Showing posts with label AAPL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AAPL. Show all posts

Sunday, 1 February 2015

NASDAQ: Is Apple expensive?

When Iphone 5s/5c was released in 2H 2013, I thought that the sales would go down as there wasn't any  "jaw-dropping" innovative features. The market proves me wrong.

In 2014, 169.22M of Iphone was sold as compared to 150.25M in 2013, a 12.6% increase, according to the global Apple Iphone sales. Note that Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has a financial year ends 27 Sep, such that the sales of Iphone from Oct-Dec 2013 will be reflected in Q1 2014. In fact, the sales is breaking record quarter-to-quarter if compared with the preceding year. I was terribly wrong about the trend.

So I observe the way how Apple fans stick to Apple products:  the joy and excitement of having it, the honour of using it, the sense of playing with it and the pride of owning Apple products. Last year, Iphone 6/6+ was released. While the most prominent difference with previous releases is a larger screen, which has no surprise, this time I stand on a view that Iphone 6 will create a record sales as well.

On 27 Jan, AAPL released its latest financial quarter report. 74.5M of Iphone sold in Q1 2015 as compared to 51M in Q1 2014. This is an incredible result. A record EPS of 3.06 with record profit.  2014 full year EPS of $7.36, with a current price of $117.16, this is equivalent to a PE of 15.9.

Now, the question is, is AAPL expensive? Let's look at some technology stocks:

Name    Stock Code    PE
Google    GOOL       28.1
Facebook  FB         69.13
Avago     AVGO       104.13
Amazon    AMZN       Negative EPS, Stock price stood at $354.53!

You can see how "insane" is US market. A stock trading at PE 100 is not unusual. Is AAPL really expensive at a price of $117.16? Of course, I am not suggesting to buy with expectation of AAPL to reach a PE of 100, but if you are confident that AAPL will still grow, then it may look attractive at the current price.

In 2012, my lecturer once said something wise:

20 years ago you can eat apple. But can you eat Apple now?

20 years ago, nobody will ever think that Apple is inedible. Nowadays, when the very same noun is being mentioned, how often it means Apple, and how often will people will think of apple? The answer is obvious, isn't it?

Wednesday, 7 August 2013

NYSE: Options 基本研究


Options,中文选择权。东西2学过。过后不了了之。最近大马货币实在担心。继续存在马币,到时候1nasi lemak,的,RM 1那种,不要RM 10 那么难听,RM 5不知道得到吗?

选择权,或者期权,就是可以选择的。可以选择买卖。这里来个最简单的介绍。选择权可以买可以卖。就是说你可以做散户,也可以做庄家。Call warrant你只可以买而已,卖的call warrant的人都是银行来的,银行做庄。

Options 这种金融衍生产品当然是美国开始的。美国最厉害这种东西了。Options 分 call 和 put。和马股的 call 和 put warrant意思一样。买call就是看涨,买put就是看跌。你可以 buy call/buy put/sell call/sell put,任你玩。

在马来西亚买家卖家叫 buy sell。在美国叫 bid ask。我还是喜欢马来西亚的叫法。

来个超级菜鸟的 sell option 虚拟交易:

sell put option AAPL

2013年8月1日我sell AAPL 的put option。AAPL,大家都知道的APPLE,在美国NASDAQ交易。卖价0.72.Strike price (exercise price)是 USD 450. 

这种情况,就如call warrant,会有2个case:

1.options到期前,AAPl股价跌过 450
那么put option buyer可以用跌过450的股价买股票(i.e. market price at that time),然后用450的价钱卖给我。

2.到期时股价超过 450,那么options buyer不会exercise 那个options,所以我所卖掉的 premium就是白赚。

图中的options到期日是8月2日。当天AAPl闭市462.见 YAHOO Finance

超过我的strike price。所以我卖掉option的钱是白赚的。当然,系统会自动帮我close position(buy to close)。