Showing posts with label PHARMA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PHARMA. Show all posts

Saturday, 11 April 2015

About long term investment

This is my 5th year of involvement in KLSE. While surviving KLSE in this period is nothing more than ordinary, I am still glad that I have made it, with a capital growing at a satisfactory rate.

In retrospect, the way I "handle" KLSE is by intraday, short term (<6 months) and medium term (<3 years) tradings.

Intraday tradings were extremely rare, simply because the energy and time spent is too much to bear. Some examples, MAS and CYBERT(don't learn this). All have gone to holland by now.

Short term (<6 months) trading is something that I prefer more. INGRESS, SBCCORP and PRLEXUS are typical examples. Mostly use chart to look for entry price, seeking a return of 10-30% in less than 3 months. Sporadically, there will be chances to earn "fast money" in a few days, i.e. playing rebound, e.g.  PHARMA and TAKAFUL. When this occurs, if you are bold enough, ALL IN.

Medium term (>6 months <3 years) can be torturous at times. But good things come to those who wait. INARI, PNEPCB and SHH are my old buddy now. Return has been very satisfactory. 6 months - 2 years is a period that I am more comfortably to hold a share, because they always end up good return.

Where is my long term investment?

I understand that my current investment style will not last long. When the capital becomes large, so does the stake. At some point, I will like to invest long term -- in the sense to hold a share for at least 3 years.  This is where your "skill" is tested, to see how well you can spot a good counter, as if PBBANK and GENTING in the 1980s, DIGI in the 2000s and DLADY in the 2010s. What type of companies should I look for long term investment?

Are they companies that I really like? For this, I look no further from AirAsia and AAX. It is the airline that enables me to fly between PEN-KUL and KUL-SYD. But sentiment cannot help making decision in the stock market. AirAsia has been dropping for a while, since it hit a top of RM 4.00 in 2012. If you buy AAX since IPO and hold until now then you would have lost a lot. Perhaps there are just too many uncertainties in the airline industry.

Are they companies that I don't like to involve as an individual? This means health care and pharmaceutical industry. Nobody likes to go to hospital, yet everybody needs to go there at some point. Examples include KPJ, PHARMA and IHH.

How about companies that are needed in daily lives? Consumer products. NESTLE, DLADY and others.

At this stage I wouldn't buy any of these securities. I don't look for long term investment now. Long term investment does not make sense to me if the capital is not big enough, e.g. RM 500k. Until then, I can use a portion of this capital to invest "long-term". For now, the first task is still to grow my capital, which is what I have been doing for 5 years.

Tuesday, 21 May 2013

大选前操作分析3 -- 旧爱PHARMA

跟风的。Investalks高手买进。基本面肯定没有问题的。只是hold多久而已。





4尾,还是怕。结果直接套利。5月4马股呈献跌势,暗自庆幸自己卖掉了。结果回去原来自己那么天真。回去放走一只金蛋母鸡了。

只是一个月而已,原来自己走错很多步。

也罢,就当一个经验。这种经验不到。日子久了,以后自然更加懂得怎么处理。

Monday, 1 April 2013

2013 Q1 季度检讨

时光飞走了,3个月就不知道怎么的,一眨眼就过去了。大选还是没来。这个季度想的不是该买什么股,而是该不该买股。大选的消息引发散户 panic selling。今年1月21-22日,指数在2天最大跌幅达70点。没有想到,现在就爬回来了,而且好像还有意思创新高。股市就是这样。

这个季度回酬不错。+7.5% 对比 KLCI的 -1.03。 我很满意。当然,这总存在着进步空间。说实在,什么功课都不做,单单靠着了解股性,图表和去论坛吹水偷师来交易,也可以骗到几口饭真的偷笑了。

回看过去,3个月以来犯了不少错误,以下一一列出,希望以后要交易的时候看回去,可以制止自己重犯。


PRLEXUS卖得太迟!不是目标价没有达到,就只因为太过贪心!见《贪心的后果》。
以后就算没有设定目标价,看到高点也得选择部分套利!

有钱就一直买一直买。钱在户口完全没有放超过1个星期的。实在可恶!PRLEXUS上个星期0.8X 看到我口水一直流,做梦一直流(那么夸张吹水罢了),可是就是没有现金去买!
现金一部分。


INARI资金一个月是多余的。我的买价肯定可以更低一点。这种错误是我投资第一年时才会犯的,怎么到现在还在犯这种错误?


我最爱的红酒,难得给我买在这几个月的最低点(这股的股性我摸透了),结果却因为大选恐慌心态,竟然早早把盈利砍掉。对自己一点信心都没有,怎么行?
好好分析趋势决定去留。最重要的事,别让情绪主宰理智!一旦情绪布满脑袋,判断力肯定大挫,结果就会造成大错!


SBCCORP。给我抓到时机,确实赚了一个很不错的纸上盈利。结果心太贪,不肯套利。KLCI回调一下,盈利瞬间蒸发。实在懊悔不已!
同上,高位总得选择套利!别一直担心卖了会继续升的,越担心情况将会越糟糕!


现在来马后炮也没有用。以后别重犯错误,自然可以让赚钱成为一种习惯。

By CK Tan

Thursday, 28 March 2013

谈谈近期的 KLCI

综合指数名字好听,但是不好玩。近期大选消息传,看到麻木了。一点感觉没有了。


这2星期KLCI直接从161X到1674闭市。了。首要工程就是银行通讯了,不了那个每个人亚航。


想不到几个月前曾经数度跌破1600点的心理关卡的综指就这样爬山来了。这种非常时刻很多人都想收cash,我也想。可是这样一收就错过了一轮涨潮了。再说,大选消息传了那么多遍,早就听厌了。这种情况,应对方法就是见步走步了。

题外话:PHARMA今天的回调健康。成交量合理。昨天我有想过脱手。不过想想还是算了。脱了手要买回就没有冲劲了。再说,时常进出的话也不好,抓错时机,只会害了自己。

Tuesday, 12 March 2013

再吃回头草 -- PHARMA

一段时间没有公开自己的交易了。今天吃了回头草,就放上来。


PHARMA 是我的旧爱,就算不是因为他曾经为我带来不错的回报,他的生意也是我很喜欢的 - 做药。我相信这是高成长的公司,股息不错,大股东有多数票。这是我长期投资的目标之一。

 
 
 
我不想因为3 cent的价差,而失去这个机会。所以最后还是把价钱出高一点算了。
 
 
值得注意的是。最后一分钟,全部seller的价钱怎么不见了?4点出的时候还可以看到 7.94 7.95 7.96 7.98 7.99的,竟然全部不见,变成 5th best sell price 8.39?? 这意味着什么?以过往的经验,这种加码离开很大的seller,要发作之时时间问题而已!