Showing posts with label KLCI. Show all posts
Showing posts with label KLCI. Show all posts

Saturday, 10 October 2015

2015 Q3 Review

KLCI has not been performing well for this quarter. It took a roller-coaster ride to drop continuously in August before it finally rebounded in September. This round of adjustment is worse than Oct and Dec 2014, probably similar to Aug 2011 in terms of magnitude and pattern.

The Oct 2014 experience which cost me to vomit out everything is still lingering. Perhaps because of this, I have learnt from the past and "escaped" relatively unscathed in this adjustment.

On the bad side, I bought back SIGN not long after selling it.

On the good side, I bought MYEG-CK @ RM 0.055 in the morning of 25 Aug -- the lowest point of adjustment when KLCI was touching 1503. It wasn't an easy decision. The famous market quote of "buying fear, selling greed" is easier said than done. Seeing KLCI dropping everyday, it is tough to do the opposite. But if you have the confidence to do the opposite, the return can be very rewarding in a very short time.

The biggest lesson to learn from this big drop is to walk off after selling. My emotion remains wavering after selling. Making decision under this condition does not do me any good. If I could just walk off for 1-2 weeks after selling, things would have been much better now.

Past experience offers a chance to improve in the future. And this is a very good experience for me but to learn to walk off next time or history is destined to repeat itself.

Thursday, 24 September 2015

KL: A mistake on SIGN

I bought in SIGN in early July based on a friend's recommendation. During August (when KLCI was dropping everyday, literally), I did learn from the past to take profit on 7 Aug @ RM3.00 -- the second day of big drop. This is an exceptional decision -- the selling price is within 10% from the high of RM 3.27.

I was very happy at first. But then seeing the stock continue to go down, I tried to "catch low", hoping that the stock would rebound soon. This is a common error people make: catching low. Another reason is the thought of betting on the August financial report. I was thinking that by benefiting from the depreciation of MYR, export counters should be doing well.

I bought back on 12 Aug (it was just 3 trading days after I sold!), wishing to earn for a second round. Although suffering from unrealized losses straight after buying, I hold on to the optimistic side of a beautiful fiscal report -- another common error people make: take chances. The financial report was released on 27 Aug and it was bad. SIGN dropped 15% on the next trading day. Not only I "vomit out" all profit in the first round of trading, I incurred a further loss.


SIGNATURE INTERNATIONAL BHD


Buying back just after 3 days of selling is really unnecessary.  This decision has cost me an arm and a leg this time. I took one step forward (took profit), but then I took another step backward (bought back) to the origin. Perhaps  I should never look back to stock after selling.

Sunday, 13 September 2015

KL: the rise of put warrants in KLSE

Index call and put warrants (FBMKLCI-CX and FBMKLCI-HX) have been a hot topic for discussion lately. Opening the trading platform, you see that FBMKLCI-H and FBMKLCI-C warrants are trading in the top volume, literally everyday.

This is something that has never happened before in KLSE. Usually you only see penny stocks appearing in the top volume section. Now the game has clearly changed. It has already gone insane until the stage that when KLCI rises, you will even see put warrant to go up and call warrant to go down; and vice versa.

As far as I could remember, call warrants started to gain public acceptance around 2006. Back then, put warrant does not exist in KLSE. According to this website, it wasn't until 2010-2011 that the first index put warrant FBMKLCI-HA was issued (apparently by OSK?). But this put warrant was born in unlucky time of bull period and ended up worthless.

Then, FBMKLCI-HB was issued by CIMB in July 2014. It became the spotlight in KLSE during the big drop in Oct 2014. And because of that, put warrants are mushroomed by investment banks. To date, the latest put warrant is FBMKLCI-H9: more than 30 index put warrants were issued in less than 1 year. This is unprecedented and extraordinary

After all this time, I would say that the late 2014 to 2015 is where put warrants have gained the public awareness.  This is good, investors know that now they can trade the index or stocks in both ways. However, I do doubt if now is a good time to trade put warrants: everyday in the top volume has already made me lost interest, what more to say when these warrants are extremely overvalued now?

Wednesday, 19 August 2015

KL: PRIVA rebound catching

Catching a rebound requires more than bravery. It requires the correct timing, the confidence to buy, the calmness to hold and the resolution to cut loss should the stock keep falling down.

I queued PRIVA @ 0.195 early in the morning, when the queue was 0.200 best buy and 0.205 best sell. Soon after the market opened, I saw KLCI "waterfall-ed" again and immediately wanted to cancel my order. But before I clicked on the "cancel order" button, the transaction was matched.


PRIVA rebound

Soon after that, the best sell became 0.195 in no time.

Soon after that, the last done price was 0.190.

Soon after that, the best sell become 0.190 and the best buy was 0.185.

This implies an immediately loss and is not a good feeling at all. It was tough to hold the counter in that situation, especially when KLCI has been plunging continuously. My confidence is certainly shaken right after buying. I decided to observe first and closed my trading platform. Until now, so far so good.

While PRIVA is not a 5-star stock (my basic requirement to catch a rebound), being a technology stock and a price of < 0.200 makes me irresistible. I target a return of at least 50% in short time.

Sunday, 2 August 2015

KL: KLCI technical analysis

KLCI is really weak recently. Trying to earn money from KLCI lately has been challenging. Regardless of what shares you are trading, the index is still the most important benchmark in KLSE as it determines the general trend of the market. How is it doing? Let's examine this from the monthly, weekly and daily charts.

1. Monthly chart:

KLCI monthly chart

Monthly chart does not look good. MACD and stochastic are heading negative. The last candle, July 2015, was primarily due to the last trading day where KLCI was pulled up by 23 points. Was this a sign just to draw a "nice" chart or is it that KLCI is ready to go? It has 3 black candles followed by one white candle where similar trends have been observed in 2008 and 2011. While 2008 was a real bear, 2011 was an adjustment. Which way will it go this time?  Only time can tell. 

2. Weekly chart:

KLCI weekly chart

Weekly chart looks a bit nicer. The chart looks like forming a double bottom. All MACD, RSI and stochastic seems to recover from the bottom. However, no sign of strength was observed.

3. Daily chart:


Daily chart cannot tell much. Chart shows KLCI seems to have "triple bottom" recently. MACD, RSI and stochastic are heading positive, but the trend in daily chart can change very abruptly.

A lot of rumours say that if the PM were to step down, it will lead to political instability and chaos (as in the stock market) would ensue. I couldn't be bother about this factor. Partly because I don't think he will step down; and partly also because who knows which way will the stock market go if he really steps down?

While a number of investors do not look good on the current market, I still yet to spot a "madness" in the stock market. After all, standing at 1723 is less than a 10% drop from the peak of 1890+. Is that really bad? But perhaps the drop occurs successively due to the involatility of the KLCI, it felt as if the drop has been long and significant. My view is that while bear has not yet formed, the chance of "final bull" remains unclear. The way to deal with this is as always: prudent investment involving good fundamental stock.

Saturday, 11 July 2015

2015 Q2 Review

The total transaction in this quarter was very high, probably the highest in my history.

My portfolio reached a pinnacle on 23rd Apr, which have declined since then as KLCI has been dropping continuously. Indulging myself in insatiable greed, I saw many counters that I hold turned from green to red, from earning to losing. AWC and PRIVA are only a fraction of examples. I experience the highs and lows of the rise and fall in my portfolio, feeling completely numb about the change in numbers.

The transaction involving call warrant in this quarter has far exceeded the total call warrant transaction for the past 4.5 years. After all these years, I have finally felt comfortable to trade call warrant. The experience is: taking profit on call warrant is way too important. You can't hang on to call warrant like the way I used to do with a mother share. When you see a reverse trend, it is time to sell regardless of the return.

Going to the end of June, the Greece drama and the possibility of a downgrade in Malaysia credit rating have proven that my own insight into the market was right. This marks a great advance in my investment life: to be able to insist on my own view and not being swayed by the others. Yet I know that I still have a long way to go, for having zero experience in a real bearish market.

The investment return will remain undisclosed since now.

Saturday, 4 July 2015

News by media, view by myself (part 3)

Example 3: Index -- KLCI

This example is interesting.

Prior to 30th Jun 2015, there were rumours about a possibility of downgrade in Malaysia credit rating by Fitch. First the earliest rumour was during March published in Bloomborg: Fitch Sees More Than 50% Odds of Malaysia Downgrade on 1MDB. Since then, KLCI has been declining continuously.

Next, the "drama" has come to the point where a review will be completed by the end of June. When the due date is approaching, more negatives news about a possible downgrade since 1998 were released, causing fears in the market sentiment.

Now the review outcome was announced. As reported in The Edge, Fitch has maintained Malaysia rating at A- and upgraded the outlook from "negative" to "stable". This is in sharp contrast to the market's expectation.

What now? What did the news tell you prior to the outcome? The coverage was all about a high possibility of downgrade. What will you do if you trust the media? Knowing that the stock market would plummet, you would sell all, hold cash or buy put warrant. However what actually happened was on 1st July 2015, KLCI gained more than 20 points, something that you don't see for at least 6 months. 

What about myself? I don't buy any of this news. Think about this:

1. If they really want to downgrade, will they let you know in advance so that you have time to sell? Frankly, although Malaysia is a "commonwealth" country, but "wealth" is not meant to be "common" in reality.

2. Even if there will be a downgrade, provided that the media were covering this, the effect would have been "adsorbed" by the market since then, and the opposite trend may happen just like the case of AUD:USD.

3. Seriously, who cares about Malaysia rating? Perhaps they couldn't care less about this.

This comes from experience though. After reading all rumours, I recalled what happened in August 2011 where US was downgraded without any preceding news. That did cause a small bear in the global market. You will have no time to sell should there be a “real downgrade". This is why I know there would be no downgrade. However I did not dare to all in when the market dropped, but this is still better than previously where I just followed other people to panic sell.

[to be continued]

Saturday, 11 April 2015

About long term investment

This is my 5th year of involvement in KLSE. While surviving KLSE in this period is nothing more than ordinary, I am still glad that I have made it, with a capital growing at a satisfactory rate.

In retrospect, the way I "handle" KLSE is by intraday, short term (<6 months) and medium term (<3 years) tradings.

Intraday tradings were extremely rare, simply because the energy and time spent is too much to bear. Some examples, MAS and CYBERT(don't learn this). All have gone to holland by now.

Short term (<6 months) trading is something that I prefer more. INGRESS, SBCCORP and PRLEXUS are typical examples. Mostly use chart to look for entry price, seeking a return of 10-30% in less than 3 months. Sporadically, there will be chances to earn "fast money" in a few days, i.e. playing rebound, e.g.  PHARMA and TAKAFUL. When this occurs, if you are bold enough, ALL IN.

Medium term (>6 months <3 years) can be torturous at times. But good things come to those who wait. INARI, PNEPCB and SHH are my old buddy now. Return has been very satisfactory. 6 months - 2 years is a period that I am more comfortably to hold a share, because they always end up good return.

Where is my long term investment?

I understand that my current investment style will not last long. When the capital becomes large, so does the stake. At some point, I will like to invest long term -- in the sense to hold a share for at least 3 years.  This is where your "skill" is tested, to see how well you can spot a good counter, as if PBBANK and GENTING in the 1980s, DIGI in the 2000s and DLADY in the 2010s. What type of companies should I look for long term investment?

Are they companies that I really like? For this, I look no further from AirAsia and AAX. It is the airline that enables me to fly between PEN-KUL and KUL-SYD. But sentiment cannot help making decision in the stock market. AirAsia has been dropping for a while, since it hit a top of RM 4.00 in 2012. If you buy AAX since IPO and hold until now then you would have lost a lot. Perhaps there are just too many uncertainties in the airline industry.

Are they companies that I don't like to involve as an individual? This means health care and pharmaceutical industry. Nobody likes to go to hospital, yet everybody needs to go there at some point. Examples include KPJ, PHARMA and IHH.

How about companies that are needed in daily lives? Consumer products. NESTLE, DLADY and others.

At this stage I wouldn't buy any of these securities. I don't look for long term investment now. Long term investment does not make sense to me if the capital is not big enough, e.g. RM 500k. Until then, I can use a portion of this capital to invest "long-term". For now, the first task is still to grow my capital, which is what I have been doing for 5 years.

Friday, 3 April 2015

2015 Q1 Review

The total transaction for this quarter is very low, which is a good thing. I just hold on to whatever in my portfolio. My capital has started to "recover" to the level of Oct 2014, which I couldn't be more grateful for.

Sometimes I would think that if I hold on to my FBMKLCI-HB that I bought in Oct 2014 until Dec 2014, I would have earned a lot. I sold at a loss after 1 week. Inexplicably, in that period of time, even one day seems to be forever, for which I long for my return to "come back" instantly.

Anyway, I thought that SHH may have second round, but then I read a news about HEVEA eyeing SHH resources published on 30 Mar 2015 in the morning. "Coincidently", this is the day where SHH gap up to open high at RM 1.56. Even more "coincident" is that the share started to move one week prior to the news. The old market adage has it that "Buy on rumours Sell on news". While I certainly don't have any rumours beforehand, it now seems that my selling time is just right for "sell on news". And because this round of shoot up is "obviously" due to the news, I wouldn't hope for a second wave. So no more SHH for me. What a pity, I still plan to earn for one more round.

The investment return will remain undisclosed.

Saturday, 25 October 2014

Global market adjustment, what am I doing? (2)

In one week time, things can change dramatically. The things that I hold so tight to previously, all gone in a few days. It was so near to me, yet it is now far away from me.

Ironically, I told myself that my target price is RM 2.70 for INARI before. When it reached that price, I didn't sell.

Ironically, I sold some shares at RM 3.18 before, which at that time it went to a high of ~RM 3.30+, which I thought that I've sold it at a low price. Seriously? What happen to me, that I still crave to sell at the highest point? The tighter you cling to something, the faster it is going away from you.

It has been so ironic to me, that my final selling price is not even my target price previously. Even worse, this is not the first time I experience this (see here).

I also panic sell GHLSYS at the same day. It now seems so stupid of me, that I could have had a return of 30% a few days ago before I sold, and now it became 3%.

What am I doing? The market has not adjusted for sometime, and I indulge myself to this kind of situation, to have 100% shares at ALL TIME, thinking to grab every single cent from the market.

What am I doing? I take things for granted, as if I should always be making profit, although past experiences have taught me not to (never) take things for granted.

What am I doing? I did not let my capital to rest for even a single day. I let them to subject to the daily market fluctuation, watching the portfolio rise and down, until I lost myself.

What am I doing? This experience is similar to May-Aug 2013, of which I've written some reviews in Jan 2014. I was vindictive last year, which has cost me even more, so now I decided to rest for sometime. 

[to be continued]



Monday, 20 October 2014

Global market adjustment, what am I doing? (1)

Global markets drops consecutively in two weeks ago. As usual, Asian markets will follow the trend of western markets.  I believe these two weeks has been a turmoil for a number of investors. Unfortunately, I have to admit that I am one of them.

The first day was 7 Oct 2014.


I use the term adjustment, because at this point it is sure that this is an adjustment since KLCI index drop far below its 200MA, i.e. year line. I don't know if it is a bear or not at this point.


Small and medium capital shares adjust really a lot. In just a few days time, my buddy INARI has drop more than 30%. 



My profit has evaporated significantly. This is what happen to INARI price, and how my feeling is manipulated by the market all these days.







7-10-2014: First day drop, no feeling at all. Not even thought of selling.



8-10-2014: First day GAP DOWN, continue holding, hoping it to get back. I told myself
that if the coming rebound has no volume, I will sell it.


9-10-2014: Small rebound. It happened that this rebound did not have the volume I expected. 
Yet I convinced myself to hold. Why? I am longing it to get back to its 
"normal" position that it used to be, i.e. above RM 3.20. (mistake 1)

10-10-2014:  Second day GAP DOWN. It is painful, terribly painful. One day of plunge
can get back to the price which is 4 months ago, i.e. if I sell now, I lost 4 months of

opportunity cost. I am still too proud to lose at this point.

13-10-2014: Third day GAP DOWN. Horrible sell off. Price went back to 7 months ago.
I can assure you that seeing your profit evaporate day by day is an extreme 
agony. 



14-10-2014: Fourth day GAP DOWN, cannot tahan (stand) anymore, SELL ALL. (mistake 2)


15-10-2014: Continue going down, totally out of my expectation. Of course I felt
fortunate that I've sold it yesterday.


16-10-2014: Fifth day GAP DOWN. A total drop of 35%+ from 3.18 to today's low.
All happen in 1 week time. The opening price is RM 2.04.

Even though I know that this is a bargain price;
Even though I know that technically, the price is completely out of BB lower band 
(i.e. a rebound is very soon);
Even though I know that it will not continue to gap down everyday; 
Yet the emotional fear has stopped me from buying. I am too scared to buy in.

I guess this gives me a taste of bearish market,
that no matter how low the price is;
that previously you've thought that you would have bought in (probably all in?) at this bargain price, 
that who is so stupid to sell INARI at RM 2.04;
But the market will scare you from doing so. I admit that I am completely scared by the market at that time.
After all, seeing what happened on 15-10-2014 is that it open greenly in the morning, 
and at the end of the market it went down from RM 2.50 to RM 2.22 to close at the lowest
price. How dare for me to buy in if I see this kind of transaction?

Logic says: hey, INARI 35% discount price, when will you see this bargain again? 
Emotion argues: OMG, it has been free fall for so many days, how dare you 
catch the falling knife? never die before? 

At the decision moment, this time, my emotion won. I lost my logical
thinking seeing the market can be red like that.


17-10-2014: Strong rebound, I couldn't believe what has happened. A big slap to 

people that have sold it in the past few days.



After selling, I felt fortunate that the price continue going down.
After the rebound on 17-10-2014, what is my feeling then?

The market is controlled by big fish;
My emotion is manipulated by the market;
My decision is controlled by my emotion;

So my decision is controlled by the market, which should not be the case.


[to be continued]

Wednesday, 19 February 2014

A past experience, a reminder to myself

There are several types of stock account. One of the most common is a cash upfront account, in which you are only able to buy shares with the money in your trust account, i.e. trading limit = cash available. Another common one being the margin account, which allows you to trade, e.g., 2X based on your cash available.

Having mentioned margin account, once I saw a "joke" in Investalks, saying that for those working in Singapore, they don't even need to have a margin account to trade 2X of the cash available, because what they are earning already has the marginal trading effect in Bursa Malaysia. Kind of cold jokes, but it reflects how the continuous depreciation of MYR erodes its value against other currencies.

Back to story. When I opened my account, I opted for cash upfront account. I know that, deep in my mind, this will prevent me from "gambling", as my weaknesses will be completely reflected in stock market, of how greedy I am, of how uncontrollable I am, of how unsatisfied I am, when the crucial moments come. By only forcing myself to use cash upfront account, I can avoid gambling on trading limit which may be over my financial affordability.

This decision DID save me from some losses. Back in 2011, I have a cash value of about 10k in my account. It happened at that time that PROTON (now delisted, took over by DRBHCOM), came the news about take over by DRBHICOM. Read a related news here.

Due to the news, PROTON gap-up open on 6 Dec 2011, from RM 4.50 previous close to open at RM 4.75. Its call warrant, that I was aiming at, PROTON-CG, open at RM 0.430 from a previous close of RM 0.370. Seeing such a strong positive sentiment, I plan to hantam (ALL-IN) all my cash to buy this call warrant.

PROTON-CG


I remember vividly that, I key in BUY RM 0.435 for 250 lots. ORDER DECLINED. I don't know why the order was declined. I tried a second time IMMEDIATELY (such a rash decision), same amount same price. ORDER DECLINED. Only then I calculated the total amount I wished to trade = RM 0.435* 25000 = RM 10875, which is over my trading limit for about RM 1k. I gave up buying.

Soon after that, PROTON turned from green to red, and PROTON-CG closed at RM 0.315 on that day. Had the transaction been successful, I would have suffered a loss of 3k in a day. Although it has gone up finally - 1 month later, I wouldn't have waited until that should I have the call warrant, I would have cut lost on the first day of my purchase.

My cash upfront account SAVE me from the loss. Of course, it did "prevent" me from some earning, but using margin trading limit for me is risky currently, as I am still learning how to control myself. In addition, past experience has shown that even though I may win some money at first, I might have lost even more at a later stage due to uncontrolled trading. I still feel comfortable using this cash upfront account. The feeling of "not earning enough" abates as my experience accumulates.

This experience also proves the well-known quote "buy on rumours and sell on facts". When news have already been announced, don't chase, is time to sell if you hold the shares. Anyway, this is an experience for me to remember, which will hopefully remind me to avoid the similar mistakes in the future.

Saturday, 4 January 2014

2013 review: part 3

I bought and wait, repeating this for several shares, until I realized that I have lost enough -- lost all earning from the beginning of this year. The last mistake I made was MAYBULK-CI -- ALL IN. When would I think of all in a call warrant in a normal situation? I do know how risky it is to all in call warrant, but I just wanted something back at that time. Kind of revenge, wasn't it?

I started collecting the CW in July, and finished all my cash in August - hoping that I can turn the table in one hit - too naive! Not long after that, world stock market "crashed", or more correctly if looking back now, adjusted. So did KLCI, it has no privilege against the world stock market.

KLCI august chart


MAYBULK is not like NESTLE or BAT, is not a defensive stock. So it followed KLCI pattern. 

Maybulk-CI


On 22 Aug 2013, KLCI opened with a gap, downwards. I decided to cut loss early in the morning - a right decision finally. For several consecutive days, Maybulk-CI went down to as low as 0.135, which I was fortunate. But not long after that, it climbed back to the price I sold, even went to as high as 0.325. While it may seem that if I hold until then, I could have earned some money, but I wouldn't sell even it is 0.325 though - my greed has no bounds. This is something I need to improve.

Maybulk-CI expired on 6 Dec 2013, at the same price that I have sold. Even if I hold until the end, it doesn't cost me to lose more in terms of capital, but it does cost me to lose time opportunity, a very important cost in the stock market - I could have switched share and manage to secure some earning, which I did.


[to be continued]

Tuesday, 31 December 2013

Last day of 2013: free movie ticket?

Experienced investors in KLSE will know that each year, towards the end of the last trading day, something interesting always happen in KLSE -- only in Malaysia.

Last year, the last trading day, I recorded the trading details here.
In the last 15 minutes, KLCI was pulled to new high, a miracle that is not miracle in Malaysia.


What is going to happen today? Yesterday the last 15 minutes KLCI has already been manipulated to new high. So, I think today a pretty high chance that the same thing will happen. Don't forget, KLCI is 1872 now - historical high. Let's enjoy movie this afternoon.

Movie time: 4:45 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. GMT +8
Venue: Up to you, can be in a broker branch, can be your home
Movie ticket: As long as you have a trading account in KLSE


So, sit back, relax and enjoy the free movie brought to you buy Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange.

Wishing everyone a happy 2014 new year.

Edit @ 5:11 p.m. Malaysia time: I was wrong. This year has no drama to watch. KLCI just closed as usual.





Tuesday, 17 December 2013

KLSE: historical high, does it smell bullish?

KLSE continues to break historical record high,but I didn't feel a sense of bullish in the stock market. What is actually lack of? There is only one definite answer: Volume! Without volume, new high means nothing.

Unconciously, KLCI has climbed to above 1850, closing at 1850.90 as of today. What? Previously many were unsure if it could break 1700, but now it is standing at 1850! Today volume is just 1 billion. From my experience, a bullish KLSE day volume can go up to 4 billion share. With only a quarter of previous huge volume, new high? 


KLCI



What happens to KLCI for such a long time? No volume yet the index can continue raising. When will this illusion end?

So, what's next?

Tuesday, 2 July 2013

2013 Q2 季度检讨

这个季度成绩,一句话:不及格。总资本 -10.63% 对比 KLCI 的 +6.1% (Q2)。半年成绩 -5.76%。

更多的交易都有记录:
大选前操作分析1

大选前操作分析2

大选前操作分析3 


大选前操作分析 -- 结论

意味着今年所有盈利尽数回吐。包括大选前认为做得不错交易尽数回吐。原因:

1)大选前空仓。大选后看到综指不断上涨,安奈不住情绪,立刻中套。要说空仓看到指数大涨,我还是第一次遇过。我失去了理性,看到就买,看到就买。结果一买就是中套。

2)之前已经找到交易的感觉瞬间不见。那种找到心水价来买股的感觉,竟然被综指的上涨冲掉了。脑袋想的就是“再不买就没有得买了”。结果一买就是亏损。一买立刻中套。

很多股项,我错过了就没有追的。这一次怎么会有那种“不买就没有得买”的感觉?都怪自己被综指 5月6号的大涨吓坏了。害怕再不买盈利就会跑掉。因为害怕赚不到钱而买股的心态,要怎么去赚钱?


没有得回头,只有吸取经验。当初被套的经验又来了。原来以前被套后,有了几次不错的盈利就会完全把被套的经验忘掉。看来这也是一种经验。

还有,记得大选前空仓的错误。太多散户这样子做了。庄家不会跟你来同一套的。当初信心不够坚定,现在马后炮也没有用了。

还剩下半年,今年的目标必须达成。

Wednesday, 26 June 2013

KLCI 技术篇:尝试站在缺口上面?

昨天的图画 KLCI回补缺口?》,我已经说了,KLCI要继续向上,这个星期必须站上缺口的上面,也就是大约1742 或者 1743点。今天,综合指数已经在挑战这个缺口支撑/阻力点了。



KLCI 挑战缺口
KLCI 挑战缺口 - 正在寻求突破颈线




今天最高点1744,可惜闭市的时候仍然在缺口的部分收市。这得看接下来的表现了。值得注意的是,今天的升幅大多是来自下半场的。成交量一般,没什么特出。

至于KLCI的下一个有力支撑在哪里?我觉得是200 EMA的线,也就是年线。目前是1687点。只要跌破了1687,我觉得KLCI是没有希望了的。

Tuesday, 25 June 2013

KLCI 综合指数回补缺口 + 套利 PRLEXUS

2013年5月6日 KLCI 大跳空高开,一个多月以来一直都没有回补缺口。现在外围局势不稳定。今天第一次试探回补。

KLCI 缺口回补
KLCI 综合指数缺口回补?




这缺口一旦回补,技术上来说 KLCI 短期无望了。将会继续调整一段时期。如果要继续向上,这个星期里面一定要站在缺口上面,才有机会继续。如果不是,那么基本上来说短期无望挑战高点。

今天KLCI一开始就大幅下跌,过后出现倒涨的情况。没想到这次倒涨竟然是假的,过后又会下回的。所以说,还是不要整天看市好。看了情绪受影响,反而更糟糕。



KLCI Summary
25/6/2013 KLCI 一览

PRLEXUS 今天套利了。根据我的观察是继续调整或者横摆最少3个月。之前2.40的时候握住不放,结果今天才甘愿放手。再一次,我不会卖股。盈利从几天前的 30++% 变成 10%。其实也是不错的回酬。只是我还学不会放手。今天卖出也是看到短期目标达成了,而且也觉得横摆的几率很大,所以就选择拿现金了。



卖出 PRLEXUS
卖出 PRLEXUS



Monday, 24 June 2013

KLSE:没有意外的补涨/补跌

续上个星期的大戏 《KLCI 再次上演好戏》,今天涉及股项全部补涨/补跌。这次马后炮。Batu Kawan top gainer 第一没有意外的。其他补涨包括 COASTAL, TDM, CBIP 等等。就是 STAR 和 JCY 了。


上个星期五 STAR 最后 2  buy up transaction 不知道的,变成水鱼了。

JCY 暴跌,完全打回原形。

CBIP 全部停板开市。

证明上个星期可能只是疏忽还是电脑故障之类的。反正就是没有什么。不是第一次出现,以前发生只是没有 limit up down 而已。

结论就是马照跑,股照炒,舞照跳。

最后还是恭喜捡到榴莲朋友。一笔

Friday, 21 June 2013

KLCI 再次上演好戏

美国 federal reserve 6月19开会,什么qe东西好像要2014停止了。东西不懂,但是看到市场反应很大。

昨天DJI, S&P 500, NASDAQ pattern一出,全部下跌超过 -2%。今天亚洲开始尽数完蛋。全部大跌开场。可是闭市时候跌幅收窄。

日本厉害,从 -2.4% 到 +1.66%。拉抬幅度,马股认输了。

KLCI 早上最低 1738 (-24 points) 闭市的 1762 (-6 point)。今天早上panic selling觉得可惜之前过。因为情绪因素卖股,结果后悔了。

照理来说,这种的,加上隔夜美国大跌的,表示崩盘没有来到。KLCI个案来说,只要大选缺口回补,下文。


经典好戏今天最后15分钟上演。马股其中几个股,都是基本面的,一些 limit down,一些limit up。这种拉抬之前发生过,不过是不会 limit up down 这么恐怖的。比如 IHH 《IHH 表演跳高?


要赚这种钱:

第一:好运
第二:有看市
第三:有留意到该股

3点都具备。恭喜你了。回酬非常丰厚。5分钟30%。其他交易所不到的。只有马股可以做到!


看看 top losers 排行榜:


KLCI Top losers
21/6/2013 Top losers

我可以说,最后10分钟买到TDM,BKAWAN,HSPLANT (全部种植?),COASTAL 和 CBIP 的朋友,恭喜你。星期一开始30%入袋。不要说到30%,讲20%就够了。3天20%,夫复何求?可能看照片看到last done price都在buyer,买不到。其实是买得到的。因为看回trade detail,知道 4:51:19 为止都还是buy up transaction。就是说就算发现了,真的发现了,也只有那么短短的 1分钟 可以买到。如果这样都买到,真的发了。至于那个 sell down 的 60 lot,希望不是散户 panic 之下做的,要不然真的会 am tui,因为BKAWAN的价值是不可能一天之内掉 30% 的。星期一肯定是top gainer第一名。


BKAWAN  交易记录
BKAWAN Transaction Details 详细交易记录


再来:Top Gainer

KLCI Top gainers
21/6/2013 Top gainers


Top gainer 只有 2 最后10分钟的。JCY 和 STAR。Top gainer 要求比较不一样:

第一:必须本来持有股,就是 JCY 跟 STAR

接下来:

如果本来queue sell:
最后看到自己爆升30%,卖,什么?可以直接key in 卖。还是可以的。时间大约 2分钟。看看下图的 sell down,如果本来没有 queue 到卖,那么还有2分钟可以赚30%稳稳入袋。至于持有这股而没有发现到这突发情况的,对不起了,星期一是卖不到这种价钱的。只有最后2个buy up transaction,更加对不起了。怎么看到爆升了还买?



STAR 交易记录
STAR detailed transactions 21/6/2013



如果本来有 queue sell:
这个就是厉害之处了。queue价钱只要在4:45之前没有match到,排队什么价钱,排 3.00都好,3.50好,一律match 3.71!不是横财什么?!这种情况,只有马股可以做到。


至于为什么庄家要这么做。我也不知道。这种情况很特别。之前发生过世有,不过通常就是月、季或者年的最后一天交易日拉抬,有发生过。不过就算拉抬压下,有 limit up down 的。这一次,特别。至于原因,还得看看过后发生什么事情。马股就是马股。