Sunday, 17 January 2016

A(nother) market turmoil

Recently, another market turmoil has emerged. Major overseas market are having big drops. Well, except KLSE.

This time, apparently sparked by a plunge in crude oil price and fears about Chinese economy growth, has the overseas stock market to drop 2-3%, literally every second day. Chinese economy growth problem? Really?

Brent crude oil: Looking back only to realise that oil really start to drop since 2H 2014. And it drop really quickly. I thought it would stop at around USD 40/barrel, but the market always surprises you. I has now come down to below USD 30/barrel. The financial market is interesting: the crude oil price has rarely gained any considerable attention in the past, and it is now ubiquitous on the media.

(Print-screened from Bloomberg)

NASDAQ: I have a dream of NASDAQ to shot up to 10000 points in coming years for another round of technology bubble. But it now looks like an impossible task?


(Print-screened from Indexq.org)

DAX is literally dropping 2-3%+ every second day for the past week!


NIKKEI is literally dropping every second day too.


On the other hand, KLSE is like a heaven, completely oblivious to what is happening globally. Magic always happens in Malaysia, going along with the phrase "Malaysia Boleh".

KLSE

The last "noticeable" adjustment occurred in Aug 2015, coming with no signal (at all). In less than six months, another round is coming. Frankly, no one can stand seeing stocks dropping to such an extent every second day, let alone that the bearish market has yet to be confirmed.

I am wondering, the market hasn't even drop for 20% and the market sentiment is already so negative, what if something worse is yet to come?

I would like to see if this would turn out to be another adjustment.

Sunday, 10 January 2016

2015 Review

Generally,

1. 2015 signals the rise of put warrants in KLSE, which is something that I did not touch at all in 2015, which turned out to be a correct decision: when something seems so hot in the market and everybody is trying to make a slice from it, the wise action to do is to stay away from it.

2. 2015 also sees the birth of CHINA-A50 call and put warrants. Catching a correct trend could easily secure a profit of 20% in a week (and vice versa). I played once and that's it. China stock market is comparatively volatile and these structure warrants aren't meant to hold long.

3. 2015 is the year of export counters due to an abrupt depreciation of MYR. Glove stocks are the dominant players. Unfortunately I did not catch any of them.

About myself:

1. Dividend sums up to be RM 1338.19 -- not a big amount, really, but it is a bonus for me.

2. The number of trade I have transacted is close to the sum of 2011-2014, i.e., unbelievably high. Some are really good decisions, but followed by other bad decisions not long after. Still, I need to learn to hold cash without "feeling itchy on my hand".

3. I bought some CWs that if I continue holding I would have secure a huge profit. But there is no such thing anyway.

Using busyness as an excuse, I buy shares purely based on suggestions on the Internet. This is nothing to be proud of, but this is what I have done for the past year. Although quite a number of mistakes have been made, the overall return is satisfactory. Perhaps later this year I would have time to start making my own study on the market.

I set a high aim for 2016, hopefully to achieve it by the end of the year.