Showing posts with label INARI. Show all posts
Showing posts with label INARI. Show all posts

Sunday, 8 November 2015

KL: Buy back INARI's son

A good horse will not turn back to eat the old grass (direct translation from a Chinese proverb 好马不吃回头草). This is true for a good horse. However, I am certainly not one of the good one.

INARI, my old buddy which I have sold Oct 2014 during the big drop -- a pain when looking back. Ridiculously, I targeted RM 2.70 (before the second right issue ex) at the time of buying. I went up to as high as RM 3.30 (before ex) and I didn't sell. It wasn't until the big drop that I finally sold at a price well below my target price. This happened before, and history has repeated itself.

Anyway,INARI price soared with volume recently:

INARI

This is a very nice pattern, so I follow these steps that I used to do:

1. Price soared with high volume
2. If got adjustment, wait for it and adjustment must come with low volume
3. Buy in after a few trading days


As simple as that.

I intended to buy INARI-CW. But looking at INARI-CW, only CI and CJ have some "attractive features". However, I ended up buying INARI-WB as CI and CJ cannot play:

1.CI banker's is a scrooge, queuing only 500 lot for each price bid! **

**Conspiracy theory: I know conspiracy theory is a cliché nowadays, but could this imply that the banker has no confidence to earn money from this CW, hence the low volume queue?

2. CJ itself has "acceptable" volume for each price bid, but nobody trades it, hence no volume. CW with no volume -- cannot play.

INARI, I am back by buying your son!

Tuesday, 21 July 2015

KL: Call warrant analysis

Recently, MYEG touched a low of RM 2.40 on 16-6-2015 and a high of RM 3.03 on 2-7-2015 in 2 weeks time, equivalent to a ~26% return. If you leverage your capital by trading call warrants instead of the mother share, what would be your return then?

MYEG trend


Call warrant^ Low High Return
MYEG-CD* 0.340 0.480 41.2%
MYEG-CG* 0.190 0.325 71.1%
MYEG-CH 0.185 0.320 73.0%
MYEG-CI* 0.030 0.105 250%
MYEG-CJ 0.080 0.200 150%
MYEG-CK 0.060 0.145 142%
MYEG-CL 0.075 0.160 113%

* MYEG-CD,CG and CI expire on July, September and August 2015 respectively.
^ MYEG-CM was issued after 16-6-2015 and hence it was not included here.

The above table summarizes the return for MYEG call warrants. Based on How to choose a call warrant, the first priority is that the mother share must possess strong fundamental. For this criterion, MYEG is a no-brainer.

Next, look for the maturity date. This means that CD, CG and CI will be out of my sight. While CI secured the highest return in 2 weeks time, this is not a risk that I would take.

Then, look for the premium, gearing and volume. CH was good back then, but its gearing is comparatively low now, meaning a lower risk and lower return/loss. For a higher gearing, both CJ and CK are satisfying all criteria. As CJ has a lower exercise price and a lower conversion ratio, if I were to trade, CJ will be my pick. It turned out that CJ is indeed the best choice. It wouldn't be too hard to choose a call warrant in this way.

Another handy information is that we can actually know how much these call warrants were held by the issuer at the end of each month. If you go to Bursa Malaysia website > Listed companies > structured warrants. In the announcement category choose "Issuers' announcement", you will see this type of announcement:

ANNOUNCEMENT PURSUANT TO PARAGRAPH 5.35(4) AND 5.35(5) OF THE MAIN MARKET LISTING REQUIREMENTS OF BURSA MALAYSIA SECURITIES BERHAD

RHB

You will see that for MYEG-CJ, 64.68% of warrants are not held by the bank, i.e., a huge portion of warrants are held by other people. It may be big fish or retail investors. Either way, when the bank is no longer the market maker, the buy/sell queue volume will be low (e.g., from 5000 lots per bid to 1000 per bid) and this provides another criteria to choosing a call warrant.

While call warrant could bring you high returns in short time, it is a double-edged sword product. It can accelerate your capital growth or completely ruin your financial dream. My principle is to only trade call warrants with strong fundamentals mother share. INARI is an example, MYEG is another. Call warrant for shares like KNM, no matter how attractive they are, will be completely blind to me.

Friday, 8 May 2015

KLSE: INARI-CA, a "successful" trade

Following the recent failed short term trade, maybe I should also write some "successful" transactions.

If AWC made myself stumbling, then INARI-CA could at least offer me some condolences. It was the "secret weapon" that I bet on for the recovery of my capital since Oct 2014. Never happen before that I will buy call warrant "in quantity", after realizing how much opportunity I have lost since then.

At first I was really reluctant to sell -- want to earn more. But the imminent expiry date (the last trading day was 30 Apr 2015) makes me worried and decided to sell a few weeks before expiry. In the end INARI-CA expired at RM 0.090. I cannot imagine the "what if"? Glad that I have overcome my own "mental blockage" to sell a share.

Perhaps SHH can give me another comfort, that I am actually learning to sell a share at good timing. It is trading at about RM 1.20 at the moment. Again, what if?

What if it soars after selling? Let it be. Maybe I buy another share that has better return?
What if it drops after selling? Then no worries.

Saturday, 11 April 2015

About long term investment

This is my 5th year of involvement in KLSE. While surviving KLSE in this period is nothing more than ordinary, I am still glad that I have made it, with a capital growing at a satisfactory rate.

In retrospect, the way I "handle" KLSE is by intraday, short term (<6 months) and medium term (<3 years) tradings.

Intraday tradings were extremely rare, simply because the energy and time spent is too much to bear. Some examples, MAS and CYBERT(don't learn this). All have gone to holland by now.

Short term (<6 months) trading is something that I prefer more. INGRESS, SBCCORP and PRLEXUS are typical examples. Mostly use chart to look for entry price, seeking a return of 10-30% in less than 3 months. Sporadically, there will be chances to earn "fast money" in a few days, i.e. playing rebound, e.g.  PHARMA and TAKAFUL. When this occurs, if you are bold enough, ALL IN.

Medium term (>6 months <3 years) can be torturous at times. But good things come to those who wait. INARI, PNEPCB and SHH are my old buddy now. Return has been very satisfactory. 6 months - 2 years is a period that I am more comfortably to hold a share, because they always end up good return.

Where is my long term investment?

I understand that my current investment style will not last long. When the capital becomes large, so does the stake. At some point, I will like to invest long term -- in the sense to hold a share for at least 3 years.  This is where your "skill" is tested, to see how well you can spot a good counter, as if PBBANK and GENTING in the 1980s, DIGI in the 2000s and DLADY in the 2010s. What type of companies should I look for long term investment?

Are they companies that I really like? For this, I look no further from AirAsia and AAX. It is the airline that enables me to fly between PEN-KUL and KUL-SYD. But sentiment cannot help making decision in the stock market. AirAsia has been dropping for a while, since it hit a top of RM 4.00 in 2012. If you buy AAX since IPO and hold until now then you would have lost a lot. Perhaps there are just too many uncertainties in the airline industry.

Are they companies that I don't like to involve as an individual? This means health care and pharmaceutical industry. Nobody likes to go to hospital, yet everybody needs to go there at some point. Examples include KPJ, PHARMA and IHH.

How about companies that are needed in daily lives? Consumer products. NESTLE, DLADY and others.

At this stage I wouldn't buy any of these securities. I don't look for long term investment now. Long term investment does not make sense to me if the capital is not big enough, e.g. RM 500k. Until then, I can use a portion of this capital to invest "long-term". For now, the first task is still to grow my capital, which is what I have been doing for 5 years.

Saturday, 21 March 2015

KLSE: INARI-WB, a surprise match

The experience in the past few months has let me learnt to only look at the market after it is closed. It has become my habit now.

As I opened my portfolio few days ago, I was surprised to see an additional stock in my portfolio. I was shocked at first, because I didn't make any queue at all on that day. Soon after that I realized that my queue using “Good-till" function has matched at my entry price.

INARI-WB, 1.40. I queued this price last week, didn't think that it would really match. I like this kind of surprise, a transaction which is matched without any expectation and even without my prior notice.

Note: Good-till function, is a function that allows you to queue for a counter for up to a month without entering the queue manually everyday. HLeBroking actually possesses this function. I emailed HLIB sometime ago to enquire for this function. The efficiency of HLIB is absolutely impressive. Soon after that the representative called me and mentioned the risk of using the function "Good till". I said that I understand that and the representative will activate this function for my account. It was available to use in my account since then. When I have free cash, I can queue for a stock at a low price just for fun. Sometimes it really matches, you never know.





Saturday, 25 October 2014

Global market adjustment, what am I doing? (2)

In one week time, things can change dramatically. The things that I hold so tight to previously, all gone in a few days. It was so near to me, yet it is now far away from me.

Ironically, I told myself that my target price is RM 2.70 for INARI before. When it reached that price, I didn't sell.

Ironically, I sold some shares at RM 3.18 before, which at that time it went to a high of ~RM 3.30+, which I thought that I've sold it at a low price. Seriously? What happen to me, that I still crave to sell at the highest point? The tighter you cling to something, the faster it is going away from you.

It has been so ironic to me, that my final selling price is not even my target price previously. Even worse, this is not the first time I experience this (see here).

I also panic sell GHLSYS at the same day. It now seems so stupid of me, that I could have had a return of 30% a few days ago before I sold, and now it became 3%.

What am I doing? The market has not adjusted for sometime, and I indulge myself to this kind of situation, to have 100% shares at ALL TIME, thinking to grab every single cent from the market.

What am I doing? I take things for granted, as if I should always be making profit, although past experiences have taught me not to (never) take things for granted.

What am I doing? I did not let my capital to rest for even a single day. I let them to subject to the daily market fluctuation, watching the portfolio rise and down, until I lost myself.

What am I doing? This experience is similar to May-Aug 2013, of which I've written some reviews in Jan 2014. I was vindictive last year, which has cost me even more, so now I decided to rest for sometime. 

[to be continued]



Friday, 4 April 2014

2014 Q1 Review

Return: satisfied.

Transactions: 3

1. Top up PNEPCB
This transaction did pull up my average price. So I actually endured the "pain" when I topped up -- already 2X of my first entry price, how could I still buy it? But I don't want to regret, and this share did not disappoint me. It "hurts" me in the sense when seeing the % return "decreased dramatically", however, in terms of amount, the return is of course higher. 

2. Buy INARI-WA
I used to think that an investment of less than 2k wouldn't make me any huge return, at most a few hundreds in short time. But INARI-WA has really "broken my glasses". For this small amount of investment, the return is really surprising in 1 month time. This shows the power of investment, of how money is being duplicated. 

3. Buy CHHB
Clearly a "follow wind" trade, from guazi in Investalks. Buy at low volume, not too bad. 

Dividends 2
1. INARI 1.5 cent
2. INSAS 1 cent

Review:
This results show that I don't have to trade frequently to pursue for huge return. In fact, buy and hold may be the best way for high return - just do nothing and wait for the return, isn't this the best part of investment?

Yes, I could have sold INARI at high price and then wait for adjustment and then go in again, but how could I catch the moment precisely? What if I miss it, and then just let the rest of the return gone?

Yes, I could have sold PNEPCB on 14 Feb 2014 @ RM 0.84 and switch share for another return. And until today it did prove working, since PNEPCB still hovering around this price, but WHAT IF? I am loyal to this share, really feel reluctant to sell at this price though.

After all, it is easier said than done. When my capital gets larger, when I have some cash to play really short term, then I can go for different trading style. For now, I am satisfied with my return.

Sunday, 16 March 2014

KLSE: INARI price soars, transferring to Main Market?

Last time when I wrote something about target price reached, where to?

My target price was RM 1.71, but now the share price stood at RM 2.27. I didn't make any transaction, as I found no reason to sell this share.  The decision is correct, at least, until now.

Last Friday, INARI volume was relatively higher - not a good sign. As volume comes, I would choose to go. The price has increased ceaselessly over the past two weeks. Seeing the share price soars day by day, I am very excited at first, but soon the feeling changed.

INARI


I found myself to be even greedier than ever: when my portfolio sees an earning that has never appeared before, I found myself to be even more unsatisfied. I want to see EVEN more profits. Is this human nature, of the more you have, the more unsatisfied you will be, or is this just about my boundless greed? I guess, in some sense, that this is part of human nature, a weakness that can be improved, but not eradicated.

Anyway, I believe the movement in the past two weeks is strongly related to the news regarding transfer from ACE market to main market. It has been more than two months since the application has been made on 10 Jan 2014.

It breaks new high everyday, sky is the only limit. I have no more target price for this share, will only watch and see what happens, only to decide what to do next.

Sunday, 19 January 2014

Target price reached, where to?

Where to, is a verbal short form of English, meaning where are you heading to? what is next? etc.

Selling a share has always been a difficult task, much more difficult that buying. But if a person has no greed, is not that hard actually though. It is hard mainly because of greed, earn money then not satisfied, want more.

One of my rule to selling a stock is that target price has been achieved. From my previous experience, I never feel satisfied even my target price was reached. It doesn't bring me any good at the end. After that, I told myself to at least sell a portion of shares, locking the profit. But now I didn't deliver what I've learnt before.

I try finding excuses for this, e.g. because the graph is so beautiful, how to sell? Historical high, nice volume, how to sell? Like that cannot sell lah.


inari


So? See first lah. Now I set a higher target price and see what happens.

The financial market is really a good reflection of ourselves. When the decision point comes, it is a good time to see how if emotion(greedy) or rationale (sensible) prevails. Anyway, this is a good lesson for me, another chance to see what should I do when the target price comes.

Saturday, 18 January 2014

First dividend in 2014

Together with the interim dividend, INARI has announced a special dividend at the same time, a total of 1.5 cent of dividend for a quarter. I love the word "special dividend", although not much, it sounds like a bonus stuff to the shareholders. 




Yes, my first dividend in 2014 is brought by INARI. I love dividend. Looking forward for my second one next month, i.e. INSAS. Also, longing for a surprise dividend. if it were to come, it should come in two weeks time, hopefully.





Saturday, 11 January 2014

My share doubled its price, i.e. "kai fan"

Last month I just wrote something about a share that I've hold for the longest time.

Yesterday, I mentioned that I really look forward to my first "kai fan" share, i.e. 100% return, in 2013 review.

Note: "kai fan" = 开番 in mandarin
                = "open slip" by direct translation (meaningless)
                = doubled share price in English term

To my surprise, the share that I look forward to be the first share that doubled its price is not the first share that doubled its price in my portfolio. I am still very excited to see the first 100% in my portfolio, finally, after 3 years of stock investment.

pnepcb double share price


I've hold this for 13 months. Not too bad after seeing this return. But the process is not that easy, especially if you look at the market everyday. This stock can be completely deadly for weeks and months, with only small volume traded.

The weightage of this share was 25% of my total capital by the time I bought in. Although I would think of buying not enough (greed has no bounds), but even if I put in a large portion of my capital, say 50%, being half of my capital locked in there for so long, how could I go through the process and how much opportunity would I lost? After all, there is no regret in stock market. The fact is, nobody will know when would a share move, just like this one, near to 50% rise in 2 days, how could one speculate this? Even tough you really look at this share all the time, the energy and time that you spent on it would not worth it too. It is impossible to know when a share will move, so the only way we can do is buy and hold. Buy before it moves. As long as you are confident with your choice, just hold.

Ironically, my portfolio seems to hint me to reduce my frequent trade in stock market -- I would expect INARI to double its price first, but at last is this "black horse", of which I've hold for so long that jump the queue. Is like telling me that as long as you are confident with a share, just hold, time will bring you the return that you deserve. I will remember this lesson. 

Now, question comes: when to sell it? I don't really have a target price for this. If really have one, I would say at least RM 0.80. But now I still don't see any reason to sell it -- this new high was broken by a record high volume too, nice chart!

Also, today the stock closed at Buy 0.595 & Sell 0.600 with a sell of 13000+ lots, i.e. a lot as compared to usual queue of 200-500 lots. I would say that this is a "fake" resistance, as most of the shares are in the big fish hand. Today high of 0.600 has only traded for 2 lots, an obvious act by retail investors. I couldn't print screen of the queue tough, after Bursa has upgraded its trading system to BTS2. It wouldn't take immediate time to break 0.600, I hope so, as this share should rest for a while now before continue moving.


Finally, some Manglish, i.e. Malaysian English. Whenever I talked to someone that I have this share, people will look at it and say:

this kind of stock can buy meh?

no volume one, how to buy?

like that need to hold how long? 

like this can earn money meh? 

Friday, 10 January 2014

2013 review: part 5 (end)

In summary, 2013 breaks several personal investment records: (it's easy to break though, cause I am only 3 years in KLSE)

  1. record loss of a single share, in terms of amount -- not something worth bragging
  2. record earn of single share, in terms of amount -- something I am very thankful for
  3. record dividend income, a bonus for me, still wish to get more dividend this year
Several mistake that (hopefully) can never be repeated:

  1. There is nothing like what I should have earned from a bullish market. The stock market does not owe me anything. That kind of thinking and attitude will only make me lost even more.
  2. It turns out that holding 0% share in a bullish market can make me to lose control in stock market for months. I am very grateful for the time this lesson came, fortunately it did not plunge by the time I got in to "revenge". Hopefully I will remember this lesson for years. Never fight with the market.
  3. Before buy / sell a share, read the quotes and experience that I've gone through before.
  4. All in style works pretty well when the capital is small, however, the style will need to be adjusted ones the capital gets bigger. All in a share using large capital is too risky - you don't have any more cash to buy other share or average down when the opportunity comes.
This year, I enthusiastically wait for my 100% single share return, I am pretty sure it will come very soon, and then only see if I want to continue holding or sell. Just like what typical Malaysians would say "later only see how lah". 

Dividend "sneak-peak": one to come next week (INARI), one to come next month if I hold the share (INSAS), which I probably will. "money, nobody will think it is too much one mah"

One more expectation: surprise dividend



After 13 years, this company paid out a dividend last year, announced on 29 Jan 2013. I was very happy to receive the dividend last year, and expect something this year too, hopefully not too long. Based on last month and today's performance (+17%), I guess something is coming very soon (less a question than a statement).


Tuesday, 7 January 2014

2013 review: part 4

I changed to INARI. This was quite a hot share in KLSE in 2013. This share has something to do with me. It was first listed on 19 July 2011, where I treated it as "one night stand", i.e. only hold for 1 day and sell.

In Feb 2013, I suddenly thought of it, and observe and took profit  not long after that. I bought it back later, this is very unusual for me, I don't usually bought back a share which the price is higher than then price that I've sold. But I don't want to regret anymore. Then, I hold it until now.

Since I've mentioned this share, let me share my view on it. Few weeks back, some in the Investalks forum said that the financial report look suspicious, especially from the cash flow side. I am not an expert in this, so can't comment about it. Technically, I found no reason to sell this share at this point.

INARI


Look at the graph:

All circle regions, i.e. pulling period were accompanied by big volume. Whenever there is a relatively high volume, the candle will be big white. And it doesn't move non-stop, instead, it move up steadily, move and rest, move and adjust. During adjustment, volume are small. 

Then, 3 vertical lines shows that whenever a white candle came, the volume is relatively higher. No exception.

This graph is just beautiful, so why sell it at this point? More importantly, I am really looking forward for my 1st "kai fan" share, i.e. a share that double its price.

I am very fortunate to have swifted to this share, and hold it until now.

[to be continued]

Wednesday, 1 January 2014

2013 review: part 1

Thankfully, my target is achieved by the end of the year, thanks to the share that I bought last quarter, that brings me a record paper gain, or my investment return will be in red.

For 2013, I still use the same technique as in 2012 - observe, buy in, wait and sell. This is in total contrast of what I planned at the end of 2012.What is planned is not delivered, especially the 30% cash part, I did not keep a 30% cash all the time. In fact, I all in all the time. How come like that one? Greed.

At 1H of the year, my return was negative. The bullish market after election reflects my weakness in stock market, I went in emotionally, without any rationale.  It costs me a big loss. Then, knowing that my target is even further away, I kept on doing the wrong thing - all in a call warrant. This is just too scary for me. Fortunately I admitted my mistake,cut lost within 1 month, still incurring a lost of 2k.

The turning point is in August, where I all in a share that I traded previously, that brings me the return I have today.


Dividend is a total bonus for me when I focus on capital gain- RM 998.30, touching 4 figures, that is surreal. And one more dividend to come in January, already ex in Dec 2013, I love dividend. 



Wednesday, 27 November 2013

观察 INSAS: 主力集中

INSAS 最近大马交易所非常一个INARI)妈妈近期突然来个拉升,接下来经典洗盘。



INSAS


11月25公布业绩,漂亮,net profit double。业绩很漂亮的结果有2种:

1.股价gap up,一去不回头
2.庄家要震仓。股价gap up,然后回调。

INSAS的主力采用的是第二种。昨天的trade detail我没有记录下来。不过我知道昨天是gap up开始,然后收阴的。gap up买入的通常是看到业绩很好然后追高的。庄家直接来一个洗盘。今天洗到很够力。洗到0.89才甘愿。看了今天交易记录,尾盘就来个拉升了。


INSAS



INSAS buy sell


观察一下。lot几千lot交易量做。价钱上,下。可见筹码多么集中!

事情已经很明显:这那么的。

INSAS的孩子INARI,昨天出业绩。q-t-q净利X3,1.5 cent股息。这业绩好得不得了。结果洗盘方法一个样:gap up开市,洗盘,让不鉴定的持票者出局,尾盘同样来个拉升:


INARI

买股票,要有耐心。整天看盘,像看到INARI这样业绩好反而下跌的,如果信心不够,胡乱猜疑,岂不是错过了会生金蛋的鹅?

Tuesday, 9 July 2013

INARI 申请转主板

INARI 上个星期五申请星期一暂停交易上半场。消息出来后,原来是换名跟申请转主板。这种上升趋势中暂停交易的股,通常都是好事来的。详情看大马交易所 Bursa Malaysia Announcement: Bursa Malaysia


消息出来后,人家都会买。昨天2:30分开市之前我有想过冲进去买。可是最后还是下不了手。因为知道消息出来后都不可以再追,已经太迟了!决定不进场。结果下半场开市 0.770 闭市 0.730. 进去的话立刻中套。本来有货在手的加码还无所谓,我这种进去的就等着做水鱼。

这股让我心痛了很久。是我太早套利的股。看回去这里:记录INARI操作

算了,已经错过了就算了。往前看。

明天亚航X上市。今晚美国脸色,明天过!

Sunday, 19 May 2013

大选前操作分析2 -- 记录INARI操作

这股买进的时候纯粹因为钱放在户口没事做,打开交易系统,手痒下就买了。其实买进的时机是不错的。因为这股4月中来野。非常可惜的是我当时非常害怕选举,结果心急之下都尽数套利了。



上次讲是讲说卖了后就不要看了。讲是这样讲。可是现在看回去,wakao?!什么来的?竟然涨了50%?《套利INARI》

看回去,也可以马后炮一下的。当时附加股消息出来后,我竟然在低量的时候卖出。当时的考量完全就是有赚就好,入袋平安。其实也没有错。

不过这个交易可以拿来借镜。成交量低的时候是属于洗盘的时期。卖了就等于放了一个会生金蛋的母鸡。我那时就因为害怕而把母鸡送走了。

后悔?当然会后悔。不过这就是股市。没有早知这回事的。能够做的就是吸取教训,别再重犯。

就只因为大选,错失了好多良机,说到来都是情绪问题作怪。以后能够做的是好好分析趋势,再来决定如何取舍。不可以让情绪操控了自己的理智。

Friday, 12 April 2013

套利 INARI

这股必须套利了。附加股的消息出来,我价钱放太高(怎么那么贪心?),结果卖不出。今天怎样都得卖了。我没有兴趣买附加股。更重要的是,我不想抱票过投票日。




盈利来说一个Bonus。股息有 Capital Gain,持股没有2个月夫复何求?必须学会套利。卖了也是没有办法的。资金需要休息(的)。不给资金休息,跟我翻脸,不是惨?


之前有太多次死抱不放的股,让我错失了好多。 这次,无论INARI后市如何,我都不顾了。

Saturday, 30 March 2013

吹吹水 -- INARI 单日洗盘

股息实在吸引我。每个季度息! DY 7-8% 肯定不是问题。而且今年以来一直陆续买进。月,当时现金太多,看到买,不改。是个错误,记住犯。


今天看到大宗交易 1000 lot。对于说,属于罕见。结果下午时候原形毕露,原来之前都是吓吓而已。0.435 和 0.440 的 1000+ lot 卖盘瞬间吃光!


放图。线图漂亮,今天的成交量完美。


最新股息是4月8日Ex。0.9 Cent Single Tier。史上最高股息。说史上好像很高这样,其实这股还很新啦。上市都还没有2年。呵呵。

如果让我hold到ex date,那么今年就会拿到3次的股息了。第一次拿股息拿到那么爽。虽然只是几百块,可是那种满足感,难以形容!

继续朝向今年的目标前进。