期0.8X 看到我口水一直流,做梦一直流(那么夸张吹水罢了),可是就是没有现金去买!
现金一部分。


INARI资金一个月是多余的。我的买价肯定可以更低一点。这种错误是我投资第一年时才会犯的,怎么到现在还在犯这种错误?


我最爱的红酒,难得给我买在这几个月的最低点(这股的股性我摸透了),结果却因为大选恐慌心态,竟然早早把盈利砍掉。对自己一点信心都没有,怎么行?
好好分析趋势决定去留。最重要的事,别让情绪主宰理智!一旦情绪布满脑袋,判断力肯定大挫,结果就会造成大错!


SBCCORP。给我抓到时机,确实赚了一个很不错的纸上盈利。结果心太贪,不肯套利。KLCI回调一下,盈利瞬间蒸发。实在懊悔不已!
同上,高位总得选择套利!别一直担心卖了会继续升的,越担心情况将会越糟糕!


现在来马后炮也没有用。以后别重犯错误,自然可以让赚钱成为一种习惯。

By CK Tan

Friday, 22 February 2013

贪心的后果

卖股永远比买股难。经历过的人就可以感同身受。为什么会难?其实最主要的原因就是赚了更贪,亏了不肯止损!说到来,就是心态问题。

说一个教训:之前有立下一个规矩,卖股的其中一个规矩,是这样的:

因为目标价到了。如果再升,在设立更高的take profit price。跌到立刻卖!教训:ARMADA

当初的ARMADA上市第一天我不管3721买入,结果设定目标价4.14放手。当天闭市就是这个价钱。我没有卖。隔天早上起来的情况是很明显,冲到4.30++,我越看越爽,还不肯卖!同样的心态,希望继续涨。结果到最后跌回来。我4.14出场。虽然还可以卖在目标价,可是总感觉少赚了。所以就写了这样一条卖股的规则。比如说上到4.30了,我可以set新的目标价4.25,跌到4.25不可以犹豫,卖!

很明显我完全忘了这个教训。PR在几个星期前曾经去到1.20++。当初我买进的时候告诉自己目标价是1.00. 结果目标价到了没有卖。去到1.10++,我也没有把目标价调高来卖,心中那个贪得无厌的心还一直奢望继续涨。那条写好的教训好像没有存在一样。继续奢望他涨。目标价也没有提高,也没有告诉自己说无论如何,下调1.10立刻卖。没有。好像不曾经历过一样,继续抱票。

 
结果虽然不至于亏,但是至少10%的盈利飞走了。只因为我的贪心。贪得无厌了。最后的卖价竟然还少过本来的RM1.00. 这就是下场。
 
这次会卖票的因素主要考虑到主力打算让这股继续沉默一段时间,再加上国会解散的消息一直传出,市场对此非常敏感,还是不想跟大势作对。
 
谨此记录一次错误。今年还有10个月的时间,要朝向目标前进。

 

Sunday, 30 December 2012

2012 年尾结账

2012年就这样来到了尾声。看一看今年的回酬,有达到目标。这是我感到非常欣慰的。比起去年进步太多了。回望今年的起起落落,实在感到感叹万分。

今年所采用的策略都是倾向于短线的,就是持股少过3个月。通常就是观察 - 找到目标价 - 买进 - 等待。等待时期通常是2个月就可以看到回酬。只因为我目前资金小,才使用这种方法。我很清楚的知道今年的回酬很大因素都是运气来的。并且这个方法是不能够长期使用的。

面对新的一年,有必要调整一下自己的作风了。2013年的目标回酬是至少20%。资金增加了一点,可以开始分配投资方法:

  • 30% 买进好股,尤其是属于黑马的
  • 30% 使用同样策略
  • 10% 投机CW
  • 30% Free Cash 等待机会使用。

可是这毕竟是计划。在现实中计划总赶不上变化的。像我这样,每次一有Free Cash就会乱买一通,实在不像话。这一点有必要节制。每次乱买后看到更好的就不能买了,太可惜了。Free Cash太重要了。在不稳定的世道,现在随时是翻身的机会!所以明年无论如何都得保留一部分的现金做后盾!

今年我终于看清楚了人生的目标。有了一个奋斗的目标才不至于迷失在人生的道路上。为了理想,这条路无论多艰辛,都得走下去!