Tuesday, 31 December 2013

Last day of 2013: free movie ticket?

Experienced investors in KLSE will know that each year, towards the end of the last trading day, something interesting always happen in KLSE -- only in Malaysia.

Last year, the last trading day, I recorded the trading details here.
In the last 15 minutes, KLCI was pulled to new high, a miracle that is not miracle in Malaysia.

What is going to happen today? Yesterday the last 15 minutes KLCI has already been manipulated to new high. So, I think today a pretty high chance that the same thing will happen. Don't forget, KLCI is 1872 now - historical high. Let's enjoy movie this afternoon.

Movie time: 4:45 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. GMT +8
Venue: Up to you, can be in a broker branch, can be your home
Movie ticket: As long as you have a trading account in KLSE

So, sit back, relax and enjoy the free movie brought to you buy Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange.

Wishing everyone a happy 2014 new year.

Edit @ 5:11 p.m. Malaysia time: I was wrong. This year has no drama to watch. KLCI just closed as usual.

Saturday, 28 December 2013

KLSE: HIBISCUS "cannon after horse"

This is a 马后炮 analysis of HIBISCUS, i.e. analyze only after the fact has happened.

Share price started moving since 6/12/2013, and the 4th big candle was on 13/2/2013. No announcement yet. But good outcome of Block 50 Oman Drilling was speculated, which is why the share price has gone up from ~RM2.10 to ~RM2.70, nearly 30% in just one week.


With no drilling results announced and this kind of share price movement + volume, I have thought the same -- good news from the oil drilling project. 

Following that, 2 black candles are drawn on the daily graph, 16 and 17 Dec 2013, with low volume. This would be a normal "washing" process, from my experience. I wouldn't even mind if I hold the share.

What is really scary is the 3 big black candles after that, accompanied by huge volume and big drop.Yet, no news were announced on these date -- 18, 19 and 20 Dec 2013.

Then, on 23rd, the company requested for suspension of trading.That's it. A request for suspension of trading, in Bursa Malaysia, if the day before the price is a big drop, then it just mean that the news to be announced are bad news. As simple as that.

Even worse, on 24th, a further suspension was requested.

On the same day, the results was announced.

On 26th, open low + top volume stock. That's it. 

Personally, I do not believe this is part of the washing process, to use a failure in oil exploration to wash out retail investors. What I look at this is that the "big fish" is far more aggressive than I thought -- already know the drilling results before 23rd, for sure, then goreng up the stock 3 weeks before that: 1 week goreng up + selling, 1 week kept selling (hence big drop), the last week announced results.

After all, I wouldn't touch this stock.

Tuesday, 24 December 2013

KLSE: top up INSAS

Today INSAS was hovering between 0.89 - 0.905 for most of the time, only then to fall to 0.885 just before the market closed.

Well, I have observed the movement of this share for more than 1 month, pretty confident that 0.890 is the lowest price that the "big fish" will wash to, which is why I can accept to top up at the price of 0.895. 

Previously I have noticed how this share moved, in focused accumulation of share, I presented some of the detailed transactions while in INSAS and INGRESS, it is noticed that how similar the charts look like. So I decided to top up.


INSAS chart

The washing process of this share is just brutal. It really tests your patience. Still, I believe that 0.885 is still fine, and from the low volume recently, this share is definitely not finished its drama. Low volume + price consolidation = wash. I believe this wash is a very big one.

Lets see how it goes.

Tuesday, 17 December 2013

KLSE: historical high, does it smell bullish?

KLSE continues to break historical record high,but I didn't feel a sense of bullish in the stock market. What is actually lack of? There is only one definite answer: Volume! Without volume, new high means nothing.

Unconciously, KLCI has climbed to above 1850, closing at 1850.90 as of today. What? Previously many were unsure if it could break 1700, but now it is standing at 1850! Today volume is just 1 billion. From my experience, a bullish KLSE day volume can go up to 4 billion share. With only a quarter of previous huge volume, new high? 


What happens to KLCI for such a long time? No volume yet the index can continue raising. When will this illusion end?

So, what's next?

Thursday, 12 December 2013

KLSE: A share that I've held for the longest time

Today marks the 1st anniversary of the share that I've hold for the longest time, i.e. 1 full year. For 3 years of involvement in KLSE, I have never hold a stock for that long, due to the short to middle term of trading style.

This stock, due to whatever reason, I do not have the intention to sell. Regardless of how bad the market is, it doesn't move. In the bullish market, it doesn't move as well. Super low volume stock, super "cold" stock, yet I can hold for 1 year without any trading done.

From the chart above, what has come down in this year:
(I do not intend to disclose the stock name here, but it is not hard to figure it out)


i) Extremely low volume stock. People has said that it is not worthwhile to hold this, but I just didn't sell. Volume comes and goes a few times, yet I can hold until now.

ii) Dividend of 1 cent announced (totally a surprise). This dividend is equivalently to 3.4% of dividend yield, i.e. even without capital gain, I still earn 3.4% of interest in this stock.(still comparable to FD I guess)

iii) Recently this stock did move,not by a small margin. The price increase in recent month has gain me capital that outperformed all investment return that I've made this year, including the call warrant trade AIRASIA-CY

iv) Financially, not beautiful in terms of net profit. But I believe in the stock for several reasons: cash/share price =~ stock price, ZERO long term liability, small number of shares, is just a matter of time to explode.

v) Final and most important thing, I believe in my vision! 

Let's see how it plays out.

Saturday, 30 November 2013

INGRESS and INSAS: Aren't they look similar?

Previously i wrote something about my transactions before 13th Malaysia GE, one of which is related to INGRESS, see here. This share has later been privatized and  is now delisted.

Recall back the graph, which look like this, which attracted me to buy in:


Few days ago I posted something about INSAS, see here Now let's look at the graph for INSAS:


What a coincidence? The graphs look so similar!

So what does it mean? Let's see what happen in the next two weeks. I believe it wouldn't take long to see another wave of INSAS.

Wednesday, 27 November 2013

观察 INSAS: 主力集中

INSAS 最近大马交易所非常一个INARI)妈妈近期突然来个拉升,接下来经典洗盘。


11月25公布业绩,漂亮,net profit double。业绩很漂亮的结果有2种:

1.股价gap up,一去不回头
2.庄家要震仓。股价gap up,然后回调。

INSAS的主力采用的是第二种。昨天的trade detail我没有记录下来。不过我知道昨天是gap up开始,然后收阴的。gap up买入的通常是看到业绩很好然后追高的。庄家直接来一个洗盘。今天洗到很够力。洗到0.89才甘愿。看了今天交易记录,尾盘就来个拉升了。


INSAS buy sell



INSAS的孩子INARI,昨天出业绩。q-t-q净利X3,1.5 cent股息。这业绩好得不得了。结果洗盘方法一个样:gap up开市,洗盘,让不鉴定的持票者出局,尾盘同样来个拉升:



Sunday, 25 August 2013

KLCI 技术图





顺便一提,马股有个HA,HB,HC...的东西,put warrant,call warrant相反,股市的。之前凭单都是AMBANK,对付,容易赚钱。有空研究最近有没有其他银行put warrant





有些事情看不过眼,也不知道就是为什么。理性告诉自己他人的事情不用去理,感性跟我说看不过眼就是看不过眼。那种斗争的时刻,就是所谓的“对立面的冲突”(<Tuesday with Morrie> by Mitch Albom) 所提过的。


最迟就是到年底。也没有什么更糟糕的了。不习惯也习惯了。 经一事,长一智。换个角度想,这种经验还真难得,其他地方都找不到了只要想,时间很快就会过去的。

Thursday, 22 August 2013

研究 MAYBULK Call Warrant

今天股市大跌开市,一开始就是 -17点。过后1小时里面 -25,过后又变成 -15,让人以为 KLCI 的奇迹又将再次发生。结果今天不一样了。过后继续跌。

今天追踪了 MAYBULK-CI 的 buyer 和 seller,看看庄是怎么交易 call warrant 的。

来点基本资料, 看 Bursa Malaysia


股数: 50 M


Exercise price: 1.30
Conversion ratio: 2:1

21-8-2013 闭市价:0.235
21-8-2013 母股:1.75

Premium = 0.235*2 + 1.30 - 1.75 / 1.75 = 1.1%

这是 MAYBULK 最能交易的 CW,原因很简单:成交量最大,premium 低,买卖价差不大,不会贵。可惜的是到期日只有3个月。

今天看着股价变动,看着 CW 买卖价钱变动,发觉原来 CW 买卖价钱完全跟着母股买卖的。价钱?当然庄家了。相信电脑 set  formula,母股买卖价钱什么,CW 买卖什么价钱。今天的 buyer 排队都是 3000 lot 排,都是 1000 lot 卖。只有发行商那么而已。


             BUY QTY       BUY      SELL      SELL QTY

MAYBULK                   1.76      1.77
MAYBULK-CI    3000        0.235     0.240        1000

MAYBULK                   1.75      1.76
MAYBULK-CI    3000        0.230     0.240        1000

MAYBULK                   1.77      1.78
MAYBULK-CI    3000        0.240     0.245        1000

MAYBULK                   1.74      1.75
MAYBULK-CI    3000        0.225     0.235        1000

MAYBULK                   1.73      1.75
MAYBULK-CI    3000        0.220     0.235        1000

MAYBULK                   1.73      1.74
MAYBULK-CI    3000        0.220     0.230        1000

基本上就是母股 buyer price 一变动,下 1 cent,CW buyer price立刻下调0.005.立刻,自动。明显就是电脑操纵。

其实庄家价钱不差。比如母股 buyer 1.75 时候,CW 0.230 价。买到折合母股是 1.76,有点亏本。当然,相信电脑程序随着情况调动 formula。

不会糟糕。OSK 的 Call warrant有做功课,是可以交易的。

Friday, 16 August 2013

MYR 马币贬值

我不想在这里谈外汇,因为我对这方面一知半解。可是近期的我会一直打开 Ringgit Forex Exchange 来看。我也不是有追外汇兑换率的,只是这几个星期,MYR 真的是吓坏了我。而且上个星期 开始动回 Options 主要马币失去信心。

myr forex

1. 记得去年可以令吉人民币是1:2的。现在什么?剩下1.86而已!1对2去了哪里?

2. EUR:MYR印象之中之前都是在 4:1 徘徊的。walao,今天打开来看,4.37!自己吓了一跳!

3. SGD 新币。不用了。创10新高。报纸大势报导了。记得2004的2.25的。今天已经来到2.58了。

4. GBP 英镑。之前明明没有超过5的。竟然几个星期里面来到 5.12.

5. 美元。哪里还有之前看到的3.0X?天,已经来到3.27了!


关于人性 关于诚信



我比较不认同的是对马股的评语 -- 马股是用来炒的。没有学人家炒股就动股票?马股不能动的。2、3线股没有成交量的。原来在有些人的眼中,股票只能用炒才能赚钱的。原来他曾经是一家上市公司的董事。买股真的得看管理层的诚信。那家公司我一听就知道是炒股。所以,炒股还是别动好了。没有诚信的管理层只会顾自己的口袋而已。股东的?吃自己。



Monday, 12 August 2013

NYSE: Options being excercised

Options exercised后,买 put option 权利把 options 变成母股。这样只要目前股价 < strike price,都是值得的。

BAC put options

比如上面,我8月2了 put options,premium 130左右。但是的 put options strike price 是 15,可是上个星期到期日时候 BAC (Bank of America Corporation) 股价才 14.45。BAC Share Price.意思就是 put options 的 buyer 可以用 14.45 股票,然后用 15 我。必须以 strike price 股票。所以户口出现 500 unit  BAC 母股。

当然,立刻母股价差。算上卖 premium的,还是不过,手上握有 BAC 母股,随时可以翻盘。

Friday, 9 August 2013

NYSE: Options 学习中

刚刚把上个星期卖得put options close 掉了。

Put options MSFT

8月5日我做seller,卖 MSFT 的 put options。MSFT,就是 Microsoft。当天的 MSFT 母股是大约是 31.80.

我这个 options 到期日是8月16日,strike price 31.意思就是股价跌过31,我亏钱。当天我的卖价是0.17. 买掉后,我会得到premium,从买家手上拿到的premium。

刚刚看到MSFT涨了,我卖掉的put options就跌了。因为我之前卖掉,所以理论上我必须买回来close position。如果不买也可以等到到期自动close。但是万一到期MSFT母股有什么三长两短我就必须用更高的价钱买回我的options。只要当时的价钱高过0.17(我的卖家),我就是亏钱。


事实上,MSFT 昨天的股价波动很大:(资料来源:Yahoo Finance

MSFT Aug 2013

昨天的股价曾经下探 USD 31,也就是我options 的 strike price。所以昨天我打开虚拟账户的时候户口是大亏的,因为昨天options的价钱最高来到0.34:

MSFT Options Aug13

最后第二根红蜡烛,就是2013年8月7日的。中间来到0.34的高价,超过我卖价的一倍。如果那时候我买回来 buy to close, 立刻亏50%。还好MSFT的股价昨天闭市收盘高,所以昨天的options闭市时0.12。今天开始options直接下探0.08,我就close position了。


Wednesday, 7 August 2013

NYSE: Options 基本研究


Options,中文选择权。东西2学过。过后不了了之。最近大马货币实在担心。继续存在马币,到时候1nasi lemak,的,RM 1那种,不要RM 10 那么难听,RM 5不知道得到吗?

选择权,或者期权,就是可以选择的。可以选择买卖。这里来个最简单的介绍。选择权可以买可以卖。就是说你可以做散户,也可以做庄家。Call warrant你只可以买而已,卖的call warrant的人都是银行来的,银行做庄。

Options 这种金融衍生产品当然是美国开始的。美国最厉害这种东西了。Options 分 call 和 put。和马股的 call 和 put warrant意思一样。买call就是看涨,买put就是看跌。你可以 buy call/buy put/sell call/sell put,任你玩。

在马来西亚买家卖家叫 buy sell。在美国叫 bid ask。我还是喜欢马来西亚的叫法。

来个超级菜鸟的 sell option 虚拟交易:

sell put option AAPL

2013年8月1日我sell AAPL 的put option。AAPL,大家都知道的APPLE,在美国NASDAQ交易。卖价0.72.Strike price (exercise price)是 USD 450. 

这种情况,就如call warrant,会有2个case:

1.options到期前,AAPl股价跌过 450
那么put option buyer可以用跌过450的股价买股票(i.e. market price at that time),然后用450的价钱卖给我。

2.到期时股价超过 450,那么options buyer不会exercise 那个options,所以我所卖掉的 premium就是白赚。

图中的options到期日是8月2日。当天AAPl闭市462.见 YAHOO Finance

超过我的strike price。所以我卖掉option的钱是白赚的。当然,系统会自动帮我close position(buy to close)。


Monday, 15 July 2013

La Perouse -- 只有漂亮可以形容

La Perouse,名字知道法国命名地方位于Sydney南方地方衔接一个小岛,叫 bare island。地方,只有漂亮可以形容。了。

这次去爬山。我很喜欢爬山。这小片丛林叫 botany bay national park。单程1小时,不会很难走。澳洲有个专为爬山而设的网站,里面资料很齐全,叫 Wildwalks

这次去的是 Henry Head, 资料在这里:Henry Head


la perouse view

洁白的沙滩,叫 congwong beach。

congwong beach

小岛 bare island,二战时期是监狱,现在有tour guide。上面插着澳洲国旗:

bare island


Australian, kite

爬山爬到这个地方,brown rocks,鬼佬钓鱼的地方。

brown rocks

爬山爬到 henry head,看过去是一望无的 south pacific ocean。漂亮!

Henry Head


Friday, 12 July 2013

EASTLND 炒股 -- 看庄表演

续 HARVEST 和 NICORP 炒风后,最新的连续剧是由 EASTLND 担任主角。传闻有人要收购这公司。新闻请看这里:谋划收购一上市公司

这种炒股没有兴趣。这个主要看看把戏怎么玩法。看看下图trade details。

EASTLND Trade details

11 a.m. 过后极速拉抬,只有筹码高度集中可以做到事情。这种情况下,普通散户如果看盘,容易进去。结果只有几种:

1. 开始注意进去。10分钟10% 不是问题。但是这种玩法必须盯盘!必须非常严格执行目标价,比如了 0.90 肯定卖。要不然看到 0.900 来到 0.915 不卖话,盈利容易蒸发。适合这种了,因为看到这种拉抬不肯放手的。结果就是完蛋。

2. 拉抬到 (0.85)一半进去,太迟了。已经了。

3. 拉倒 (0.90)进去。结果拉抬完毕(时候当然知道已经完毕),结果立刻中套。


这种炒股,看看 trade detail 拿经验就好。看看庄怎么表演。





Wednesday, 10 July 2013

AIRASIA 认购凭单调整详解

今天亚航 X 上市,我还特地早上开着电脑等开始。哪里知道 tony 的钱真的不是那么容易赚的。 1.26 开市,成交量第一,1.25 闭市。一点 "kang tou" 都没有得捡。sien 掉。IPO 抽中的也什么甜头都没有。根本就没有gap up。

我也顺便把 call warrant 放了。AIRASIA-CY。不敢收太久。还有3个月到期,AIRASIA 走势图其实不错,只是我不想再抱票了,怕死 kiasi


AIRASIA 的凭单也不少。选AIRASIA-CY就只因为成交量。那么多孩子,只有这个最有交易。溢价也不高,所以就买进了。这是第二次买入 call warrant,第一个是去年交易的,MUDAJYA-CH -- 这里。1星期亏损接近15%。

AIRASIA-CY 曾经因为AIRASIA的特别股息也调整exercise price 和 conversion ratio。本来是这样的:

Exercise Price = RM 2.85
Conversion Ratio = 4:1

因为特别股息,调整详情可以看 Bursa Malaysia AIRASIA-CY

Adjustment Factor ("AF") = (P – D) / (P) 

P exdate 闭市价。D dividend (RM 0.18)。这里 exdate 是 3月11日。那么P 就是 3月10闭市RM 3.00. 那么 AF 就是 0.94.

的 exercise price 就是AF = 2.85*0.94 = RM 2.679
Exercise Ratio 就是 1/AF * Exercise ratio = 1/0.94 * 1/4 = 0.26598,就是3.76:1

我买的时候 AIRASIA 母股 3.03, 算到来溢价是:

0.115*3.76 + 2.679 - 3.03 = 2.7%

不会高。gearing ratio 是 3.03/(0.115*3.76) = 7。


Tuesday, 9 July 2013

INARI 申请转主板

INARI 上个星期五申请星期一暂停交易上半场。消息出来后,原来是换名跟申请转主板。这种上升趋势中暂停交易的股,通常都是好事来的。详情看大马交易所 Bursa Malaysia Announcement: Bursa Malaysia

消息出来后,人家都会买。昨天2:30分开市之前我有想过冲进去买。可是最后还是下不了手。因为知道消息出来后都不可以再追,已经太迟了!决定不进场。结果下半场开市 0.770 闭市 0.730. 进去的话立刻中套。本来有货在手的加码还无所谓,我这种进去的就等着做水鱼。




Tuesday, 2 July 2013

2013 Q2 季度检讨

这个季度成绩,一句话:不及格。总资本 -10.63% 对比 KLCI 的 +6.1% (Q2)。半年成绩 -5.76%。




大选前操作分析 -- 结论




很多股项,我错过了就没有追的。这一次怎么会有那种“不买就没有得买”的感觉?都怪自己被综指 5月6号的大涨吓坏了。害怕再不买盈利就会跑掉。因为害怕赚不到钱而买股的心态,要怎么去赚钱?




Thursday, 27 June 2013


在 财报出不来 神仙都救不活 里有讲述关于 PATIMAS 被打入冷宫的记录。现在又有一间中招了。



这种跳空低开的股票,肯定是有坏消息的。看 Bursa 公告,才知道原来已经被列入 PN17 公司了。看这里:Bursa Malaysia MAEMODE


看了我的资料库,这股竟然是属于不错的。原因是 Low PE,赚钱(最近2个季度开始亏钱)再加上每年有股息。这种公司原来也可以出问题。因为财务报告上有很多资料,我并没有去看。


鸟样股票 分析财务问题。原来债务太高了,利息公司盈利,怎么存活?


Wednesday, 26 June 2013

KLCI 技术篇:尝试站在缺口上面?

昨天的图画 KLCI回补缺口?》,我已经说了,KLCI要继续向上,这个星期必须站上缺口的上面,也就是大约1742 或者 1743点。今天,综合指数已经在挑战这个缺口支撑/阻力点了。

KLCI 挑战缺口
KLCI 挑战缺口 - 正在寻求突破颈线


至于KLCI的下一个有力支撑在哪里?我觉得是200 EMA的线,也就是年线。目前是1687点。只要跌破了1687,我觉得KLCI是没有希望了的。

Tuesday, 25 June 2013

KLCI 综合指数回补缺口 + 套利 PRLEXUS

2013年5月6日 KLCI 大跳空高开,一个多月以来一直都没有回补缺口。现在外围局势不稳定。今天第一次试探回补。

KLCI 缺口回补
KLCI 综合指数缺口回补?

这缺口一旦回补,技术上来说 KLCI 短期无望了。将会继续调整一段时期。如果要继续向上,这个星期里面一定要站在缺口上面,才有机会继续。如果不是,那么基本上来说短期无望挑战高点。


KLCI Summary
25/6/2013 KLCI 一览

PRLEXUS 今天套利了。根据我的观察是继续调整或者横摆最少3个月。之前2.40的时候握住不放,结果今天才甘愿放手。再一次,我不会卖股。盈利从几天前的 30++% 变成 10%。其实也是不错的回酬。只是我还学不会放手。今天卖出也是看到短期目标达成了,而且也觉得横摆的几率很大,所以就选择拿现金了。


Monday, 24 June 2013


续上个星期的大戏 《KLCI 再次上演好戏》,今天涉及股项全部补涨/补跌。这次马后炮。Batu Kawan top gainer 第一没有意外的。其他补涨包括 COASTAL, TDM, CBIP 等等。就是 STAR 和 JCY 了。

上个星期五 STAR 最后 2  buy up transaction 不知道的,变成水鱼了。

JCY 暴跌,完全打回原形。

CBIP 全部停板开市。

证明上个星期可能只是疏忽还是电脑故障之类的。反正就是没有什么。不是第一次出现,以前发生只是没有 limit up down 而已。