Showing posts with label Call Warrant. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Call Warrant. Show all posts

Sunday, 10 January 2016

2015 Review

Generally,

1. 2015 signals the rise of put warrants in KLSE, which is something that I did not touch at all in 2015, which turned out to be a correct decision: when something seems so hot in the market and everybody is trying to make a slice from it, the wise action to do is to stay away from it.

2. 2015 also sees the birth of CHINA-A50 call and put warrants. Catching a correct trend could easily secure a profit of 20% in a week (and vice versa). I played once and that's it. China stock market is comparatively volatile and these structure warrants aren't meant to hold long.

3. 2015 is the year of export counters due to an abrupt depreciation of MYR. Glove stocks are the dominant players. Unfortunately I did not catch any of them.

About myself:

1. Dividend sums up to be RM 1338.19 -- not a big amount, really, but it is a bonus for me.

2. The number of trade I have transacted is close to the sum of 2011-2014, i.e., unbelievably high. Some are really good decisions, but followed by other bad decisions not long after. Still, I need to learn to hold cash without "feeling itchy on my hand".

3. I bought some CWs that if I continue holding I would have secure a huge profit. But there is no such thing anyway.

Using busyness as an excuse, I buy shares purely based on suggestions on the Internet. This is nothing to be proud of, but this is what I have done for the past year. Although quite a number of mistakes have been made, the overall return is satisfactory. Perhaps later this year I would have time to start making my own study on the market.

I set a high aim for 2016, hopefully to achieve it by the end of the year.




Wednesday, 21 October 2015

KL: FGV call warrants analysis

I traded FGV once -- on the first day when it was listed publicly. The IPO price was RM 4.55, but opened much higher on the first trading day. I bought @ RM 5.39 early in the morning. Seeing that the trend did not going well, I sold on the same day @ RM 5.40, incurring a small loss after brokerage fee. That was more than 3 years ago. Luckily I was determined to sell at that day, or else?

Now that FGV seems to rebound from the bottom. I am interesting to catch a rebound, thus I studied FGV call warrants.


*Credit to the Macquarie Group, an Australian based company, for having the very useful website Malaysia Warrants to enable me to summarize this in a few minutes.

Based on how I choose a call warrant, I look for CW with >180 days expiry. Thus the choice comes down to C6-C9. For low premium, FGV-C6 and C8 (newly listed) stands out. C6 has a lower premium and higher gearing but C8 has a lower conversion ratio. Although FGV-C9  has high gearing (also newly listed), the premium is way too high. Therefore, C6 and C8 will both be a good choice.

Both C8 and C9 were issued yesterday. Hence you can see the style of CW issued by different issuers. 

1. Macquarie exercise price is really high, while RHB is really nice.
2. Macquarie CWs always have relatively shorter expiry date.
3. A conversion ratio of 3.4 for a share price of RM 1.7x is too high. I am very impressed with the CW issued by RHB, for having such a low conversion ratio!

Disclaimer: at the time of posting, the author does not have any FGV nor FGV call warrants.

Sunday, 13 September 2015

KL: the rise of put warrants in KLSE

Index call and put warrants (FBMKLCI-CX and FBMKLCI-HX) have been a hot topic for discussion lately. Opening the trading platform, you see that FBMKLCI-H and FBMKLCI-C warrants are trading in the top volume, literally everyday.

This is something that has never happened before in KLSE. Usually you only see penny stocks appearing in the top volume section. Now the game has clearly changed. It has already gone insane until the stage that when KLCI rises, you will even see put warrant to go up and call warrant to go down; and vice versa.

As far as I could remember, call warrants started to gain public acceptance around 2006. Back then, put warrant does not exist in KLSE. According to this website, it wasn't until 2010-2011 that the first index put warrant FBMKLCI-HA was issued (apparently by OSK?). But this put warrant was born in unlucky time of bull period and ended up worthless.

Then, FBMKLCI-HB was issued by CIMB in July 2014. It became the spotlight in KLSE during the big drop in Oct 2014. And because of that, put warrants are mushroomed by investment banks. To date, the latest put warrant is FBMKLCI-H9: more than 30 index put warrants were issued in less than 1 year. This is unprecedented and extraordinary

After all this time, I would say that the late 2014 to 2015 is where put warrants have gained the public awareness.  This is good, investors know that now they can trade the index or stocks in both ways. However, I do doubt if now is a good time to trade put warrants: everyday in the top volume has already made me lost interest, what more to say when these warrants are extremely overvalued now?

Tuesday, 21 July 2015

KL: Call warrant analysis

Recently, MYEG touched a low of RM 2.40 on 16-6-2015 and a high of RM 3.03 on 2-7-2015 in 2 weeks time, equivalent to a ~26% return. If you leverage your capital by trading call warrants instead of the mother share, what would be your return then?

MYEG trend


Call warrant^ Low High Return
MYEG-CD* 0.340 0.480 41.2%
MYEG-CG* 0.190 0.325 71.1%
MYEG-CH 0.185 0.320 73.0%
MYEG-CI* 0.030 0.105 250%
MYEG-CJ 0.080 0.200 150%
MYEG-CK 0.060 0.145 142%
MYEG-CL 0.075 0.160 113%

* MYEG-CD,CG and CI expire on July, September and August 2015 respectively.
^ MYEG-CM was issued after 16-6-2015 and hence it was not included here.

The above table summarizes the return for MYEG call warrants. Based on How to choose a call warrant, the first priority is that the mother share must possess strong fundamental. For this criterion, MYEG is a no-brainer.

Next, look for the maturity date. This means that CD, CG and CI will be out of my sight. While CI secured the highest return in 2 weeks time, this is not a risk that I would take.

Then, look for the premium, gearing and volume. CH was good back then, but its gearing is comparatively low now, meaning a lower risk and lower return/loss. For a higher gearing, both CJ and CK are satisfying all criteria. As CJ has a lower exercise price and a lower conversion ratio, if I were to trade, CJ will be my pick. It turned out that CJ is indeed the best choice. It wouldn't be too hard to choose a call warrant in this way.

Another handy information is that we can actually know how much these call warrants were held by the issuer at the end of each month. If you go to Bursa Malaysia website > Listed companies > structured warrants. In the announcement category choose "Issuers' announcement", you will see this type of announcement:

ANNOUNCEMENT PURSUANT TO PARAGRAPH 5.35(4) AND 5.35(5) OF THE MAIN MARKET LISTING REQUIREMENTS OF BURSA MALAYSIA SECURITIES BERHAD

RHB

You will see that for MYEG-CJ, 64.68% of warrants are not held by the bank, i.e., a huge portion of warrants are held by other people. It may be big fish or retail investors. Either way, when the bank is no longer the market maker, the buy/sell queue volume will be low (e.g., from 5000 lots per bid to 1000 per bid) and this provides another criteria to choosing a call warrant.

While call warrant could bring you high returns in short time, it is a double-edged sword product. It can accelerate your capital growth or completely ruin your financial dream. My principle is to only trade call warrants with strong fundamentals mother share. INARI is an example, MYEG is another. Call warrant for shares like KNM, no matter how attractive they are, will be completely blind to me.

Saturday, 24 January 2015

How to choose a call warrant?

The last time I wrote about call warrant fundamentals was years ago, see CW Fundamentals 1, CW Fundamentals 2, CW Fundamentals 3 for details . Words couldn't describe how fast time flies. Today I am going to write about how I determine which CW to buy.

Make sure you do some homework before buying call warrants. Every one knows it is of high risk. Before choosing CW, I choose mother share. First, mother share must have strong fundamentals, making profits. E.g., I will not buy KNM call warrants. Second, mother share has potential upside. By only having the right mother share, you can expect to have a positive return, because call warrants follow mother share movement.

Lazy people like me will go to i3investor to have a glimpse of all structured warrants available for a particular stock. It contains useful information about warrants listed in a form of table. For example, if I am looking at MYEG CW, search for MYEG, then go to warrants drop down menu. Easy.

MYEG Call Warrant
(Figure print-screened from i3investor)

How to decide which one to go for? For me, I look at the following preference in order.

1. Expiry. No long expiry date no talk. This is so important. Preferably at least six months. Under special conditions (e.g. negative premium, high gearing etc, will consider 3-6 months. Under any condition, I will not touch CW with less than 3 months expiry)

2.1 Premium & gearing. Low premium and high gearing are preferred.

2.2 In my opinion, volume has the same importance as premium and gearing. Liquidity is important (without "so" as in expiry). First, it ensures that the CWs are easy to buy and sell. Second, the buy-sell spread is small if it is traded actively, good for us.

3. Issuer. CIMB always has the "best valued" call warrants. Recently I see that Macquarie releases a lot of structured warrants in KLSE. Isn't this the Macquarie Group, the largest investment group in Australia?

OK. By looking at the first priority, CB, CC, CE and CF are out of consideration. Then, CD has the lowest premium, which is the best among itself, CG and CH (I look at premium more than gearing). But if you look at the graph of MYEG-CD:


Listed for 6 months, it is traded for less than 20 days. Clearly, I will not buy this kind of CW. You will find it hard to buy and sell. So, we are left with CG and CH.

CH has a longer expiry date, a lower premium and s higher gearing than CG. CH is also traded more actively than CG. So the choice is clear. Actually, given its low premium, CF is a good choice too. But it is expired in 4 months. So, I would go for the safer choice with longer expiry date.

Next thing to do? Prepare money, find a target buying price and queue. For call warrant, I will be very particular, even a price bid of 0.005 difference matters to me, because it is bought in quantity.

Sunday, 25 August 2013

KLCI 技术图

一个图:


综指跳空低开,绝非好事。情况还真罕见。5月6高开,缺口从来没有回补。结果缺口真的不用补,因为蜡烛直接开在下面了,什么?

KLCI Gap



看来KLCI不了多久了。当然崩盘也不是立刻的。有预兆的崩盘还叫崩盘吗?要来的时候就突然跟你来,连逃的地方都没有。还是谨慎为上。

顺便一提,马股有个HA,HB,HC...的东西,put warrant,call warrant相反,股市的。之前凭单都是AMBANK,对付,容易赚钱。有空研究最近有没有其他银行put warrant

Thursday, 22 August 2013

研究 MAYBULK Call Warrant

今天股市大跌开市,一开始就是 -17点。过后1小时里面 -25,过后又变成 -15,让人以为 KLCI 的奇迹又将再次发生。结果今天不一样了。过后继续跌。


今天追踪了 MAYBULK-CI 的 buyer 和 seller,看看庄是怎么交易 call warrant 的。

来点基本资料, 看 Bursa Malaysia

MAYBULK-CI:

发行商:OSK
股数: 50 M

发行日:7-12-2012
到期日:6-12-2013

Exercise price: 1.30
Conversion ratio: 2:1

21-8-2013 闭市价:0.235
21-8-2013 母股:1.75

Premium = 0.235*2 + 1.30 - 1.75 / 1.75 = 1.1%

这是 MAYBULK 最能交易的 CW,原因很简单:成交量最大,premium 低,买卖价差不大,不会贵。可惜的是到期日只有3个月。

今天看着股价变动,看着 CW 买卖价钱变动,发觉原来 CW 买卖价钱完全跟着母股买卖的。价钱?当然庄家了。相信电脑 set  formula,母股买卖价钱什么,CW 买卖什么价钱。今天的 buyer 排队都是 3000 lot 排,都是 1000 lot 卖。只有发行商那么而已。


接下来就是这样子排法:

             BUY QTY       BUY      SELL      SELL QTY

MAYBULK                   1.76      1.77
MAYBULK-CI    3000        0.235     0.240        1000

MAYBULK                   1.75      1.76
MAYBULK-CI    3000        0.230     0.240        1000

MAYBULK                   1.77      1.78
MAYBULK-CI    3000        0.240     0.245        1000

MAYBULK                   1.74      1.75
MAYBULK-CI    3000        0.225     0.235        1000

MAYBULK                   1.73      1.75
MAYBULK-CI    3000        0.220     0.235        1000

MAYBULK                   1.73      1.74
MAYBULK-CI    3000        0.220     0.230        1000


基本上就是母股 buyer price 一变动,下 1 cent,CW buyer price立刻下调0.005.立刻,自动。明显就是电脑操纵。

其实庄家价钱不差。比如母股 buyer 1.75 时候,CW 0.230 价。买到折合母股是 1.76,有点亏本。当然,相信电脑程序随着情况调动 formula。

不会糟糕。OSK 的 Call warrant有做功课,是可以交易的。


Wednesday, 10 July 2013

AIRASIA 认购凭单调整详解

今天亚航 X 上市,我还特地早上开着电脑等开始。哪里知道 tony 的钱真的不是那么容易赚的。 1.26 开市,成交量第一,1.25 闭市。一点 "kang tou" 都没有得捡。sien 掉。IPO 抽中的也什么甜头都没有。根本就没有gap up。


我也顺便把 call warrant 放了。AIRASIA-CY。不敢收太久。还有3个月到期,AIRASIA 走势图其实不错,只是我不想再抱票了,怕死 kiasi


AIRASIA-CY

AIRASIA 的凭单也不少。选AIRASIA-CY就只因为成交量。那么多孩子,只有这个最有交易。溢价也不高,所以就买进了。这是第二次买入 call warrant,第一个是去年交易的,MUDAJYA-CH -- 这里。1星期亏损接近15%。

AIRASIA-CY 曾经因为AIRASIA的特别股息也调整exercise price 和 conversion ratio。本来是这样的:


Exercise Price = RM 2.85
Conversion Ratio = 4:1

因为特别股息,调整详情可以看 Bursa Malaysia AIRASIA-CY


Adjustment Factor ("AF") = (P – D) / (P) 

P exdate 闭市价。D dividend (RM 0.18)。这里 exdate 是 3月11日。那么P 就是 3月10闭市RM 3.00. 那么 AF 就是 0.94.

的 exercise price 就是AF = 2.85*0.94 = RM 2.679
 
Exercise Ratio 就是 1/AF * Exercise ratio = 1/0.94 * 1/4 = 0.26598,就是3.76:1


我买的时候 AIRASIA 母股 3.03, 算到来溢价是:

0.115*3.76 + 2.679 - 3.03 = 2.7%

不会高。gearing ratio 是 3.03/(0.115*3.76) = 7。

这一次做得不错。买得不多,这种东西,慢慢的。掌握到技巧了,以后自然可以找到机会交易。


Sunday, 30 December 2012

2012 年尾结账

2012年就这样来到了尾声。看一看今年的回酬,有达到目标。这是我感到非常欣慰的。比起去年进步太多了。回望今年的起起落落,实在感到感叹万分。

今年所采用的策略都是倾向于短线的,就是持股少过3个月。通常就是观察 - 找到目标价 - 买进 - 等待。等待时期通常是2个月就可以看到回酬。只因为我目前资金小,才使用这种方法。我很清楚的知道今年的回酬很大因素都是运气来的。并且这个方法是不能够长期使用的。

面对新的一年,有必要调整一下自己的作风了。2013年的目标回酬是至少20%。资金增加了一点,可以开始分配投资方法:

  • 30% 买进好股,尤其是属于黑马的
  • 30% 使用同样策略
  • 10% 投机CW
  • 30% Free Cash 等待机会使用。

可是这毕竟是计划。在现实中计划总赶不上变化的。像我这样,每次一有Free Cash就会乱买一通,实在不像话。这一点有必要节制。每次乱买后看到更好的就不能买了,太可惜了。Free Cash太重要了。在不稳定的世道,现在随时是翻身的机会!所以明年无论如何都得保留一部分的现金做后盾!

今年我终于看清楚了人生的目标。有了一个奋斗的目标才不至于迷失在人生的道路上。为了理想,这条路无论多艰辛,都得走下去!

Tuesday, 25 December 2012

AFFIN 的 CW

这几天懒散的做了点功课。研究了Affin的Call Warrant。Affin是相对便宜的银行股。年年派息,成长也不错。可惜股价已经横摆了一段日子。

截止2012年第3季度,AFFIN净利468M。如果最后一季也赚个160M,那么全年净利628M,比起去年成长了23%,EPS 42 Cent。以目前的股价来看,PE还不到10,实属便宜!

这样吧。当做AFFIN的成长是10%,保守估计来的。股息暂时不列入考量。以下是4只CW的资料:


 
CK出局。因为期限只剩下1个月。
CL和CM的Premium太高。

最值得买的就是CJ了。期限3个月。Premium才1%而已。以10%的成长率,CJ到期应该值0.170. 顺便附上AFFIN的技术图。



               


Sunday, 23 December 2012

Call Warrant 认购凭单基本研究 (3)

会对CW有兴趣,无非是想用小钱来赚大钱。Investalks有个帖子卧虎藏龙。我都是从那边偷师的。投机Call Warrant。那里的高手厉害到~~五体投地!

上2篇 Call Warrant 认购凭单基本研究讲了一些很浅白的研究。第一篇 和 第二篇 。现在来看看如果买进了到价的CW,应该赚了就卖还是hold到expiry date?

HLBANK-CF:Exercise Price: RM12.30
Ratio: 10
HLBANK @ 21-12-2012: RM 14.78
CW Price: 0.255


如果买进1000 lots CW,本钱25.5K。那么假设母股涨到16.00. 就是说涨了1.22. 那么照理CW就应该涨0.122 (Ratio是10).

第一:赚价差CW照理会来到0.375-0.380的价钱。那么这时的CW值37.5K。卖掉的话直接赚到头脑发昏。

第二:Hold到期限。

那么银行会给你的钱就是:

100000*1/10*(16-12.30)= 37K

结果当然是差不多的。不过个人觉得Hold到期会比较不值得:

第一:如果不到价,CW价值是0. 那么还是干脆卖了吧。几十几百块总好过亏完100%。

第二:如果到价,有些Investment Bank会完最后几天来个压价的。DRBHCOM之前就是例子。最后一天最后15分钟压价。投资者有苦说不清。

第三:Hold到期限,还要等一段时间银行才会给你钱。钱就lock在那边了。钱有时间价值,lock住的时候什么都做不了,又没有利息,吃力不讨好。

所以给我也是赚了差价就走。不会抱到期限的。这样做钱被锁住,而且万一发生什么事情就糟糕了。投资投机都好,还是保本为上。赚了就卖,入袋为安!

Friday, 21 December 2012

Call Warrant 认购凭单基本研究 (2)

Call Warrant 如果在到期时母股的价钱还没有达到Exercise Price,那么CW就是一文不值的东西。这叫做不到价。

对于到价的CW来说,结算的时候都是用Cash的。比如HLBANK-CE:

Exercise Price: RM10.18
Ratio: 10
Maturity Date: 31-12-2012
HLBANK @ 20-12-2012: RM 14.76

现在HLBANK-CE的价钱是每股0.445. 假设一个人买进1000股。那么花费RM445.

那个人hold到期限完为止。那么假设母股闭市价是14.76. 那么他可以得到的是:

1000*1/10*(14.76-10.18) = 458.

也就是说赚了。(没有算水钱)

Premium:溢价。就是说如果你购买凭单不买母股需要付出多/少多少钱。

HLBANK-CE Premium:

(0.445*10+10.18-14.76)/14.76= -0.88%

要X10是因为10个CW才等于1个母股。Premium 是负数代表这个CW被低估了,可以买。所以今天CW的Buyer价钱不是0.445,而是0.455. 要不然给你捡便宜?

再来看HLBANK-CG:

Exercise Price: RM14.30
Ratio: 10
Maturity Date: 31-12-2012
HLBANK @ 20-12-2012: RM 14.76
CW Price: 0.15

Premium = (0.15*10+14.30-14.76)/14.76*100% = 7%

这就是说买HLBANK-CG要付出更高的代价。这是很常见的。

杠杆 Gearing:很简单。就是用母股价/凭单价。但是因为CW引进了Ratio,就是说1凭单不相等于1母股。如果Ratio是10, 10个CW才相等1母股。

Gearing=Mother Share Price / (CW Price X Ratio)

最基本的就是这些了。

Wednesday, 19 December 2012

Call Warrant 认购凭单基本研究 (1)

最近想开始研究下Call Warrant。未来有打算把资金的10-20%拿来买CW。这次不会像上次这样随便乱买了。上次那个,我的第一个CW,meng cha cha的排队结果就中了。结果就在一个星期里面亏了14%,还好只占了资金的小部分。我不会让这种情况继续发生。

Call Warrant是由投资银行发出的凭单。最长见的都是由Maybank,CIMB,OSK等发出,让投资者购买。当然,由什么银行发行,那个银行就理所当然的成了该CW的主力。


在大马交易所里,CW的凭单都是用母股名字-CX来代表的。X可以是A-Z的任何字幕。比如AIRASIA-CW是由CIMB发型的。已经来到W,就表示这已经是AIRASIA的第23个CW了。这些都只是名字而已,没什么关系的。想当初看到交易平台看到这些东西都不知道什么来的。

CW的特点:
  • 有效期通常都是一年。
  • 大马的CW通常都是European Style。也就是说在期限结束后才可以转换。相反的,American Style 是期限之内随时可以转换的。
  • Exercise Price:转换价。只有母股超过这个价钱凭单才有价值。要不然凭单的价值理论上是0. 以AIRASIA-CW来说,exercise price是3.40. 但是现在母股的价钱才2.60. 所以AIRASIA-CW应该是一文不值的。如果在到期前母股还没有回到3.40以上,那么CW的价钱肯定是0.005. 持有的人就是等于持有一张废纸。注:现在AIRASIA-CW的价钱是0.010.
  • Exercise Ratio:Exercise ratio 如果是 2,那么理论上母股:凭单的升跌就是2:1的幅度。比如母股上升0.20,那么凭单应该会上升0.10. 这个Exercise ratio当然越小越好。很多大象股的exercise ratio都是比较高的,比如8或者10.

下次再讲讲Gearing,Premium等比较深入的东西。