Tuesday, 31 December 2013

Last day of 2013: free movie ticket?

Experienced investors in KLSE will know that each year, towards the end of the last trading day, something interesting always happen in KLSE -- only in Malaysia.

Last year, the last trading day, I recorded the trading details here.
In the last 15 minutes, KLCI was pulled to new high, a miracle that is not miracle in Malaysia.

What is going to happen today? Yesterday the last 15 minutes KLCI has already been manipulated to new high. So, I think today a pretty high chance that the same thing will happen. Don't forget, KLCI is 1872 now - historical high. Let's enjoy movie this afternoon.

Movie time: 4:45 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. GMT +8
Venue: Up to you, can be in a broker branch, can be your home
Movie ticket: As long as you have a trading account in KLSE

So, sit back, relax and enjoy the free movie brought to you buy Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange.

Wishing everyone a happy 2014 new year.

Edit @ 5:11 p.m. Malaysia time: I was wrong. This year has no drama to watch. KLCI just closed as usual.

Saturday, 28 December 2013

KLSE: HIBISCUS "cannon after horse"

This is a 马后炮 analysis of HIBISCUS, i.e. analyze only after the fact has happened.

Share price started moving since 6/12/2013, and the 4th big candle was on 13/2/2013. No announcement yet. But good outcome of Block 50 Oman Drilling was speculated, which is why the share price has gone up from ~RM2.10 to ~RM2.70, nearly 30% in just one week.


With no drilling results announced and this kind of share price movement + volume, I have thought the same -- good news from the oil drilling project. 

Following that, 2 black candles are drawn on the daily graph, 16 and 17 Dec 2013, with low volume. This would be a normal "washing" process, from my experience. I wouldn't even mind if I hold the share.

What is really scary is the 3 big black candles after that, accompanied by huge volume and big drop.Yet, no news were announced on these date -- 18, 19 and 20 Dec 2013.

Then, on 23rd, the company requested for suspension of trading.That's it. A request for suspension of trading, in Bursa Malaysia, if the day before the price is a big drop, then it just mean that the news to be announced are bad news. As simple as that.

Even worse, on 24th, a further suspension was requested.

On the same day, the results was announced.

On 26th, open low + top volume stock. That's it. 

Personally, I do not believe this is part of the washing process, to use a failure in oil exploration to wash out retail investors. What I look at this is that the "big fish" is far more aggressive than I thought -- already know the drilling results before 23rd, for sure, then goreng up the stock 3 weeks before that: 1 week goreng up + selling, 1 week kept selling (hence big drop), the last week announced results.

After all, I wouldn't touch this stock.

Tuesday, 24 December 2013

KLSE: top up INSAS

Today INSAS was hovering between 0.89 - 0.905 for most of the time, only then to fall to 0.885 just before the market closed.

Well, I have observed the movement of this share for more than 1 month, pretty confident that 0.890 is the lowest price that the "big fish" will wash to, which is why I can accept to top up at the price of 0.895. 

Previously I have noticed how this share moved, in focused accumulation of share, I presented some of the detailed transactions while in INSAS and INGRESS, it is noticed that how similar the charts look like. So I decided to top up.


INSAS chart

The washing process of this share is just brutal. It really tests your patience. Still, I believe that 0.885 is still fine, and from the low volume recently, this share is definitely not finished its drama. Low volume + price consolidation = wash. I believe this wash is a very big one.

Lets see how it goes.

Tuesday, 17 December 2013

KLSE: historical high, does it smell bullish?

KLSE continues to break historical record high,but I didn't feel a sense of bullish in the stock market. What is actually lack of? There is only one definite answer: Volume! Without volume, new high means nothing.

Unconciously, KLCI has climbed to above 1850, closing at 1850.90 as of today. What? Previously many were unsure if it could break 1700, but now it is standing at 1850! Today volume is just 1 billion. From my experience, a bullish KLSE day volume can go up to 4 billion share. With only a quarter of previous huge volume, new high? 


What happens to KLCI for such a long time? No volume yet the index can continue raising. When will this illusion end?

So, what's next?

Thursday, 12 December 2013

KLSE: A share that I've held for the longest time

Today marks the 1st anniversary of the share that I've hold for the longest time, i.e. 1 full year. For 3 years of involvement in KLSE, I have never hold a stock for that long, due to the short to middle term of trading style.

This stock, due to whatever reason, I do not have the intention to sell. Regardless of how bad the market is, it doesn't move. In the bullish market, it doesn't move as well. Super low volume stock, super "cold" stock, yet I can hold for 1 year without any trading done.

From the chart above, what has come down in this year:
(I do not intend to disclose the stock name here, but it is not hard to figure it out)


i) Extremely low volume stock. People has said that it is not worthwhile to hold this, but I just didn't sell. Volume comes and goes a few times, yet I can hold until now.

ii) Dividend of 1 cent announced (totally a surprise). This dividend is equivalently to 3.4% of dividend yield, i.e. even without capital gain, I still earn 3.4% of interest in this stock.(still comparable to FD I guess)

iii) Recently this stock did move,not by a small margin. The price increase in recent month has gain me capital that outperformed all investment return that I've made this year, including the call warrant trade AIRASIA-CY

iv) Financially, not beautiful in terms of net profit. But I believe in the stock for several reasons: cash/share price =~ stock price, ZERO long term liability, small number of shares, is just a matter of time to explode.

v) Final and most important thing, I believe in my vision! 

Let's see how it plays out.