Monday, 20 October 2014

Global market adjustment, what am I doing? (1)

Global markets drops consecutively in two weeks ago. As usual, Asian markets will follow the trend of western markets.  I believe these two weeks has been a turmoil for a number of investors. Unfortunately, I have to admit that I am one of them.

The first day was 7 Oct 2014.


I use the term adjustment, because at this point it is sure that this is an adjustment since KLCI index drop far below its 200MA, i.e. year line. I don't know if it is a bear or not at this point.


Small and medium capital shares adjust really a lot. In just a few days time, my buddy INARI has drop more than 30%. 



My profit has evaporated significantly. It is what it is. I will take this as a good experience. 





7-10-2014: First day drop, no feeling at all. Not even thought of selling.


8-10-2014: First day GAP DOWN, continue holding, hoping it to get back. I told myself that if the coming rebound has no volume, I will sell it.


9-10-2014: Small rebound. YES, this rebound did not have the volume I expected. I convinced myself to hold. Why? I am longing it to get back to its "normal" position that it used to be.

10-10-2014:  Second day GAP DOWN. It is painful, terribly painful. One day of plunge can get back to the price which is 4 months ago.


13-10-2014: Third day GAP DOWN. Horrible sell off. Price went back to 7 months ago. I can assure you that seeing your profit evaporate day by day is an extreme agony. I am totally lost.

14-10-2014: Fourth day GAP DOWN, cannot tahan (stand) anymore, SELL ALL.


15-10-2014: Continue going down, totally out of my expectation.


16-10-2014: Fifth day GAP DOWN. A total drop of 35%+ from 3.18 to today's low. All happen in 1 week time. The opening price is RM 2.04. Even though I know that this is a bargain price, even though I know that technically, the price is completely out of BB lower band (i.e. a rebound is very soon), even though I know that it will not continue to gap down everyday, yet the emotional fear stopped me from buying. And I am fear to buy in. I guess this gives me a taste of bearish market, that no matter how low the price is, that previously you've thought that you would have buy in at this bargain price, but the market will scare you from doing so. I admit that I am completely scared by the market at that time.

Logic says: hey, INARI 35% discount price, when will you see this bargain again? 
Emotion says: OMG, it has been free fall for so many days, how dare you  catch the falling knife? never die before? 

At the decision moment, this time, my emotion won. I lost my logical thinking seeing the market can be red like that.


17-10-2014: Strong rebound, I couldn't believe what has happened.

In two weeks time, I witness how my unrealized profit evaporate in days.
In two weeks time, I experience the anguish feeling in seeing the profit gone. 


After selling, I felt fortunate that the price continue going down.
After the rebound on 17-10-2014, what is my feeling then?
My emotion is completely controlled by the market, and I know this shouldn't be the case.


[to be continued]

Thursday, 9 October 2014

2014 Q3 Review

Return: +4.5% vs KLCI -1.9% (3 months)

Transactions: 3

 1. Sell PNE
I've been holding this share for 1.5 years. Not a bad return. Fortunately I have enough patience to wait for it. Thanks PNE. But one thing I must remember is that luck is an important factor. Who knows if it wouldn't move until 3 or 5 years? So I am really happy with this transaction.

2. Sell INSAS
This share has been grueling to me, finally cannot tahan (cannoot stand) and Sell INSAS. I don't have the patience that I have for PNE. Maybe one day in the future I will return, who knows?

3. Buy GHL
I love this transaction. This brings back me the "feeling" of short-term trading. I used to have this feeling, but the experience seems to disappear when I indulge myself too much in the stock market. Luckily I've regained this "feeling". Needless to say more, look at the chart:


9-9-2014: gap up with volume. I refrained from chasing high.

10-9-2014 to 18-9-2014: consolidation with low volume. I observed the movement. Telling myself that my target entry price will be around RM 1.05. Why? Because the closing price before gap up is RM 1.04. A "sincere" consolidation process shouldn't go below RM 1.04.

17-9-2014 already went down to RM 1.03, is in my entry price. But I did not look at the stock market on that day.

18-9-2014 I have something to do in the morning. Wait until I look at the price was already trading at RM 1.07. I didn't budge on the entry price this time. I queued for RM 1.05 and I just do my own thing. And it did match after that. I enjoyed an immediate return in a short time. What more could I ask for?

This is the trading style that I am looking at: wait for consolidation, find an entry price, do not chase high. Just let it happens its own way. If the transaction is not matched, just look for other opportunity. 

Sunday, 21 September 2014

KL: Sell INSAS

Finally, I admit my "mistake" for keeping INSAS. I hold this share for too long, longing for a higher return. The fact is that, I could have had the same return 6 months ago, when it soared from 0.90+ to 1.20+. But I chose to stay on. My capital just can't stay the same all the time. I decided to sell eventually.  



Usually a stock with "big fish" in play will move within 3 months after the first round, but INSAS is way too "exceptional". In 6 months, people can already buy other share and gain satisfactory return from the trading. So I have to "change horse" (i.e. switch stock), to look for other opportunities.

Regardless, I still think this is an undervalued stock. I understand that releasing its values and potentials is just a matter of time. But it is just too long for me to wait. And no dividend some more! Earn so much then no give dividend, how can?!

I've had enough with you. Bye.

Saturday, 26 July 2014

KL: Thanks PNE, Bye PNE

My first entry price is 0.295. At that time, the relevance for me to hold a share which is not making profit is the cash/share > share price:

Total share: 65.7 M
Total cash (@ 30/9/2013): 24.2 M
Cash/share = RM 0.37

RM 0.295/share to buy a share that has a cash/share of RM 0.37, too good to be true, isn't it?

When the share went up to RM 0.60, I am still holding it. I convinced myself that the relevance now is the NTA price of RM 0.94. That the share is traded at a price well lower than its NTA/share. So I still holding that.

When it went up to RM 1.10, I keep holding. This is where all relevance turns into irrelevance, all rationality becomes irrationality. There is no fundamentals to support this share at this price. Yet I even think of waiting the share to flip twice (i.e. 300% return). But when volume comes, I know that it is time to sell, regardless of what's going to happen next.

Looking back, the price movements come in 4 rounds. I am surprise that I can wait until the 4th round. I might have still kept holding it,  had it not been the candle on 2nd July 2014, where the volume is just too scary for me:

PNEPCB


I felt a sense of freedom after selling. And I know that is a correct decision to have some cash on hand.

P/S:
This company has some direct business transactions recently, and it involved a large amount of shares:

26 June 2014: 5M shares dispose through direct business transaction.
1 July 2014:  14M of shares  dispose through direct business transaction. (gee, this is substantial considering that the total share is only 65.7M) 

And recently many patterns come out, change in boardroom, change in director's interest etc: PNEPCB announcement 

The price for direct deal is RM 1.10, which is higher than the current market price. I do not know what is the intention. And there is no point dwelling into the reason, cause you will never know what is going on.

The important thing is: I am free from it. That's it.

Thursday, 17 July 2014

2014 Q2 Review

Return: +9.9% vs KLCI +0.8% (3 months)

Transactions: 4

1. Top up CHHB. details here
This was a mistake.

2. Sell CHHB
I need to use money. I am grateful that I picked the right share to sell. Easy: just sell the one which is losing money. Don't hope for a break even, it may come after you lost your patience. 

Lesson learnt: a 3% loss in 2 months. Not a big deal. But it serves to remind me in the future, that I should have sold it at the right timing.

3. Buy SHH
This should be the one like INGRESS last year, the same reason that I bought INGRESS last year. I am going to hold this share until it brings me huge return. I believe it wouldn't be long.

4. Involuntary trade due to a one-lot transaction.

Dividend: 1

INARI 2.0 cent


Review: The power of compound interest

I am still very focus on KLSE, although I start to keep an eye on US markets.

My strategy is still the same for this quarter, very simple: buy and hold. Nothing more.

I start to feel the power of compound interest, that even a 9.9% gain comes in as a considerable amount. This is the power of compound interest. Interest on top on interest. This is how rich people gets richer. This is how money brings more money.

Thursday, 10 July 2014

KL: CSL chart says it all

Few months ago I wrote something about is low PE shares attractive?

Interestingly, I mentioned CSL in that post. At that time (Jan 2014), it was traded at about RM 0.80.

Today, this share is traded at about RM 0.10. A picture says a thousand words: CSL weekly chart.



You know what happen by looking at the announcement. I am not going to say much about this.

Tuesday, 1 July 2014

US: What is after hours trading?

When you browse for quotes for stocks in US markets, you will see something like this:

after hours trading
(Picture print-screened from the The Wall Street Journal)

The price above is the usual closed price. The price below is the so-called after hours trading price. So what is after hours trading? While this may seems common in US, it is not the case, at least in KLSE.

US market trading hours are below:
(All times are in Eastern Time (ET). Eastern time refers to the time zone in the eastern part of US, not the time zone for eastern countries in the globe, e.g. Japan.)

1. Pre-Market Trading Hours: 4:00 a.m. to 9:30 a.m.

2. Trading time: 9:30 - 4:00 p.m. (Unlike KLSE which has a break time of 2 hours in the afternoon, no break in US markets. Break time even in market trading, what a Malaysian pattern? )

3. After hours trading: 4:00 - 8:00 p.m.

We see that apart from the normal trading hours, there is also a pre-market and after hours tradings, which are also known as extended hours trading.

The reason for this is for investors to trade outside normal trading hours (nonsense?).  This is because a lot of companies make announcement, e.g. quarterly report, corporate news before market open or after market closed.

For example, Chicago Board Options Exchange ( CBOE ) plans to  list options for  GoPro, Inc. (GPRO). (NB: This GPRO has nothing to do with the GPRO in KLSE, although they have exactly the same listing name.) This was announced at 17:05, 30 June 2014 (i.e. after market closed). Seeing this as a positive sentiment for the share, the share of GPRO rose during after hours trading:

(Picture taken from Nasdaq.com)


30 June 2014, 4:00 p.m. price: 40.55 (normal trading hours)
30 June 2014, 8:00 p.m. price: 42.15 (after hours trading)
Change: 3.95%


30 June 2014, 4:00 p.m. price: 40.55 (normal trading hours)
1 Junly 2014, 7:30 a.m. price: 43.37 (pre-market trading)
Change: 6.95%


The price movement will continue until the market opens. Therefore, after hours trading and pre-market trading provides a very good indicator on how the market reacts to the news, and a good insight of the price once the market opens as normal. 

Extended hours tradings give investors to trade at a flexible time. It can also serve as the time to "digest" the news just announced by companies. In addition, for pre-market trading, it can reflect the conditions in other markets, especially EU markets since EU markets start earlier than US markets.


Last but not least, some facts about extended hours trading:
  • they are REAL trading, requires both buyer and seller for a transaction to match (in US, filled is used instead of matched).
  • All stocks listed in NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX companies can be traded in extended hours trading. 
  • Only for stock trading, does not include options.
  • A lower extended hours trading activity (lower volume) will result in a wider spread (i.e. a larger difference between bid and ask price. Again, in US they use bid and ask instead of buy and sell.) 
  • Share price change, i.e. % change is still calculated based on closed price during normal trading hours. Chart only shows the price movement during normal trading hours.
  • You can view the most active, most advanced and most decline for after hours trading on Nasdaq.com
I hope you have an idea what is extended hours trading now after reading this.