Showing posts with label PNEPCB. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PNEPCB. Show all posts

Saturday, 11 April 2015

About long term investment

This is my 5th year of involvement in KLSE. While surviving KLSE in this period is nothing more than ordinary, I am still glad that I have made it, with a capital growing at a satisfactory rate.

In retrospect, the way I "handle" KLSE is by intraday, short term (<6 months) and medium term (<3 years) tradings.

Intraday tradings were extremely rare, simply because the energy and time spent is too much to bear. Some examples, MAS and CYBERT(don't learn this). All have gone to holland by now.

Short term (<6 months) trading is something that I prefer more. INGRESS, SBCCORP and PRLEXUS are typical examples. Mostly use chart to look for entry price, seeking a return of 10-30% in less than 3 months. Sporadically, there will be chances to earn "fast money" in a few days, i.e. playing rebound, e.g.  PHARMA and TAKAFUL. When this occurs, if you are bold enough, ALL IN.

Medium term (>6 months <3 years) can be torturous at times. But good things come to those who wait. INARI, PNEPCB and SHH are my old buddy now. Return has been very satisfactory. 6 months - 2 years is a period that I am more comfortably to hold a share, because they always end up good return.

Where is my long term investment?

I understand that my current investment style will not last long. When the capital becomes large, so does the stake. At some point, I will like to invest long term -- in the sense to hold a share for at least 3 years.  This is where your "skill" is tested, to see how well you can spot a good counter, as if PBBANK and GENTING in the 1980s, DIGI in the 2000s and DLADY in the 2010s. What type of companies should I look for long term investment?

Are they companies that I really like? For this, I look no further from AirAsia and AAX. It is the airline that enables me to fly between PEN-KUL and KUL-SYD. But sentiment cannot help making decision in the stock market. AirAsia has been dropping for a while, since it hit a top of RM 4.00 in 2012. If you buy AAX since IPO and hold until now then you would have lost a lot. Perhaps there are just too many uncertainties in the airline industry.

Are they companies that I don't like to involve as an individual? This means health care and pharmaceutical industry. Nobody likes to go to hospital, yet everybody needs to go there at some point. Examples include KPJ, PHARMA and IHH.

How about companies that are needed in daily lives? Consumer products. NESTLE, DLADY and others.

At this stage I wouldn't buy any of these securities. I don't look for long term investment now. Long term investment does not make sense to me if the capital is not big enough, e.g. RM 500k. Until then, I can use a portion of this capital to invest "long-term". For now, the first task is still to grow my capital, which is what I have been doing for 5 years.

Thursday, 9 October 2014

2014 Q3 Review

Return: +4.5% vs KLCI -1.9% (3 months)

Transactions: 3

 1. Sell PNE
I've been holding this share for 1.5 years. Not a bad return. Fortunately I have enough patience to wait for it. Thanks PNE. But one thing I must remember is that luck is an important factor. Who knows if it wouldn't move until 3 or 5 years? So I am really happy with this transaction.

2. Sell INSAS
This share has been grueling to me, finally cannot tahan (cannoot stand) and Sell INSAS. I don't have the patience that I have for PNE. Maybe one day in the future I will return, who knows?

3. Buy GHL
I love this transaction. This brings back me the "feeling" of short-term trading. I used to have this feeling, but the experience seems to disappear when I indulge myself too much in the stock market. Luckily I've regained this "feeling". Needless to say more, look at the chart:


9-9-2014: gap up with volume. I refrained from chasing high.

10-9-2014 to 18-9-2014: consolidation with low volume. I observed the movement. Telling myself that my target entry price will be around RM 1.05. Why? Because the closing price before gap up is RM 1.04. A "sincere" consolidation process shouldn't go below RM 1.04.

17-9-2014 already went down to RM 1.03, is in my entry price. But I did not look at the stock market on that day.

18-9-2014 I have something to do in the morning. Wait until I look at the price was already trading at RM 1.07. I didn't budge on the entry price this time. I queued for RM 1.05 and I just do my own thing. And it did match after that. I enjoyed an immediate return in a short time. What more could I ask for?

This is the trading style that I am looking at: wait for consolidation, find an entry price, do not chase high. Just let it happens its own way. If the transaction is not matched, just look for other opportunity. 

Saturday, 26 July 2014

KLSE: Thanks PNE, Bye PNE

My first entry price is 0.295. At that time, the relevance for me to hold a share which is not making profit is the cash/share > share price:

Total share: 65.7 M
Total cash (@ 30/9/2013): 24.2 M
Cash/share = RM 0.37

RM 0.295/share to buy a share that has a cash/share of RM 0.37, too good to be true, isn't it?

When the share went up to RM 0.60, I am still holding it. I convinced myself that the relevance now is the NTA price of RM 0.94. That the share is traded at a price well lower than its NTA/share. So I still holding that.

When it went up to RM 1.10, I keep holding. This is where all relevance turns into irrelevance, all rationality becomes irrationality. There is no fundamentals to support this share at this price. Yet I even think of waiting the share to flip twice (i.e. 300% return). But when volume comes, I know that it is time to sell, regardless of what's going to happen next.

Looking back, the price movements come in 4 rounds. I am surprise that I can wait until the 4th round. I might have still kept holding it,  had it not been the candle on 2nd July 2014, where the volume is just too scary for me:

PNEPCB


I felt a sense of freedom after selling. And I know that is a correct decision to have some cash on hand.

P/S:
This company has some direct business transactions recently, and it involved a large amount of shares:

26 June 2014: 5M shares dispose through direct business transaction.
1 July 2014:  14M of shares  dispose through direct business transaction. (gee, this is substantial considering that the total share is only 65.7M) 

And recently many patterns come out, change in boardroom, change in director's interest etc: PNEPCB announcement 

The price for direct deal is RM 1.10, which is higher than the current market price. I do not know what is the intention. And there is no point dwelling into the reason, cause you will never know what is going on.

The important thing is: I am free from it. That's it.

Friday, 4 April 2014

2014 Q1 Review

Return: satisfied.

Transactions: 3

1. Top up PNEPCB
This transaction did pull up my average price. So I actually endured the "pain" when I topped up -- already 2X of my first entry price, how could I still buy it? But I don't want to regret, and this share did not disappoint me. It "hurts" me in the sense when seeing the % return "decreased dramatically", however, in terms of amount, the return is of course higher. 

2. Buy INARI-WA
I used to think that an investment of less than 2k wouldn't make me any huge return, at most a few hundreds in short time. But INARI-WA has really "broken my glasses". For this small amount of investment, the return is really surprising in 1 month time. This shows the power of investment, of how money is being duplicated. 

3. Buy CHHB
Clearly a "follow wind" trade, from guazi in Investalks. Buy at low volume, not too bad. 

Dividends 2
1. INARI 1.5 cent
2. INSAS 1 cent

Review:
This results show that I don't have to trade frequently to pursue for huge return. In fact, buy and hold may be the best way for high return - just do nothing and wait for the return, isn't this the best part of investment?

Yes, I could have sold INARI at high price and then wait for adjustment and then go in again, but how could I catch the moment precisely? What if I miss it, and then just let the rest of the return gone?

Yes, I could have sold PNEPCB on 14 Feb 2014 @ RM 0.84 and switch share for another return. And until today it did prove working, since PNEPCB still hovering around this price, but WHAT IF? I am loyal to this share, really feel reluctant to sell at this price though.

After all, it is easier said than done. When my capital gets larger, when I have some cash to play really short term, then I can go for different trading style. For now, I am satisfied with my return.

Thursday, 13 February 2014

KLSE: without a target price, what triggers a sell?

I top up pne two weeks ago, during the washing period, a very good chance to top up: steady price with low volume. My top up price isn't that beautiful, because at the end of Jan when US market plunged 2%+ in a day, it came down to as low as 0.490. That day causes quite a shock in global market, but the heavy selling abates few days after that.

Today has proven that my top up decision was right - 28%+ a day, where to find such a huge return in one day?

I observed very carefully during the trading hours. This is a very good chance to see how the big fish push up a stock. At 0.700, there is a very obvious washing process - last for a good 10 minutes before continuing buy up.

When the queue is:

Buy Qty   Buy       Sell    Sell Qty
   100     0.700     0.705   200

Then sell down transaction will occur, either traded in 27 followed by 73, or 100 lot in a single transaction. This will result in:

Buy Qty   Buy       Sell    Sell Qty
   XXX     0.695     0.700   200 (or 100)

Then the 200 ( or 100 lots) of 0.700 will be eaten in a minute again. And then the same scenario repeat for 10 minutes at 0.700, to create volume. I do not know the intention of this, but clearly, the big fish holds most of the share. This phenomenon is observed at other prices as well, but not that obvious.



A very beautiful trade detail, showing a strong buy rate of 82%, this is extremely high! With today KLCI sentiment, this share is just too strong. The volume is beautiful, but is a little bit huge already?



1000 lots of buy volume - I have never seen this happened in this share, something must be coming very soon? All buy up transactions, showing how strong is this share although the market is going down today.

What I am worry is the huge volume today. But the candle is very good though. I still doesn't have any target price for this, kind of losing direction in selling.

If tomorrow is a big gap up, I would run.
If tomorrow continue rising, I would see until which point it will go. Perhaps sell half?
If tomorrow small volume, forget about it.

Hopefully my previous experience learned from stock market will help in making the decision this time.

Saturday, 18 January 2014

First dividend in 2014

Together with the interim dividend, INARI has announced a special dividend at the same time, a total of 1.5 cent of dividend for a quarter. I love the word "special dividend", although not much, it sounds like a bonus stuff to the shareholders. 




Yes, my first dividend in 2014 is brought by INARI. I love dividend. Looking forward for my second one next month, i.e. INSAS. Also, longing for a surprise dividend. if it were to come, it should come in two weeks time, hopefully.





Saturday, 11 January 2014

My share doubled its price, i.e. "kai fan"

Last month I just wrote something about a share that I've hold for the longest time.

Yesterday, I mentioned that I really look forward to my first "kai fan" share, i.e. 100% return, in 2013 review.

Note: "kai fan" = 开番 in mandarin
                = "open slip" by direct translation (meaningless)
                = doubled share price in English term

To my surprise, the share that I look forward to be the first share that doubled its price is not the first share that doubled its price in my portfolio. I am still very excited to see the first 100% in my portfolio, finally, after 3 years of stock investment.

pnepcb double share price


I've hold this for 13 months. Not too bad after seeing this return. But the process is not that easy, especially if you look at the market everyday. This stock can be completely deadly for weeks and months, with only small volume traded.

The weightage of this share was 25% of my total capital by the time I bought in. Although I would think of buying not enough (greed has no bounds), but even if I put in a large portion of my capital, say 50%, being half of my capital locked in there for so long, how could I go through the process and how much opportunity would I lost? After all, there is no regret in stock market. The fact is, nobody will know when would a share move, just like this one, near to 50% rise in 2 days, how could one speculate this? Even tough you really look at this share all the time, the energy and time that you spent on it would not worth it too. It is impossible to know when a share will move, so the only way we can do is buy and hold. Buy before it moves. As long as you are confident with your choice, just hold.

Ironically, my portfolio seems to hint me to reduce my frequent trade in stock market -- I would expect INARI to double its price first, but at last is this "black horse", of which I've hold for so long that jump the queue. Is like telling me that as long as you are confident with a share, just hold, time will bring you the return that you deserve. I will remember this lesson. 

Now, question comes: when to sell it? I don't really have a target price for this. If really have one, I would say at least RM 0.80. But now I still don't see any reason to sell it -- this new high was broken by a record high volume too, nice chart!

Also, today the stock closed at Buy 0.595 & Sell 0.600 with a sell of 13000+ lots, i.e. a lot as compared to usual queue of 200-500 lots. I would say that this is a "fake" resistance, as most of the shares are in the big fish hand. Today high of 0.600 has only traded for 2 lots, an obvious act by retail investors. I couldn't print screen of the queue tough, after Bursa has upgraded its trading system to BTS2. It wouldn't take immediate time to break 0.600, I hope so, as this share should rest for a while now before continue moving.


Finally, some Manglish, i.e. Malaysian English. Whenever I talked to someone that I have this share, people will look at it and say:

this kind of stock can buy meh?

no volume one, how to buy?

like that need to hold how long? 

like this can earn money meh? 

Friday, 10 January 2014

2013 review: part 5 (end)

In summary, 2013 breaks several personal investment records: (it's easy to break though, cause I am only 3 years in KLSE)

  1. record loss of a single share, in terms of amount -- not something worth bragging
  2. record earn of single share, in terms of amount -- something I am very thankful for
  3. record dividend income, a bonus for me, still wish to get more dividend this year
Several mistake that (hopefully) can never be repeated:

  1. There is nothing like what I should have earned from a bullish market. The stock market does not owe me anything. That kind of thinking and attitude will only make me lost even more.
  2. It turns out that holding 0% share in a bullish market can make me to lose control in stock market for months. I am very grateful for the time this lesson came, fortunately it did not plunge by the time I got in to "revenge". Hopefully I will remember this lesson for years. Never fight with the market.
  3. Before buy / sell a share, read the quotes and experience that I've gone through before.
  4. All in style works pretty well when the capital is small, however, the style will need to be adjusted ones the capital gets bigger. All in a share using large capital is too risky - you don't have any more cash to buy other share or average down when the opportunity comes.
This year, I enthusiastically wait for my 100% single share return, I am pretty sure it will come very soon, and then only see if I want to continue holding or sell. Just like what typical Malaysians would say "later only see how lah". 

Dividend "sneak-peak": one to come next week (INARI), one to come next month if I hold the share (INSAS), which I probably will. "money, nobody will think it is too much one mah"

One more expectation: surprise dividend



After 13 years, this company paid out a dividend last year, announced on 29 Jan 2013. I was very happy to receive the dividend last year, and expect something this year too, hopefully not too long. Based on last month and today's performance (+17%), I guess something is coming very soon (less a question than a statement).


Wednesday, 1 January 2014

2013 review: part 1

Thankfully, my target is achieved by the end of the year, thanks to the share that I bought last quarter, that brings me a record paper gain, or my investment return will be in red.

For 2013, I still use the same technique as in 2012 - observe, buy in, wait and sell. This is in total contrast of what I planned at the end of 2012.What is planned is not delivered, especially the 30% cash part, I did not keep a 30% cash all the time. In fact, I all in all the time. How come like that one? Greed.

At 1H of the year, my return was negative. The bullish market after election reflects my weakness in stock market, I went in emotionally, without any rationale.  It costs me a big loss. Then, knowing that my target is even further away, I kept on doing the wrong thing - all in a call warrant. This is just too scary for me. Fortunately I admitted my mistake,cut lost within 1 month, still incurring a lost of 2k.

The turning point is in August, where I all in a share that I traded previously, that brings me the return I have today.


Dividend is a total bonus for me when I focus on capital gain- RM 998.30, touching 4 figures, that is surreal. And one more dividend to come in January, already ex in Dec 2013, I love dividend. 



Thursday, 12 December 2013

KLSE: A share that I've held for the longest time

Today marks the 1st anniversary of the share that I've hold for the longest time, i.e. 1 full year. For 3 years of involvement in KLSE, I have never hold a stock for that long, due to the short to middle term of trading style.

This stock, due to whatever reason, I do not have the intention to sell. Regardless of how bad the market is, it doesn't move. In the bullish market, it doesn't move as well. Super low volume stock, super "cold" stock, yet I can hold for 1 year without any trading done.

From the chart above, what has come down in this year:
(I do not intend to disclose the stock name here, but it is not hard to figure it out)


pnepcb


i) Extremely low volume stock. People has said that it is not worthwhile to hold this, but I just didn't sell. Volume comes and goes a few times, yet I can hold until now.

ii) Dividend of 1 cent announced (totally a surprise). This dividend is equivalently to 3.4% of dividend yield, i.e. even without capital gain, I still earn 3.4% of interest in this stock.(still comparable to FD I guess)

iii) Recently this stock did move,not by a small margin. The price increase in recent month has gain me capital that outperformed all investment return that I've made this year, including the call warrant trade AIRASIA-CY

iv) Financially, not beautiful in terms of net profit. But I believe in the stock for several reasons: cash/share price =~ stock price, ZERO long term liability, small number of shares, is just a matter of time to explode.

v) Final and most important thing, I believe in my vision! 

Let's see how it plays out.

Monday, 15 April 2013

今年的第二次股息

好高兴。又有股息收了。数目不多,都不够去 TAMBUN 吃一顿海鲜pun。自己爽而已。






今年第二次收股息。这个是属于 tax exempt 了的股息。4月30号,INARI的股息又会进户口。开始享受到拿股息的感觉,只有爽可以形容。


开始想今年还会不会有股息拿呢?收了股息就一直想继续收了。PHARMA?上个月才发过而已,怎么可能?除非来个Special Dividend?可是上个月发的是 interim dividend,是第4次了。那么final dividend呢?希望来个惊喜。