The first day was 7 Oct 2014.
I use the term adjustment, because at this point it is sure that this is an adjustment since KLCI index drop far below its 200MA, i.e. year line. I don't know if it is a bear or not at this point.
Small and medium capital shares adjust really a lot. In just a few days time, my buddy INARI has drop more than 30%.
My profit has evaporated significantly. This is what happen to INARI price, and how my feeling is manipulated by the market all these days.
8-10-2014: First day GAP DOWN, continue holding, hoping it to get back. I told myself
that if the coming rebound has no volume, I will sell it.
9-10-2014: Small rebound. It happened that this rebound did not have the volume I expected.
Yet I convinced myself to hold. Why? I am longing it to get back to its
"normal" position that it used to be, i.e. above RM 3.20. (mistake 1)
10-10-2014: Second day GAP DOWN. It is painful, terribly painful. One day of plunge
can get back to the price which is 4 months ago, i.e. if I sell now, I lost 4 months of
opportunity cost. I am still too proud to lose at this point.
13-10-2014: Third day GAP DOWN. Horrible sell off. Price went back to 7 months ago.
I can assure you that seeing your profit evaporate day by day is an extreme
14-10-2014: Fourth day GAP DOWN, cannot tahan (stand) anymore, SELL ALL. (mistake 2)
15-10-2014: Continue going down, totally out of my expectation. Of course I felt
fortunate that I've sold it yesterday.
16-10-2014: Fifth day GAP DOWN. A total drop of 35%+ from 3.18 to today's low.
All happen in 1 week time. The opening price is RM 2.04.
Even though I know that this is a bargain price;
Even though I know that technically, the price is completely out of BB lower band
(i.e. a rebound is very soon);
Even though I know that it will not continue to gap down everyday;
Yet the emotional fear has stopped me from buying. I am too scared to buy in.
I guess this gives me a taste of bearish market,
that no matter how low the price is;
that previously you've thought that you would have bought in (probably all in?) at this bargain price,
that who is so stupid to sell INARI at RM 2.04;
But the market will scare you from doing so. I admit that I am completely scared by the market at that time.
After all, seeing that happened on 15-10-2014 is that it open greenly in the morning,
and at the end of the market it went down from RM 2.50 to RM 2.22 to close at the lowest
price. How dare for me to buy in if I see this kind of transaction?
Logic says: hey, INARI 35% discount price, when will you see this bargain again?
Emotion argues: OMG, it has been free fall for so many days, how dare you
catch the falling knife? never die before?
At the decision moment, this time, my emotion won. I lost my logical
thinking seeing the market can be red like that.
17-10-2014: Strong rebound, I couldn't believe what has happened. A big slap to
people that have sold it in past few days.
After selling, I felt fortunate that the price continue going down.
After the rebound on 17-10-2014, what is my feeling then?
The market is controlled by big fish;
My emotion is manipulated by the market;
My decision is controlled by my emotion;
So my decision is controlled by the market, which should not be the case.
[to be continued]