Showing posts with label MAS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MAS. Show all posts

Saturday, 11 April 2015

About long term investment

This is my 5th year of involvement in KLSE. While surviving KLSE in this period is nothing more than ordinary, I am still glad that I have made it, with a capital growing at a satisfactory rate.

In retrospect, the way I "handle" KLSE is by intraday, short term (<6 months) and medium term (<3 years) tradings.

Intraday tradings were extremely rare, simply because the energy and time spent is too much to bear. Some examples, MAS and CYBERT(don't learn this). All have gone to holland by now.

Short term (<6 months) trading is something that I prefer more. INGRESS, SBCCORP and PRLEXUS are typical examples. Mostly use chart to look for entry price, seeking a return of 10-30% in less than 3 months. Sporadically, there will be chances to earn "fast money" in a few days, i.e. playing rebound, e.g.  PHARMA and TAKAFUL. When this occurs, if you are bold enough, ALL IN.

Medium term (>6 months <3 years) can be torturous at times. But good things come to those who wait. INARI, PNEPCB and SHH are my old buddy now. Return has been very satisfactory. 6 months - 2 years is a period that I am more comfortably to hold a share, because they always end up good return.

Where is my long term investment?

I understand that my current investment style will not last long. When the capital becomes large, so does the stake. At some point, I will like to invest long term -- in the sense to hold a share for at least 3 years.  This is where your "skill" is tested, to see how well you can spot a good counter, as if PBBANK and GENTING in the 1980s, DIGI in the 2000s and DLADY in the 2010s. What type of companies should I look for long term investment?

Are they companies that I really like? For this, I look no further from AirAsia and AAX. It is the airline that enables me to fly between PEN-KUL and KUL-SYD. But sentiment cannot help making decision in the stock market. AirAsia has been dropping for a while, since it hit a top of RM 4.00 in 2012. If you buy AAX since IPO and hold until now then you would have lost a lot. Perhaps there are just too many uncertainties in the airline industry.

Are they companies that I don't like to involve as an individual? This means health care and pharmaceutical industry. Nobody likes to go to hospital, yet everybody needs to go there at some point. Examples include KPJ, PHARMA and IHH.

How about companies that are needed in daily lives? Consumer products. NESTLE, DLADY and others.

At this stage I wouldn't buy any of these securities. I don't look for long term investment now. Long term investment does not make sense to me if the capital is not big enough, e.g. RM 500k. Until then, I can use a portion of this capital to invest "long-term". For now, the first task is still to grow my capital, which is what I have been doing for 5 years.

Friday, 15 February 2013

如何避免被套?

注:内容取自《股市倍增术》

被套这种经验实在不好受。被套了,要坎又不舍得。不看资金又被绑死。要如何脱离那种感觉?这里有讲几招。纯粹示范,没有任何交易建议。

避免:
  • 已经股价跌破年线的股。跌破年线代表长期下跌趋势已经形成。回调的时间很难预测。此时买入很容易被套。例子:马航。这股在近期带量下跌。很多人都想捉反弹,包括我。知道现在我都没有动。看回去,才看到原来它已经连跌了5年了!2009-2011的牛市对它来说好像不曾发生过这样。太恐怖了。


  • 避免股价已向上突破年线,但年线呈献下滑趋势的个股。基本上跟上个道理差不多。总之年线是很好的支撑。跌破了,就是短期趋势完蛋。下图是CCM的。减重几次从上年线,没有多久又回头了。要捉这种东西的反弹,必须要观察一个不短的时间,再加上技巧,才能获利。要不然,就是被套。
  • 避免年度内已经开番的股项。基本原则是1年内番了1番,就1年不碰。1年内番了2番,就2年不碰,以此类推。看看去年的TAKAFUL,就番了3番,那么是不是说3年内不动了?意思就是3年内股价多数都不会动了。例子:红飞机。没有了他,有多少人不曾坐过飞机?


红飞机2010-2011年开了2番。过后就沉静到现在了。2年还没有到。是不是过后就可以买进了?拭目以待!

买股的优先:
长期熊股优先
上市后第一次出现买入讯号
小型股
低价股

Thursday, 13 December 2012

马航可以捉反弹吗?

自从宣布削资以来马航就跌到现在。之前RM1.00的支撑早就跌破了。今天再次爆量大跌,已经来到0.745的价钱!之前还可以顶住0.800,今天再次放量大跌。

 
 
跌了整2个星期,可不可以玩反弹?没有基本面的股我是不会玩反弹的。首先马航连年亏损已经是众所周知。在最新一季财报难得看到一点点盈利。然后马航来个削资+附加股。很明显市场对这个建议不看好,所以才会有这现象。可是,马航怎么会倒?这不会发生。
 
马航问题出现在管理层。整个航空是没问题的。服务很好,价钱也不会说特别贵,因为他不是跑廉价路线的。那么基本面不是很好,不过总不会倒。
 
技术来看虽然说爆量大跌肯定不是好事,可是Stochastic和MACD已经符合反弹的标准。RSI还在20以上,如果可以跌破20更有把握。再看看接下来的几天吧。
 
注:吹吹水,买卖自负。
 


Tuesday, 9 October 2012

今天坐上马航

今天回到家520. 可是!马股还没有闭市!自从夏令时开始,这里的时间将会快3个小时。我下班后还可以看股市,真不错!这时马股午盘都还没有开市呢!

我就看看股市。MAS午盘开始1.00. 过后做了一点东西。习惯上看回去股市。咦?MAS怎么可以在意分钟里面来到1.03呢?看了交易记录,不得了了!量来了!我立刻跳进去!!

过后冲到最高1.09就退下来了。我决定套利了。今天偷了一点鸡。感觉不错。小玩一点。



看回去之前的图,今天的爆量有点爆过头了。之前都没有出现10M的量很多了。突然来的量,又没有暴升10%++的,相信接下来会回调几天了。