Monday, 16 May 2016

Transferwise: the best way to transfer money from Australia to Malaysia

Sometime ago I want to transfer some money from Australia to Malaysia. I researched for many companies to look for the best (cheap and effective) way. Here it is.

Trasnferwise is the best company you could possibly find for fund transfer from Australia to Malaysia (and I believe for other major currencies to MYR too). Established in the UK, Transferwise supports all major currencies and is invested by Sir RichardBranson, the founder of Virgin group. 


Advantages:

1. It uses mid-market rate. This means that your transfer rate is even better than BNM's buyer rate, i.e., the exchange rate they offer is exceptional. In contrast, traditional telegraphic transfer (TT) using banks comes with a 5-10% spread as compared to BNM forex rate.

2. Small transaction fee and no other hidden fee will be incurred. For AUD-MYR, you will be charged 0.7% of the amount you transfer. And because you do not "lose" in forex rate,  this means that the money you receive is only 0.7% less compared to the "optimal amount". I bet you can find any company doing better than this.

3. Fast and efficient. From my experience, the service is very impressive. I received the fund the next business day after they received my fund.

4. Reliable and secure. In the process of fund transfer, you will be updated at each stage about your fund status. This gives you peace of mind. You can read some review here. I am not surprised that this company receives 9.5/10 for their service. 

If you want to transfer fund from overseas to Malaysia, abandon the exorbitant fees charged by banks and start using Transferwise by registering here. Yes, I have to tell you that this is my referral link. If you signed up using this link you will have a free transfer of up to GBP 500. And if you successfully refer your friends and they have made a transfer, you will be rewarded with cash.



Wednesday, 11 May 2016

So a good financial report does not mean a jump in share price

This is subtly related to a previous article the consequence of betting on quarterly reportIn the article, I talked about the lesson learnt from betting on financial reports. Now the market seems to "evolve" to another higher standard.

Malaysia International Shipping Corporation (KL: MISC) announced its quarter report on last Friday, 6/5/2016. The company's profit rises 17% quarter-over-quarter. Despite a good quarter report, out of a sudden, MISC plunged 13% on Monday 9/5/2016, with no apparent reasons.

This reminds me of the opposite example, IOICORP. On 16/11/2015, IOICORP posted a loss of 719M, downed 500%+ quarter-over-quarter. For a blue chip stock to incur a loss, people were expecting a big drop in the share price. However, nothing happened on the next trading day and the stock was performing just like normal.

What does this imply? The financial world is changing at all time. So the stock market changes pattern too. The "correlation" between financial results and short term stock price movement seems to disappear. While fundamentals are still important, my view is that its importance and significance has diminished to a lower "weighting". If this is true, then the old way of "long term investment" may no longer work. The big question is: what is the more important factor now? This is a question worth contemplating.

Friday, 18 March 2016

Leaving Australia for good: the tension of opposites

It has become pretty clear that I will have less than 1 month in Australia. Nothing is going to stop it.

Living for 3.5 years, Sydney has become an ordinary city to me, nothing more, nothing less. The excitements that I have had when I first came to this beautiful place have unfortunately, yet inevitably, turned into normalcy. The good things have been taken for granted and the bad things have already been accustomed to. Ridiculously, the city that crowned the top 10 most livable cities in the world, a place that so many people long to visit, is also the place that I cannot wait to leave.

I experience the tension of opposites*: part of me want to leave here so badly, yet part of me know that there is nothing better back in Malaysia. When I think of I have enough of Sydney, the mind starts generating all kinds of reasons to justify the thought, e.g., I miss Malaysia food. But then I also know that I am going to miss Australia very much: the fresh air, the days of cycling and the fun of swimming & snorkeling in the sea, etc. More importantly, I like the way Australians think, the mindset, the "software", which determines the "quality" of a community.

Which makes me realising, once again, that you always get some and lose some at the same time. Life is only fair this way. Time flies and there is not much I can do to hold on to all these things. This experience only happens once in a lifetime. I cannot, and do not want to leave any regrets while in Australia. This means that, appreciating all moments while I am still here is the best I can do to for the rest of the days in Australia.


*The tension of opposites was mentioned in  <<Tuesdays with Morrie>>, my favorite book written  by Mitch Albom

Sunday, 17 January 2016

A(nother) market turmoil

Recently, another market turmoil has emerged. Major overseas market are having big drops. Well, except KLSE.

This time, apparently sparked by a plunge in crude oil price and fears about Chinese economy growth, has the overseas stock market to drop 2-3%, literally every second day. Chinese economy growth problem? Really?

Brent crude oil: Looking back only to realise that oil really start to drop since 2H 2014. And it drop really quickly. I thought it would stop at around USD 40/barrel, but the market always surprises you. I has now come down to below USD 30/barrel. The financial market is interesting: the crude oil price has rarely gained any considerable attention in the past, and it is now ubiquitous on the media.

(Print-screened from Bloomberg)

NASDAQ: I have a dream of NASDAQ to shot up to 10000 points in coming years for another round of technology bubble. But it now looks like an impossible task?


(Print-screened from Indexq.org)

DAX is literally dropping 2-3%+ every second day for the past week!


NIKKEI is literally dropping every second day too.


On the other hand, KLSE is like a heaven, completely oblivious to what is happening globally. Magic always happens in Malaysia, going along with the phrase "Malaysia Boleh".

KLSE

The last "noticeable" adjustment occurred in Aug 2015, coming with no signal (at all). In less than six months, another round is coming. Frankly, no one can stand seeing stocks dropping to such an extent every second day, let alone that the bearish market has yet to be confirmed.

I am wondering, the market hasn't even drop for 20% and the market sentiment is already so negative, what if something worse is yet to come?

I would like to see if this would turn out to be another adjustment.

Sunday, 10 January 2016

2015 Review

Generally,

1. 2015 signals the rise of put warrants in KLSE, which is something that I did not touch at all in 2015, which turned out to be a correct decision: when something seems so hot in the market and everybody is trying to make a slice from it, the wise action to do is to stay away from it.

2. 2015 also sees the birth of CHINA-A50 call and put warrants. Catching a correct trend could easily secure a profit of 20% in a week (and vice versa). I played once and that's it. China stock market is comparatively volatile and these structure warrants aren't meant to hold long.

3. 2015 is the year of export counters due to an abrupt depreciation of MYR. Glove stocks are the dominant players. Unfortunately I did not catch any of them.

About myself:

1. Dividend sums up to be RM 1338.19 -- not a big amount, really, but it is a bonus for me.

2. The number of trade I have transacted is close to the sum of 2011-2014, i.e., unbelievably high. Some are really good decisions, but followed by other bad decisions not long after. Still, I need to learn to hold cash without "feeling itchy on my hand".

3. I bought some CWs that if I continue holding I would have secure a huge profit. But there is no such thing anyway.

Using busyness as an excuse, I buy shares purely based on suggestions on the Internet. This is nothing to be proud of, but this is what I have done for the past year. Although quite a number of mistakes have been made, the overall return is satisfactory. Perhaps later this year I would have time to start making my own study on the market.

I set a high aim for 2016, hopefully to achieve it by the end of the year.




Sunday, 13 December 2015

US: The possibility of a rate hike

At this moment, the financial world couldn't have paid more attention to the next FOMC meeting on 15-16 Dec than any other thing.

Having kept the interest rate at 0.25% since Dec 2008, you always read news reporting the possibility of a rate hike in the US interest rate. This type of news is even more frequent this year, but there was no rate hike then.

In theory, a rate hike would be detrimental to the stock market. Therefore, whenever the stock market drops "considerably" in one day, the possibility of a rate hike will be the culprit. This is the case for last Friday when the US market once again bore the brunt and dropped sharply. Dow Jones and NASDAQ plunged 1.76% and 2.21% respectively while the Brent and WTI crude oil prices have slumped 4.53% and 3.10% respectively to a new low.

This causes a great pessimism in the market sentiment. People say that the market is going to crash after the rate hike. Yes, it does sound scary. But really? I mean, since when does a stock market crash become predictable? Let alone that the possibility of a rate hike has been rumouring in the market for months if not years such that the news would have been absorbed by investors and the effect would have been reflected in the current market.

Thinking from a different direction: would it be that there is no rate hike in the coming meeting, or that the rate hike is smaller than expected, such that the market is going the opposite direction as to what the public expects? Isn't this the way how the stock market works?

Tuesday, 8 December 2015

KL: The consequence of betting on quarterly report

This article was written entirely based on experience.

I like to bet on quarterly financial reports. The idea is simple. At the end of every month (esp. Feb, May, Aug and Nov) is the due date for companies to announce their quarterly reports. I like to buy in few weeks before the report was announced, such that if the report is good, the share will jump, snapping potential profit in short time.

However, this method of "playing" stocks seems to be tumbling this year. For whatever company that I bet on a good report, the opposite happened: share plunged after the reported was announced, causing losses.

PRIVA is the first example. I accumulated this counter in the beginning of May.  That is very naive of me. The result was announced on 28-5-2015 and it was a normal one, with a profit slightly less than the year-to-year quarter. On the next trading day, the share dropped 8%+. I cut loss not long after that. This has cost me 27% in less than 1 month.

The second experience is SIGN. This was mentioned before in a mistake on SIGN.  Because SIGN is an export counter, I was hoping that with the depreciation of MYR, I could profit from a good financial report.

SIGN is much more extreme. The very same thing happened twice! In Aug, the share plunged nearly 15% on the next day after the announcement. I lost the bet which cost me 25% in 2 weeks.

Not long after that, the share went up to the level before the announcement of Aug report. This gives an impression that the company is doing good in the coming quarter. However, the report which was announced at the end of Nov wasn't good as all. On the next day, SIGN plunged 15% for the second time.



SIGN drop after financial report


The third is GOB.

Prior to the announcement, the share has a big white candle, which of course I am very happy. I entranced in my own aspirations, as I always do. Then the company reported a loss. The next day GOB dropped 8.8%. This cost me to vomit out all profit.


GOB dropped after financial report


These examples may just be the tip on the iceberg. From these examples, it seemed that buying just before the quarterly report is no longer working, at least for small-cap companies. Looking at this trend, somewhere, someone seems to have the seer-like ability to predict in advanced.

Maybe there isn't any conspiracy theory, the company really wasn't performing.

Maybe there is a conspiracy theory, that the company manipulated the fiscal report such that a bad result was portrayed to wash out retail investors. If this is true, does it imply that holding a share for more than 3 months is not a good idea?

A very interesting trend is unfolding in KLSE.