Showing posts with label Dow Jones. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dow Jones. Show all posts

Thursday, 9 July 2015

News by media, view by myself (end)

Writing this, I couldn't help but to recall about past experience of "big drop", i.e. Oct 2014. Last October, there was no sign prior to dropping, and the US stock market touched a bottom on 15-16 Oct 2014.

DJI Oct 2014


Then, in the mid of dropping, came the news:

16 Oct 2014:
Dow suffers largest mid-day drop in THREE YEARS as Ebola fears

16 Oct 2014:
Anxiety about Ebola

When the stock market started to plummet, there was no sign and no news. Then, the news came out. The "timing" of the news couldn't have been more "accurate". I still remember vividly how every media was reporting the fear of widespread of Ebola, including a future projection of Ebola cases of how it will become an epidemic. Interestingly, do you still see coverage of Ebola now? It is miraculously disappear from the media. I was scared at that time and learnt a big lesson, I am not buying any story since then.

The current Greece drama is amusing. In my own view, there will be no "Grexit" (how interesting can English evolve!), not now. Time will unfold this soon.

The crux of this series of blog is no more than this: the media has been highly manipulated, and trading by news will bring you nowhere but losses (Holland). While it is not easy to do the opposite when everybody is selling fearfully, it certainly pays off, sooner or later, if you can think and act independently at those critical moments.

PS: A question to ponder -- now almost everyone is talking about the potential of US to raise the interest rate. While raising interest rate will be detrimental to the stock market, will this happen when everyone is expecting the same?

Tuesday, 28 April 2015

NASDAQ: Amazon soars after earning release

I fail to fathom the US stock market. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) was trading at USD 445 (24-4-2015), jumped from USD 390 on the day preceding the earning release. The "dumbfounding" thing is, the net profit of the latest fiscal report is a net loss of USD 57M / EPS of USD -0.12 (compared with a net gain of USD 108M / EPS of USD 0.23).

Yes, of course you cannot look at net profit alone in isolation from other figures. The revenue jumped 49% to USD 1.6B. The operating cash flow also increased significantly. The main reason for this is reported to be due to the outperforming cloud services and strong retail sales.

Having bought something from them once, I am very impressed by Amazon. The item is of great value, even after including the "international shipping" (which is really not much) and the weakening Australian Dollar. 50% discount is very common. For example, PNY Turbo 128GB USB 3.0 Flash Drive is now selling at USD 40 shipped to Australia. This is equivalent to  AUD 51.2 (based on the current rate of 1 USD: 1.28 AUD). The cheapest you could find on Ebay is AUD 68. The example goes on and on, and applies for all sorts of items.

Amazon has invested a lot to provide all kinds of new services, with a hope that in years to come, they will gain the "market share" and what they have invested in will pay back in avalanche.

According to the earning forecast, even in year 2018 the EPS would only be USD 8.29, i.e. the PE is still sky high. Perhaps this is something you can only find in a "matured" market, that considering really long term growth of a company, Amazon worths to trade at this price. This is something you cannot find in KLSE, and this excites me to involve in NYSE and NASDAQ, a market that really requires a sharp investing insight.

Sunday, 1 June 2014

US markets hit record high (consistently?)

I wonder how 1 month can fly in a blink of eye -- I didn't notice this at all until I checked my last post. I was just too obsessed with my stuffs, and I realized I shouldn't.

Now, US markets closed at new high is not new anymore. Let's have some statistics.

Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJIA):
 31 Dec 2013: Record high close of 16576, see related news 
 4   Apr 2014: Hit an intraday historical high of 16631, see here
 30 Apr 2014: Closed at record high, at 16580
 9  May 2014: Close of 16,583.34 narrowly topped the previous record, less than 2 weeks ago
12 May 2014: Continues from last Friday, closed at historical high again, at 16695
13 May 2014: Continued the rally, closed above 16700 for the first time, at 16715
30 May 2014: Another record high, 16717, see related news

S&P 500 is another key index in US markets, have a similar trend too. closed at 1923 last Friday, a fresh record in the history, see Wall Street Journal.

How about NASDAQ? Nasdaq closed at 14-year high of 4357 at 5 Mar 2014. Media cannot use a record high for NASDAQ, because its record high was set in 2000 during the dot.com bubble, where NASDAQ soared above 5000 before collapsing. Is NASDAQ actually heading to another rally?

Now, how about Bursa Malaysia? It remains as boring as it can be, as usual. Bursa also closed at a record high of 1887 on 19 May 2014. A 1900 seems to be so close, and so far. Will Bursa breaks the history as well? If it really does, I hope it comes with volume.