Showing posts with label Bursa Malaysia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bursa Malaysia. Show all posts

Sunday, 2 August 2015

KL: KLCI technical analysis

KLCI is really weak recently. Trying to earn money from KLCI lately has been challenging. Regardless of what shares you are trading, the index is still the most important benchmark in KLSE as it determines the general trend of the market. How is it doing? Let's examine this from the monthly, weekly and daily charts.

1. Monthly chart:

KLCI monthly chart

Monthly chart does not look good. MACD and stochastic are heading negative. The last candle, July 2015, was primarily due to the last trading day where KLCI was pulled up by 23 points. Was this a sign just to draw a "nice" chart or is it that KLCI is ready to go? It has 3 black candles followed by one white candle where similar trends have been observed in 2008 and 2011. While 2008 was a real bear, 2011 was an adjustment. Which way will it go this time?  Only time can tell. 

2. Weekly chart:

KLCI weekly chart

Weekly chart looks a bit nicer. The chart looks like forming a double bottom. All MACD, RSI and stochastic seems to recover from the bottom. However, no sign of strength was observed.

3. Daily chart:


Daily chart cannot tell much. Chart shows KLCI seems to have "triple bottom" recently. MACD, RSI and stochastic are heading positive, but the trend in daily chart can change very abruptly.

A lot of rumours say that if the PM were to step down, it will lead to political instability and chaos (as in the stock market) would ensue. I couldn't be bother about this factor. Partly because I don't think he will step down; and partly also because who knows which way will the stock market go if he really steps down?

While a number of investors do not look good on the current market, I still yet to spot a "madness" in the stock market. After all, standing at 1723 is less than a 10% drop from the peak of 1890+. Is that really bad? But perhaps the drop occurs successively due to the involatility of the KLCI, it felt as if the drop has been long and significant. My view is that while bear has not yet formed, the chance of "final bull" remains unclear. The way to deal with this is as always: prudent investment involving good fundamental stock.

Tuesday, 21 July 2015

KL: Call warrant analysis

Recently, MYEG touched a low of RM 2.40 on 16-6-2015 and a high of RM 3.03 on 2-7-2015 in 2 weeks time, equivalent to a ~26% return. If you leverage your capital by trading call warrants instead of the mother share, what would be your return then?

MYEG trend


Call warrant^ Low High Return
MYEG-CD* 0.340 0.480 41.2%
MYEG-CG* 0.190 0.325 71.1%
MYEG-CH 0.185 0.320 73.0%
MYEG-CI* 0.030 0.105 250%
MYEG-CJ 0.080 0.200 150%
MYEG-CK 0.060 0.145 142%
MYEG-CL 0.075 0.160 113%

* MYEG-CD,CG and CI expire on July, September and August 2015 respectively.
^ MYEG-CM was issued after 16-6-2015 and hence it was not included here.

The above table summarizes the return for MYEG call warrants. Based on How to choose a call warrant, the first priority is that the mother share must possess strong fundamental. For this criterion, MYEG is a no-brainer.

Next, look for the maturity date. This means that CD, CG and CI will be out of my sight. While CI secured the highest return in 2 weeks time, this is not a risk that I would take.

Then, look for the premium, gearing and volume. CH was good back then, but its gearing is comparatively low now, meaning a lower risk and lower return/loss. For a higher gearing, both CJ and CK are satisfying all criteria. As CJ has a lower exercise price and a lower conversion ratio, if I were to trade, CJ will be my pick. It turned out that CJ is indeed the best choice. It wouldn't be too hard to choose a call warrant in this way.

Another handy information is that we can actually know how much these call warrants were held by the issuer at the end of each month. If you go to Bursa Malaysia website > Listed companies > structured warrants. In the announcement category choose "Issuers' announcement", you will see this type of announcement:

ANNOUNCEMENT PURSUANT TO PARAGRAPH 5.35(4) AND 5.35(5) OF THE MAIN MARKET LISTING REQUIREMENTS OF BURSA MALAYSIA SECURITIES BERHAD

RHB

You will see that for MYEG-CJ, 64.68% of warrants are not held by the bank, i.e., a huge portion of warrants are held by other people. It may be big fish or retail investors. Either way, when the bank is no longer the market maker, the buy/sell queue volume will be low (e.g., from 5000 lots per bid to 1000 per bid) and this provides another criteria to choosing a call warrant.

While call warrant could bring you high returns in short time, it is a double-edged sword product. It can accelerate your capital growth or completely ruin your financial dream. My principle is to only trade call warrants with strong fundamentals mother share. INARI is an example, MYEG is another. Call warrant for shares like KNM, no matter how attractive they are, will be completely blind to me.

Thursday, 10 July 2014

KLSE: CSL chart says it all

Few months ago I wrote something about is low PE shares attractive?

Interestingly, I mentioned CSL in that post. At that time (Jan 2014), it was traded at about RM 0.80.

Today, this share is traded at about RM 0.10. A picture says a thousand words: CSL weekly chart.



You know what happen by looking at the announcement. I am not going to say much about this.

Sunday, 1 June 2014

US markets hit record high (consistently?)

I wonder how 1 month can fly in a blink of eye -- I didn't notice this at all until I checked my last post. I was just too obsessed with my stuffs, and I realized I shouldn't.

Now, US markets closed at new high is not new anymore. Let's have some statistics.

Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJIA):
 31 Dec 2013: Record high close of 16576, see related news 
 4   Apr 2014: Hit an intraday historical high of 16631, see here
 30 Apr 2014: Closed at record high, at 16580
 9  May 2014: Close of 16,583.34 narrowly topped the previous record, less than 2 weeks ago
12 May 2014: Continues from last Friday, closed at historical high again, at 16695
13 May 2014: Continued the rally, closed above 16700 for the first time, at 16715
30 May 2014: Another record high, 16717, see related news

S&P 500 is another key index in US markets, have a similar trend too. closed at 1923 last Friday, a fresh record in the history, see Wall Street Journal.

How about NASDAQ? Nasdaq closed at 14-year high of 4357 at 5 Mar 2014. Media cannot use a record high for NASDAQ, because its record high was set in 2000 during the dot.com bubble, where NASDAQ soared above 5000 before collapsing. Is NASDAQ actually heading to another rally?

Now, how about Bursa Malaysia? It remains as boring as it can be, as usual. Bursa also closed at a record high of 1887 on 19 May 2014. A 1900 seems to be so close, and so far. Will Bursa breaks the history as well? If it really does, I hope it comes with volume.

Friday, 24 January 2014

Is low PE shares attractive?

In the stock market you must have some principles that can never be violated. e.g. never buy PN17 company, some people never touch technology shares, some people never touch shares with price < RM 0.10 etc. I have my own too, I will never touch a category of stocks. The table below says enough:


China stock in Malaysia


Look at XINQUAN, an earning of 30 cent ++ per year, but only traded at about RM 1? If this happens to only 1 share, then a closer look is required, perhaps it is really undervalued? But with so many "similar" stocks together, I doubt if they are undervalued.

Look at XDL recently:



3 months + of accumulation and selling. After profit is secured, all shares are thrown without any hesitation. With this kind of volume, I believe there is no way this share can go up to RM 0.60 again, at least for few years. (although with an EPS of 11 cent). The company did make an announcement regarding this: price movementBelieve it or not is up to you.

Another example: CSL, a not-long-ago listed on Bursa stock, doing stationery.

CSL

It was first listed nearly 2 years ago, with an IPO price of RM 0.95. It went up to RM 1.80 within 2 months, can be easily seen in top volume at that time. People will easily get into the trap, because people cannot tahan (cannot see) seeing a share keep on increasing. Then what after that? The price keep on dropping until now, to RM 0.80!

I touched once before during my 1st year in stock market.. It cost me 40%+ of loss in 8 months, I am lucky that I cut lost at that time, a wise move even if I look back now. This is a priceless experience, preventing me from further losses in stock market.

Bursa Malaysia investors, open up your wise eyes when choosing company.

Saturday, 28 December 2013

KLSE: HIBISCUS "cannon after horse"

This is a 马后炮 analysis of HIBISCUS, i.e. analyze only after the fact has happened.

Share price started moving since 6/12/2013, and the 4th big candle was on 13/2/2013. No announcement yet. But good outcome of Block 50 Oman Drilling was speculated, which is why the share price has gone up from ~RM2.10 to ~RM2.70, nearly 30% in just one week.


HIBISCUS



With no drilling results announced and this kind of share price movement + volume, I have thought the same -- good news from the oil drilling project. 


Following that, 2 black candles are drawn on the daily graph, 16 and 17 Dec 2013, with low volume. This would be a normal "washing" process, from my experience. I wouldn't even mind if I hold the share.

What is really scary is the 3 big black candles after that, accompanied by huge volume and big drop.Yet, no news were announced on these date -- 18, 19 and 20 Dec 2013.

Then, on 23rd, the company requested for suspension of trading.That's it. A request for suspension of trading, in Bursa Malaysia, if the day before the price is a big drop, then it just mean that the news to be announced are bad news. As simple as that.

Even worse, on 24th, a further suspension was requested.

On the same day, the results was announced.


On 26th, open low + top volume stock. That's it. 


Personally, I do not believe this is part of the washing process, to use a failure in oil exploration to wash out retail investors. What I look at this is that the "big fish" is far more aggressive than I thought -- already know the drilling results before 23rd, for sure, then goreng up the stock 3 weeks before that: 1 week goreng up + selling, 1 week kept selling (hence big drop), the last week announced results.

After all, I wouldn't touch this stock.

Sunday, 25 August 2013

KLCI 技术图

一个图:


综指跳空低开,绝非好事。情况还真罕见。5月6高开,缺口从来没有回补。结果缺口真的不用补,因为蜡烛直接开在下面了,什么?

KLCI Gap



看来KLCI不了多久了。当然崩盘也不是立刻的。有预兆的崩盘还叫崩盘吗?要来的时候就突然跟你来,连逃的地方都没有。还是谨慎为上。

顺便一提,马股有个HA,HB,HC...的东西,put warrant,call warrant相反,股市的。之前凭单都是AMBANK,对付,容易赚钱。有空研究最近有没有其他银行put warrant

Thursday, 22 August 2013

研究 MAYBULK Call Warrant

今天股市大跌开市,一开始就是 -17点。过后1小时里面 -25,过后又变成 -15,让人以为 KLCI 的奇迹又将再次发生。结果今天不一样了。过后继续跌。


今天追踪了 MAYBULK-CI 的 buyer 和 seller,看看庄是怎么交易 call warrant 的。

来点基本资料, 看 Bursa Malaysia

MAYBULK-CI:

发行商:OSK
股数: 50 M

发行日:7-12-2012
到期日:6-12-2013

Exercise price: 1.30
Conversion ratio: 2:1

21-8-2013 闭市价:0.235
21-8-2013 母股:1.75

Premium = 0.235*2 + 1.30 - 1.75 / 1.75 = 1.1%

这是 MAYBULK 最能交易的 CW,原因很简单:成交量最大,premium 低,买卖价差不大,不会贵。可惜的是到期日只有3个月。

今天看着股价变动,看着 CW 买卖价钱变动,发觉原来 CW 买卖价钱完全跟着母股买卖的。价钱?当然庄家了。相信电脑 set  formula,母股买卖价钱什么,CW 买卖什么价钱。今天的 buyer 排队都是 3000 lot 排,都是 1000 lot 卖。只有发行商那么而已。


接下来就是这样子排法:

             BUY QTY       BUY      SELL      SELL QTY

MAYBULK                   1.76      1.77
MAYBULK-CI    3000        0.235     0.240        1000

MAYBULK                   1.75      1.76
MAYBULK-CI    3000        0.230     0.240        1000

MAYBULK                   1.77      1.78
MAYBULK-CI    3000        0.240     0.245        1000

MAYBULK                   1.74      1.75
MAYBULK-CI    3000        0.225     0.235        1000

MAYBULK                   1.73      1.75
MAYBULK-CI    3000        0.220     0.235        1000

MAYBULK                   1.73      1.74
MAYBULK-CI    3000        0.220     0.230        1000


基本上就是母股 buyer price 一变动,下 1 cent,CW buyer price立刻下调0.005.立刻,自动。明显就是电脑操纵。

其实庄家价钱不差。比如母股 buyer 1.75 时候,CW 0.230 价。买到折合母股是 1.76,有点亏本。当然,相信电脑程序随着情况调动 formula。

不会糟糕。OSK 的 Call warrant有做功课,是可以交易的。


Friday, 12 July 2013

EASTLND 炒股 -- 看庄表演

续 HARVEST 和 NICORP 炒风后,最新的连续剧是由 EASTLND 担任主角。传闻有人要收购这公司。新闻请看这里:谋划收购一上市公司


这种炒股没有兴趣。这个主要看看把戏怎么玩法。看看下图trade details。



EASTLND Trade details



11 a.m. 过后极速拉抬,只有筹码高度集中可以做到事情。这种情况下,普通散户如果看盘,容易进去。结果只有几种:

1. 开始注意进去。10分钟10% 不是问题。但是这种玩法必须盯盘!必须非常严格执行目标价,比如了 0.90 肯定卖。要不然看到 0.900 来到 0.915 不卖话,盈利容易蒸发。适合这种了,因为看到这种拉抬不肯放手的。结果就是完蛋。

2. 拉抬到 (0.85)一半进去,太迟了。已经了。

3. 拉倒 (0.90)进去。结果拉抬完毕(时候当然知道已经完毕),结果立刻中套。

再者,拉抬时间太快,散户是反应不过来的。


这种炒股,看看 trade detail 拿经验就好。看看庄怎么表演。

结论是,无论哪种玩法很大机会中套。

结论是,股,不能动!这种不是我们的,炒。

结论是,这种直接透明的。就算真的干净。

最重要的结论:基本面好股!

Wednesday, 10 July 2013

AIRASIA 认购凭单调整详解

今天亚航 X 上市,我还特地早上开着电脑等开始。哪里知道 tony 的钱真的不是那么容易赚的。 1.26 开市,成交量第一,1.25 闭市。一点 "kang tou" 都没有得捡。sien 掉。IPO 抽中的也什么甜头都没有。根本就没有gap up。


我也顺便把 call warrant 放了。AIRASIA-CY。不敢收太久。还有3个月到期,AIRASIA 走势图其实不错,只是我不想再抱票了,怕死 kiasi


AIRASIA-CY

AIRASIA 的凭单也不少。选AIRASIA-CY就只因为成交量。那么多孩子,只有这个最有交易。溢价也不高,所以就买进了。这是第二次买入 call warrant,第一个是去年交易的,MUDAJYA-CH -- 这里。1星期亏损接近15%。

AIRASIA-CY 曾经因为AIRASIA的特别股息也调整exercise price 和 conversion ratio。本来是这样的:


Exercise Price = RM 2.85
Conversion Ratio = 4:1

因为特别股息,调整详情可以看 Bursa Malaysia AIRASIA-CY


Adjustment Factor ("AF") = (P – D) / (P) 

P exdate 闭市价。D dividend (RM 0.18)。这里 exdate 是 3月11日。那么P 就是 3月10闭市RM 3.00. 那么 AF 就是 0.94.

的 exercise price 就是AF = 2.85*0.94 = RM 2.679
 
Exercise Ratio 就是 1/AF * Exercise ratio = 1/0.94 * 1/4 = 0.26598,就是3.76:1


我买的时候 AIRASIA 母股 3.03, 算到来溢价是:

0.115*3.76 + 2.679 - 3.03 = 2.7%

不会高。gearing ratio 是 3.03/(0.115*3.76) = 7。

这一次做得不错。买得不多,这种东西,慢慢的。掌握到技巧了,以后自然可以找到机会交易。


Tuesday, 9 July 2013

INARI 申请转主板

INARI 上个星期五申请星期一暂停交易上半场。消息出来后,原来是换名跟申请转主板。这种上升趋势中暂停交易的股,通常都是好事来的。详情看大马交易所 Bursa Malaysia Announcement: Bursa Malaysia


消息出来后,人家都会买。昨天2:30分开市之前我有想过冲进去买。可是最后还是下不了手。因为知道消息出来后都不可以再追,已经太迟了!决定不进场。结果下半场开市 0.770 闭市 0.730. 进去的话立刻中套。本来有货在手的加码还无所谓,我这种进去的就等着做水鱼。

这股让我心痛了很久。是我太早套利的股。看回去这里:记录INARI操作

算了,已经错过了就算了。往前看。

明天亚航X上市。今晚美国脸色,明天过!

Thursday, 27 June 2013

MAEMORE 被列入PN 17

在 财报出不来 神仙都救不活 里有讲述关于 PATIMAS 被打入冷宫的记录。现在又有一间中招了。

看一个图:



MAEMODE PN17
MAEMODE PN17


这种跳空低开的股票,肯定是有坏消息的。看 Bursa 公告,才知道原来已经被列入 PN17 公司了。看这里:Bursa Malaysia MAEMODE

下场好惨。这种爆量下跌的通常是完蛋了的。

看了我的资料库,这股竟然是属于不错的。原因是 Low PE,赚钱(最近2个季度开始亏钱)再加上每年有股息。这种公司原来也可以出问题。因为财务报告上有很多资料,我并没有去看。

这个故事告诉我们买股真的要选好股。买到这种的真的是血本无归。如果单单看中PE低+股息,就中招了。

鸟样股票 分析财务问题。原来债务太高了,利息公司盈利,怎么存活?

投资,真的要懂得选公司。