Saturday, 23 May 2015

KLSE: VSOLAR-WA with a negative premium that is too good to be true

Is a warrant trading at a premium of -25% sounds too good to be true? It probably is.

VSOLAR-WA was trading at a premium of -25%. This implies that one could earn 25% by simply buying the warrant and converting it to the mother share, with the condition that the mother share price remains unchanged. A few years in KLSE, I can still see new things by now, how exciting is the stock market?

How can I come to know this stock? Well it occupied a conspicuous spot in the trading platform -- most actively traded counter. While a negative premium is certainly "attractive", let's have a glance at its financial summary first:

VSOLAR financial summary
Financial summary for VSOLAR (Source: Malaysiastock.biz)

As you can see, this company has no fundamental and it is not making any profit. The table below details the price of both VSOLAR and VSOLAR-WA with its premium, and how the negative premium "quickly vanished", turning into positive premium. (Historical price obtained from KLSE.my)

Date VSOLAR VSOLAR-WA Premium
22-4-2015 0.380 0.165 -25.0%
23-4-2015 0.340 0.150 -20.6%
24-4-2015 0.360 0.145 -26.3%
27-4-2015 0.305 0.140 -13.1%
28-4-2015 0.250 0.110 -8.0%
29-4-2015 0.255 0.115 -7.8%
30-4-2015 0.255 0.110 -9.8%
5-5-2015 0.260 0.110 -11.5%
6-5-2015 0.210 0.090 0%
7-5-2015 0.205 0.085 0%
8-5-2015 0.210 0.080 -4.8%
11-5-2015 0.170 0.070 11.8%
12-5-2015 0.155 0.065 19.4%
13-5-2015 0.155 0.075 25.8%
14-5-2015 0.155 0.070 22.6%
15-5-2015 0.145 0.070 31.0%

What is left now? Nothing. If there is no improvement in the fundamental of this company, I do not think the price will go up in the "foreseeable future".

You may want to ask: why does this happen? The big fish wanted to sell the shares. Making the warrant to have a negative premium is very easy to attract people to buy, because everyone is hoping that the warrant will "catch up" with the mother share to its reasonable price. Obviously the opposite happened in this case.

While everything written here is in hindsight, I did not touch this stock though. The purpose of writing this is to alert fellow investors and not to fall into this trap in the future.

Saturday, 16 May 2015

NYSE & NASDAQ: what are GAAP and non-GAAP profits?

As a newbie in the US stock market, a first sight at a financial report will often baffle at "GAAP profit" and "non-GAAP profit". What are they?

To start with, Yahoo finance offers a very convenient avenue of looking at the earning release of listed companies in the US. The date and time of the release of the fiscal report are clearly stated (as opposed to KLSE in which you really don't know when will it be released but within 2 months from the quarter end).

For example, this is the Q1 earning of TESLA (NASDAQ: TSLA). 8-K form is the name of form that contains financial results.

TESLA 2015 Q1 Earnings

GAAP stands for Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. It is the standard norms of how companies should present their earnings in NYSE and NASDAQ. In a simple way, what we see on the balance sheet is based on the GAAP profit, i.e. the common way of reporting profit.

However, a company may write-down an asset or restructure its organisation. These actions usually come with large one-time cost that may not be truly reflected in the GAAP profit. As such, a company will also provide “adjusted” earning figures that excludes these nonrecurring items. These effect, usually is one-off, will be regarded in the non-GAAP profit. And because of this, I personally think that it will more accurately reflects the company's performance.

The balance sheet of TESLA:



We see that a GAAP net loss -$ 154 M or $-1.22/share was incurred according to the conventional way of account reporting. After considering compensation expense, non-cash interest expense and deferred profit, its actual net loss is only -$ 45 M or $ 0.36/share, which is significantly less than the GAAP standard way of reporting.

The above exemplifies the use of non-GAAP reporting to account for a more accurate earning which truly reflects the company's performance. There are good and bad with both measures of reporting in the sense that the report could be manipulated to favour the desired outcome. Which one to look at is then completely up to your discretion.

Friday, 8 May 2015

KLSE: INARI-CA, a "successful" trade

Following the recent failed short term trade, maybe I should also write some "successful" transactions.

If AWC made myself stumbling, then INARI-CA could at least offer me some condolences. It was the "secret weapon" that I bet on for the recovery of my capital since Oct 2014. Never happen before that I will buy call warrant "in quantity", after realizing how much opportunity I have lost since then.

At first I was really reluctant to sell -- want to earn more. But the imminent expiry date (the last trading day was 30 Apr 2015) makes me worried and decided to sell a few weeks before expiry. In the end INARI-CA expired at RM 0.090. I cannot imagine the "what if"? Glad that I have overcome my own "mental blockage" to sell a share.

Perhaps SHH can give me another comfort, that I am actually learning to sell a share at good timing. It is trading at about RM 1.20 at the moment. Again, what if?

What if it soars after selling? Let it be. Maybe I buy another share that has better return?
What if it drops after selling? Then no worries.

Monday, 4 May 2015

KLSE: A failed short term trade in AWC

AWC is definitely a failed short term trade. I could have earned a profit of 10% in 2 days, but at the end of the day I ended up losing 10%.

This time, not only my entry price is beautiful, my timing is perfect too.

AWC


I did set a target at the time of buying, i.e. 10% short term trading. This implies a target price of RM 0.490-0.495. The target price is achieved after 2 trading days, I did not sell. A target without strict execution is useless.

Greed has crept in my mind and I "suddenly" decided to increase my target price. While I keep on reminding myself to not make the same mistake, greed has also buried my previous experience.


I do not know what to say, but hoping that I could at least take this lesson seriously.