Saturday, 28 June 2014

KLSE: the so-called one-lot-transaction (一阳指)

In share trading it is not uncommon to see a 1-lot transaction being made. It creates interests because in some cases, a 1-lot match would result in a 10% brokerage fee of the total amount traded, or even much higher.

Yesterday, I have this experience:


SHH transaction

Match amount = RM 94. Brokerage about RM 10+. Brokerage fee = 10%+. This mean that I must have a 10% gain in this share just to make it break even. 

Looking at the queue, the best sell price is 0.985.


SHH queue


The seller intention is apparently obvious: hoping the buyer to increase the buy price to buy at seller's price. As a retail investor, some people would do that because even if they buy more, the brokerage charge remains relatively the same for a trade amount of up to RM 1k. So why not buy more? But then you have to pay a higher price, which is the pitfall set by the seller.

But I am not going to do so. The first reason is because I already have some shares on hand, so that I can sell them all together. Secondly, I am not comfortable to buy at this seller's price, so not falling into the trap. Kind of self-comfort, isn't it?

Saturday, 14 June 2014

NYSE: AMD analysis

AMD shares closed with 2 white candles with relatively high volume on 10 and 11 June. On these two days, there is no apparent reasons why the shares moved with volume. One day later, the news revealed.

Headline: AMD reorganizes (MarketWatch) which states the plan of the company to consolidate some of its business segments and appointed a new chief operating officer. Another news concerns about its rival, Intel (INTC) which loses appeal against record $1.43 billion EU fine (MarketWatch). I think AMD didn't earn any money from this, but morally, is a good news that push AMD share.

On 12 June, the share opened higher @ 4.33, trading high @ 4.44, but closed @ 4.29. A newbie technical chart:


The share has just broken its upper Bollinger Band (BB), with volume. This is a good sign for the share price. A black candle on 12 Jun, could it be a "washing" process? Not sure, still fumbling in US markets. Let's see what happens in the next few weeks.

Back in 2006, AMD bought over ATI (Engadget), a big move by the company at that time. Since then, the company has shaped its future direction, to combine a CPU with graphics technology into one single chip, known as APU (Accelerated Processing Unit). I like this idea. By now, more and more APUs are being installed on laptops, easily observed when you walk into a computer shop. In gaming console areas, XBox One is using AMD APUs too. You can find chips made by AMD in personal computers, tablets, game consoles and cloud servers as well.


If the direction of APU is right, it could be very rewarding in years to come. 

Monday, 9 June 2014

A brief review: when to sell a share?

Selling a share is a tough decision for me. When I intended to sell a share:
- for which that have an unrealized gain, it is as if I am cutting my limbs.
- for which that have an unrealized loss, it is as if prohibiting the loss to turn into victory.

Perhaps I hang on to these things too long, with too much emotions.

SBCCORP is a typical example:

Bought in Dec 2012 @ 1.04 (before right issue)
Went up to 1.18 at 17 Jan 2013 (before right issue)
An unrealized gain of 4 figures within 1 month. Yet I hang on there, wanting more gain. (I mentioned this before 2013 Q1 Review)
Finally sold @ 1.01 at Feb 2013.

Looking back, I realize two things, that:
I sold it too late, that only took action after it fell from peak price.
I sold it too soon, that I didn't continue holding or the share would have doubled its price in a few months time.

Why would I mention something 1.5 years ago? Because I found that I didn't learn from that experience at all. That I went through the same thing again: 

CHHB:

Bought in Mar 2014 @ 1.48
Went up to 1.61 at 21 Apr 2014
A 9% gain within 1 month. Yet I continue to hold, not even think of taking profit.
Worse comes to worst: top up @ 1.55 Top up CHHB
Current price @ 1.45

Yet I am still holding the share, get nothing for almost 3 months.

Yes I bought both of these shares at a pretty "decent" price. But buying at a low price alone does not guarantee profit. It must be paired with a good timing of selling to maximize profit. 

I keep repeating the same pattern: holding, telling myself that the share is going to move very soon. But as one day turned to two and two days turned to weeks or even months, at the end of the day the opportunity cost that I may have lost may cost me a lot in the waiting. Until the share did move, months would have passed, and by then I would long for an even higher return, which in turn results in not selling AGAIN, which traps myself in this circle eventually.

So how to sell a share? JUST SELL IT when volume comes! If not willing to sell or, then at least take partial profit. Look at these two example, if I sell them when it shot up, the waiting period is within 1 month, and yet I secured profits. Remember: Profit in the account is still the best, not the unrealized profit in the portfolio.

Sunday, 1 June 2014

US markets hit record high (consistently?)

I wonder how 1 month can fly in a blink of eye -- I didn't notice this at all until I checked my last post. I was just too obsessed with my stuffs, and I realized I shouldn't.

Now, US markets closed at new high is not new anymore. Let's have some statistics.

Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJIA):
 31 Dec 2013: Record high close of 16576, see related news 
 4   Apr 2014: Hit an intraday historical high of 16631, see here
 30 Apr 2014: Closed at record high, at 16580
 9  May 2014: Close of 16,583.34 narrowly topped the previous record, less than 2 weeks ago
12 May 2014: Continues from last Friday, closed at historical high again, at 16695
13 May 2014: Continued the rally, closed above 16700 for the first time, at 16715
30 May 2014: Another record high, 16717, see related news

S&P 500 is another key index in US markets, have a similar trend too. closed at 1923 last Friday, a fresh record in the history, see Wall Street Journal.

How about NASDAQ? Nasdaq closed at 14-year high of 4357 at 5 Mar 2014. Media cannot use a record high for NASDAQ, because its record high was set in 2000 during the dot.com bubble, where NASDAQ soared above 5000 before collapsing. Is NASDAQ actually heading to another rally?

Now, how about Bursa Malaysia? It remains as boring as it can be, as usual. Bursa also closed at a record high of 1887 on 19 May 2014. A 1900 seems to be so close, and so far. Will Bursa breaks the history as well? If it really does, I hope it comes with volume.